War on Terrorism (Politics)

[Wile E. Coyote]

One problem is, the conflict has now laterally escalated, from one strait to two.

I dont see Trump agreeing any deal that is not a clear win.

Trumps Legacy, both in his own mind and those of his loyal supporters' is based on Trumps incredible deal making, These are deals in which he normally wins, all in his bid to Make America Great Again.


The problem is that the war is too big, too expensive, and working out too badly, not to be part of Trumps legacy.

He cant walk away.

He must turn this around and secure a deal, that looks to be a good deal to his supporters, as these formerly loyal supportters are now finally turning against him......

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]

Might I point out to the President of the Board of Jewish Deputies that the Heaton Park killings were not anti-Semitic, they were anti-Israeli, organised by the Iranian intelligence services.

I thought I'd mention it because of his continuing outrage at Diane Abbott for once referring to the Israeli Defence Forces as the Jewish Defence Forces.

[Mick Harper]

Trump has agreed to do what I have been urging him to do: not to retaliate and see what Iran does next. It is always important to give your opponent a choice and automatic tit-for-tat is not a choice.

The last time he tried it, the policy failed. Iran decided to attack some innocent ships not in its own waters and found itself at the wrong end of both American bombing and a chorus of disapproval from everyone else. We shall see if it has the... er... guts to do it all over again.

But Trump has not done what I told him to do when doing nothing: he has done something. He has attached all kinds of conditions that mean Iran will have to, however reluctantly, gird up its loins once more.

Ol' Looney Tune just can't get it into his head that he wins by everyone tiptoeing away.

[Mick Harper]

Some nice shifty manoeuvrings on the part of Iran have been taking place since Trump threw down the gauntlet by... er... not throwing down the gauntlet.

Iran is trying to 'persuade' the Arab Gulf countries to accept some kind of Iranian suzerainty over the Strait of Hormuz. If they manage to do this Iran could argue, with some chance of success, that this would convert the Strait from being a de jure international waterway into being a de facto inland sea of the Gulf riparian states.

To stand any chance, it requires Oman being a kind of co-signatory to Iran's designs, which they are clearly reluctant to do. The negotiations currently being conducted between the two countries have at least resulted in a reported agreement that Iran might be tasked with 'organising the safe passage of traffic through the Strait' in return for a voluntary payment by ships of 'a fee' to pay Iran's expenses.

This would not drive a coach and horses through International Law but it will be a tough sell. The real drawback is that Iran won't wear it because it's a million miles short of 'two million per ship' and 'we reserve the right to refuse passage to warmongering states'.

But they figure nobody will have the heart to stop them when the time comes. And there is a small but real possibility, given all that has happened, that would be the case.

[Mick Harper]

It takes a lot to shock me when it comes to the world's attitude to the Israeli/ Palestine struggle but yesterday my mouth was unusually agape.

The day before I had been both surprised and encouraged to hear that Trump's Board of Peace had finally got its act together and had issued a detailed plan, agreed by both Israel and Hamas, to get the Gaza situation sorted. Or at any rate greatly ameliorated.

So what has caused me to slump back into surly inveterate pessimism? The Board of Peace had visited Prime Minister Netanyahu and had issued an amended plan, one that is totally unacceptable to any Palestinian, Hamas or otherwise.

I understand we're not supposed to notice these things, or anyway not get too upset about their inevitability, but they might at least make a teensy effort to be subtle about it.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

I dont know whether the Houthis are charging tolls/ fees on the sly or not, there are certainly some folks arguing that they do.

What we can be sure about is that sanctioned groups, like the Houthis will not use established financial networks, so its difficult to tell.

Likewise dark (sanctioned) fleet tankers are not always using established networks.

Likewise the Chinese “teapot refineries” ie the smaller privately-owned independent oil refineries, primarily located in Shandong Province that account for roughly a quarter of China’s total refining capacity, will buy heavily discounted crude oil from nations like Iran and Russia, by the use of complex front companies and then this crude is transported by the shadow dark fleet (see above) to avoid international sanctions.

All these groups are known to use cash, hawala ( an old informal way to send money using trust and local brokers) and crypto to avoid regulation and sanctions.

A UN report was written to that effect, that the Houthis were likely charging tolls, but it was then withdrawn..

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

Its “Hawala” in the Middle East and Africa, "Hundi" in South Asia, "Fei Ch'ein" in China (Flying Money)....

These trust systems operate outside the conventional banking system without state authorisation or supervision. No records, account data or bank accounts.

[Mick Harper]

The US/Iran war is trembling on the brink of peace! Both sides have carefully crafted golden bridges for the other to withdraw. All that is now required is for

1. The IRGC not to start bombing people or ships for minor or historical infractions of what they deem to be right and proper
2. The Iranians not getting too upfront about charging ships steepling sums for not very obvious services rendered
3. The Iranians opening the Strait forthwith, not waiting for their laundry list of demands to be addressed before doing so (and ensuring the Houthis open theirs too)
4. The Americans turning a blind eye to ships paying off the Iranians under whatever pretext
5. The Americans lifting their blockade of Iranian ships immediately upon the Iranians opening the Strait -- no prevarications about this or that
6. The Americans not wheeling out the big guns just because Trump is offended by something of no great import the Iranians have done or said
7. The rest of the world piping down about the long term and getting things up and running as best they are able
8. Everyone reflecting that, once things are nearly back to normal, neither side is likely to start a new war because it is only nearly back to normal
9. Because I can assure one and all that it will be completely back to normal in fairly short order
10 Phew. Got to ten.