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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Ukraine is destroying the Putin Legend, much as the Red Army destroyed the Hitler Legend.
The idea that Ukraine (or anyone else) needs to make concessions or back down, or Putin will inevitably continue to advance, until victory is acheived is now being questioned.
Russia might be bigger. stronger, have a desrved reputation for brutality and victory and so on, but Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience, and now has......a chokehold.
A ceasefire would now be good for Russia.
A peace treaty will be a defeat but still save Vladdy. Next contest Armenia.
The high risk gamble is to see if Russia can break the chokehold and make people beleive the legend again.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Ukraine is destroying the Putin Legend, much as the Red Army destroyed the Hitler Legend. |
OK
| The idea that Ukraine (or anyone else) needs to make concessions or back down, or Putin will inevitably continue to advance, until victory is acheived is now being questioned. |
OK.
| Russia might be bigger. stronger, have a desrved reputation for brutality and victory and so on, but Ukraine has shown remarkable resilience, and now has......a chokehold. A ceasefire would now be good for Russia. |
OK (though not necessarily good for Putin).
| A peace treaty will be a defeat but still save Vladdy. Next contest Armenia. |
The hair of the dog, you mean.
| The high risk gamble is to see if Russia can break the chokehold and make people beleive the legend again. |
No gamble there. People will always believe in the Great Bear. After all, they still believe it despite Peter beating the Wolf with laughable ease.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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1 year ago Ukraine launched the spectacular Operation Spiderweb. Drones destroying multiple expensive sophisticated Russian aircraft parked on Russian tarmac. Russian commentators were outraged.
Today, the situation for Russia is much worse, its not newsworthy, its just basic mathes, Russian Milatary bloggers are reporting that their Ivans are now heavily outnumbered by Ukrainian drones.
Ukrane was aiming to produce over 4 to 5 million First-Person View (FPV) drones, with another 10 million unmanned systems, this year. Rybar reporting their guys are seeing 20/30/70 drones for each Ivan in some areas. Of course lots of these will be surveillance, supplying Ukranian logistics etc.
Might be overexaggeration....Still......Stop thinking of spectaculars, etc
Ukraine Question for the day....pause......Are Russians now actually outnumbered?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Might be overexaggeration.... |
I worry about the same thing. The reports we get are so overwhelming (and each on its own, reliable) one is surprised Russia's got anything left.
| Ukraine Question for the day....pause......Are Russians now actually outnumbered? |
I once asked this very question... pause... in late 1942. The Russians had lost so many people, so much territory and such a vast amount of industrial infrastructure by that time, it was by every metric 'outnumbered' by Germany. A lot of good this did Germany.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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There is something of a mystery going on in the Ukraine war. It is well known the Russians are in deep do-do with their strategic jewel in the crown, the Crimean peninsula. It's running out of both oil and military wherewithal.
There are three ways the Russians can resupply their Crimean forces:
1. The road along the north of the Sea of Azov from Russia, through the occupied parts of eastern Ukraine and across the isthmus to Crimea.
2. Ferrying stuff direct from Russian ports to Crimean ports.
3. The direct route across the Kerch bridge.
The first one is suffering very badly because Ukrainian drones can now take out pretty much anything venturing along the so-called Highway of Death. All the boats servicing the second route have been sunk by Ukrainian drones.
| But they're not using the Kerch bridge. |
Nobody knows why. It may be the Russians fear a repeat of the bombing of the oil train a coupla years back that put the bridge out of commission for weeks. But that hardly seems to account for it. Like I say, it's a mystery. Wiley will know.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Why change what they are doing?
For Russia its a case of (err) we have only lost 270 trucks (Ivans) so far since May, that is still a small percentage of those using those roads, through the occupied parts of eastern Ukraine and across the isthmus to Crimea.
Its going relatively pretty well and certainly less risky than a trip to the Front.
We could categorise it as say (I guess) 1% or 2 % chance of being struck by drone for what is very good money for drivers willing to take that risk.
You dont change something for loss of 270 trucks, thery have plenty more of these as well as plenty of drivers......
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I haven't heard any statistics that contradict you so I have been misled by Ukrainian ra-ra-ism. Though they ought to be able to functionally close the road (it seems to me). This is going to be the schwerpunkt in future wars.
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