Medium Ukraine (Politics)

[Wile E. Coyote]

Ukraine is destroying the Putin Legend, much as the Red Army destroyed the Hitler Legend.

The idea that Ukraine (or anyone else) needs to make concessions or back down, or Putin will inevitably continue to advance, until victory is acheived is now being questioned.

Russia might be bigger. stronger, have a desrved reputation for brutality and victory and so on, but Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience, and now has......a chokehold.

A ceasefire would now be good for Russia.

A peace treaty will be a defeat but still save Vladdy. Next contest Armenia.

The high risk gamble is to see if Russia can break the chokehold and make people beleive the legend again.

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

1 year ago Ukraine launched the spectacular Operation Spiderweb. Drones destroying multiple expensive sophisticated Russian aircraft parked on Russian tarmac. Russian commentators were outraged.

Today, the situation for Russia is much worse, its not newsworthy, its just basic mathes, Russian Milatary bloggers are reporting that their Ivans are now heavily outnumbered by Ukrainian drones.

Ukrane was aiming to produce over 4 to 5 million First-Person View (FPV) drones, with another 10 million unmanned systems, this year. Rybar reporting their guys are seeing 20/30/70 drones for each Ivan in some areas. Of course lots of these will be surveillance, supplying Ukranian logistics etc.

Might be overexaggeration....Still......Stop thinking of spectaculars, etc

Ukraine Question for the day....pause......Are Russians now actually outnumbered?

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]

There is something of a mystery going on in the Ukraine war. It is well known the Russians are in deep do-do with their strategic jewel in the crown, the Crimean peninsula. It's running out of both oil and military wherewithal.

There are three ways the Russians can resupply their Crimean forces:
1. The road along the north of the Sea of Azov from Russia, through the occupied parts of eastern Ukraine and across the isthmus to Crimea.
2. Ferrying stuff direct from Russian ports to Crimean ports.
3. The direct route across the Kerch bridge.

The first one is suffering very badly because Ukrainian drones can now take out pretty much anything venturing along the so-called Highway of Death. All the boats servicing the second route have been sunk by Ukrainian drones.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Why change what they are doing?

For Russia its a case of (err) we have only lost 270 trucks (Ivans) so far since May, that is still a small percentage of those using those roads, through the occupied parts of eastern Ukraine and across the isthmus to Crimea.

Its going relatively pretty well and certainly less risky than a trip to the Front.

We could categorise it as say (I guess) 1% or 2 % chance of being struck by drone for what is very good money for drivers willing to take that risk.

You dont change something for loss of 270 trucks, thery have plenty more of these as well as plenty of drivers......

[Mick Harper]

I haven't heard any statistics that contradict you so I have been misled by Ukrainian ra-ra-ism. Though they ought to be able to functionally close the road (it seems to me). This is going to be the schwerpunkt in future wars.

[Mick Harper]

Roman Abramovich may have a part in the ending of the war. He was in talks with Zelensky in Kyiv yesterday.

Abramovich is particularly well-connected to the oligarchs (being one himself), to the provincial governments (as ex-Governor of Chukotka Autonomous Okrug) and the West (as ex-owner of Chelsea) while being faute de mieux a Kremlin loyalist (he is under all manner of western sanctions).

Unless they were just comparing notes about Israel as a bolt hole for people facing corruption charges.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Zelensky wants peace talks.

Putin wants to be show able to show something before he enters negotiations this includes:

At least the 4 annexed terrotories, as these are now part of Russia, in Russian law.

No Ukrainian EU NATO membership.

Limitations on the size of the Ukranian army.

If he can get the above, at that point Putin will probably discuss peace, safe in the knowledge that domestically he is safe, and there will be future economic benefits to Russia, including deals with the US.

My thinking is that Zelensky is trying to demonstrate that he wants peace, and there are indeed some tempting immediate proposals on the table, like the offer for each side to stop attacking infrastructure, which would actually greatly benefit Russia.

My guess is that Vladdy the Baddy will "nyet", and instead opt for limited, rolling mobilisations to start getting them going forward again as the Spring offensive has stalled, and he does need show forward movement, as even his US friends, are not willing to pressurise Ukraine into giving up the annexed territories' when Russia is not actually gaining ground.........

[Wile E. Coyote]

Am I the only one that thinks that this post facto criticism of Vladdy the Bunkered from Mosowvites is unfair, ie that he should somehow have realised that if he bombed Kyiv the Ukranians would unleash drones on Moscow.

If either Gerashimov had cracked on as ordered, or Prigozhin had not reverse ferretted, then this would never have happened.

In fact the only reason that Ukraine even opted to expand its independent drone and Flamingo production, was because they were running out of artillery shells, and Jake Sullivan had peviously put red lines on any weaponry use within Russia

Vladdy couldnt possibly predict that Ukraine would eventually start producing millions of drones and all this shit, like 3 hour waits for rationed fuel was going to happen......

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

I am not sure that Vladdy the Baddy is cut out for war leadership, when Kyev was originally hit with Russian drones and missiles, Zelensky blamed the lack of defences on poor old boxing champ Vitali Klychko as Mayor, and the West for not providing more Patriot sytems. Putin has rather idiotically rushed in more air defences, to Moscow, promising that all Ukranian drones will be shot down, which is mightily pissing off everybody outside of Moscow.

All Ukraine now has to do is follow the Harper plan of sending towards Moscow 600 cheap drones, each night and hey presto Russia will be out of all its expensive air defences.........

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

The Ukranians are now shutting down the Kerch bridge by not attempting to destroy it as they did previously. They are treating it as just another a highway by flying over multiple cheap drones that have no capability of destroying the bridge, but could destroy a truck.

The problem for Russia is that unlike the "Land Bridge" the 300-mile coastal route along the Novorossiya/R-280 Highway, where if the Ukranians strike their trucks with drones, there are no secondary roads, routes available. If you try to go to Crimea via the Kerch Bridge, its that way in or nothing,...... or rather you admit defeat and make the long trek up to the "Land Bridge" anyway, and then use the minor roads as you cant use the main Highway...... Err if you have enough fuel, for all this, keeping in mind you cant refill once there.....

[Mick Harper]

For some reason the Ukrainians are striving might and main to shut off all the entrances into Crimea. I'm a bit baffled by this. Crimea has been a strategic backwater since the departure of the Black Sea fleet. Russian air and radar assets there have been pretty much neutralised but in any case starving the operators to death doesn't seem very realistic.

I find it hard to believe the Ukrainians are going to attack Crimea with land forces. They'll either have to give it back at the peace or it will be given back to them for free.

One thing I'd like to hear though is how the Russians are persuading lorry drivers to keep at it. 'Put yer 'ead out the window for a shufti, Vasiliy, I thought I heard something.' I wouldn't do it even for double-bubble and a day off in lieu.