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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Labour MP Quiz
| If you had to choose between Angela Rayner, Wes Streeting and Ed Miliband, would you send for Andy Burnham? |
He can have my seat.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Its early days for the US blockade, but .....China appears to have finally made a move by its decision to conclude future oil contracts based on the Yuan with all Persian Gulf countries. If India follows suit, then we are looking at the end of the dollarisation monopoly that the US holds over shipping contracts and oil.
It has been a long term objective of China to increase the global power of the Yuan, and turn its currency firstly into a more international currency, then "the International Currency."
Persian Gulf oil-exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain have the opprtunity of now accepting the Yuan, and moving closer to China, or sticking with the US.
Who is more likely to bring peace and stability long term to the Gulf? If the Gulf states think its China, it is not good news for the US.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Its early days for the US blockade, but .....China appears to have finally made a move by its decision to conclude future oil contracts based on the Yuan with all Persian Gulf countries. |
That's a two-way street. Iran might agree, Iraq might agree, but everyone else...?
| If India follows suit, then we are looking at the end of the dollarisation monopoly that the US holds over shipping contracts and oil. |
India never punches its weight. But, I suppose, there's the small matter of whether it would be a good thing. If it resulted in a competitive mutually-exclusive duopoly, probably not. It won't be Bretton Woods vs COMECON but not far off. If it led to a free-for-all, probably yes (on first principles). Russia is reputedly using cryptocurrency and the dark web which, cleaned up, might be the best of all.
| It has been a long term objective of China to increase the global power of the Yuan, and turn its currency firstly into a more international currency, then "the International Currency." |
I'm not sure how far you can do this deliberately. Consider how the dollar replaced the pound sterling. People voted with their wallets, nobody made them do it. (Unless we discover that's not how it was done.)
| Persian Gulf oil-exporting countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, and Bahrain have the opprtunity of now accepting the Yuan, and moving closer to China, or sticking with the US. |
You mean moving closer to Iran and China. I have my doubts. We have got so used to BRICSworld being on the up and up we are in danger of forgetting that, right now, it's the West that's winning most of the tussles.
| Who is more likely to bring peace and stability long term to the Gulf? If the Gulf states think its China, it is not good news for the US. |
On the other hand, better the devil you know. They've had a pretty good run so far. This little farrago will be forgotten by next year.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| "Don't rush me. I've got all the time in the world." President Trump on the current Iranian situation |
This is true because Iran finds itself in a position where it does not have all the time in the world, but its opponent does. Their coffers are running out while America doesn't need the Hormuz Strait to be open at all.
| The world may be suffering but America isn't (much). |
This has not stopped the American MSM urging Trump to agree with the Iranians to lift both blockades in order to get the peace talks re-started. But since he will find there is no point in peace talks unless Iran is suffering, we must hope he listens to himself and not others.
I am not immune to the world suffering, only that I calculate the Iranians will give in reasonably promptly and the world won't be suffering quite as much as it is saying presently. My calculation is that it is worth a reasonable amount of pain to put Iran (and America) back in the box.
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Grant
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Iran has an obvious solution: agree to stop developing nuclear bombs in return for an end to all sanctions.
Trump can present this as a great win. Iran will make a fortune in trade. Both win.
In fact, they will make so much money they'll be able to buy a nuclear bomb from North Korea, but they probably won't bother. Their drones and missiles have already terrified the Middle East almost as much as an A bomb would.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Grant wrote: | | Iran has an obvious solution: agree to stop developing nuclear bombs in return for an end to all sanctions. |
You are assuming Iran is a normal state, not a theocracy. Apart from the difficulty of demonstrating how you have stopped doing something you haven't started doing for twenty years. And Trump, once his ascendancy is established, being content with this relatively minimal gain.
| Trump can present this as a great win. |
Will the world agree with you? They're not daft. No, wait, you may be right.
| Iran will make a fortune in trade. |
How? It has been declining on the World Poverty Index ever since the Shah's days (in the top half) until now (in the bottom half).
Or both lose. It's a fine judgement.
| In fact, they will make so much money they'll be able to buy a nuclear bomb from North Korea |
Then they'll be in the right place. We still don't know where Pakistan bought its bomb.
| but they probably won't bother. Their drones and missiles have already terrified the Middle East almost as much as an A bomb would. |
There might be some leverage in that but if I was advising them I'd stick to using proxies to fire them off. As the Anglo-Americans always say, 'If you're going to fight a war, don't do it on your own doorstep.'
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | "Don't rush me. I've got all the time in the world." President Trump on the current Iranian situation |
This is true because Iran finds itself in a position where it does not have all the time in the world, but its opponent does. Their coffers are running out while America doesn't need the Hormuz Strait to be open at all.
| The world may be suffering but America isn't (much). |
This has not stopped the American MSM urging Trump to agree with the Iranians to lift both blockades in order to get the peace talks re-started. But since he will find there is no point in peace talks unless Iran is suffering, we must hope he listens to himself and not others.
I am not immune to the world suffering, only that I calculate the Iranians will give in reasonably promptly and the world won't be suffering quite as much as it is saying presently. My calculation is that it is worth a reasonable amount of pain to put Iran (and America) back in the box. |
Dont know. I really dont see that the US can keep in place this blockade for long, its not a close blockade, they are too worried to approach the Strait (for now) so they have to cover a huge area, with two aircraft carriers and 17 detroyers, that sounds alot, but much of it is providing their own defence, and readying for future bombing raids if needed. Wiley really doubts that they can logistically keep an amarda this size going to endlessly kettle back shipping from Iranian ports, they are also still keeping some of their fleet around Venezuela.
So far it appears sucessful, but I would be surprised if they can keep it going.
According to Trump the Iranians will soon capitulate as they have run out of space to store pumped oil, and they need to keep pumping not to damage the wells. Iran is now using old carriers to store the pumped oil. DT says they will be out of space and the pipelines expolode on the 29th April.
I have been let down by the voice of God on a couple of occasions....
Wiley sees either the surrender/annihilation/economic collapse and break up of Iran, or more likley a US withdrawl for good from the Gulf, its already lost the bases, and geography, commerce, and new ways of warfare all favour an asian solution under the influence of China/Pakistan/India and Iran. I wouldnt be surprised to see tolls as now part of the solution, (why not?) whether formal, or informal ie dark fleet, payment in Yuan, for safe passage of the Strait.
Either way there is little point in rebuilding the failed architecture that has led to all of this...even if Europe and the Gulf states want to try, to go back....we all know they share a common trait these guys will always back down.......
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Dont know. I really dont see that the US can keep in place this blockade for long, its not a close blockade, they are too worried to approach the Strait (for now) so they have to cover a huge area, with two aircraft carriers and 17 detroyers, that sounds alot, |
This is incorrect. There won't be many of them but they will all be large, lumbering merchant ships issuing from approximately Point A and heading in one general direction. Even if they are being deliberately deceptive they will show up on satellite-view. I reckon one energetic Arleigh Burke-class destroyer could do the job.
By the way, something hardly anyone ever mentions is that the US blockade will stop Iran importing anything. That in some ways is even worse.
| but much of it is providing their own defence, and readying for future bombing raids if needed. |
All the more reason to use one Arleigh Burke.
| Wiley really doubts that they can logistically keep an amarda this size going to endlessly kettle back shipping from Iranian ports, they are also still keeping some of their fleet around Venezuela. |
What do you think navies do? Most of the time they haven't got anything to do. But keeping some ships bottled up plus stooging round Venezuela strikes me as well within the capabilities of the world's biggest navy.
| So far it appears sucessful, but I would be surprised if they can keep it going. |
Since it is far and away the most important operation going on at present, I'll be surprised if they can't.
| According to Trump the Iranians will soon capitulate as they have run out of space to store pumped oil, and they need to keep pumping not to damage the wells. Iran is now using old carriers to store the pumped oil. DT says they will be out of space and the pipelines expolode on the 29th April. |
That would be true of any country's oil infrastructure. It is designed for 'through-put'. Since hardly anything has got out since the war started, I'm surprised Iran's oil hasn't started backing up long before April 29th.
| I have been let down by the voice of God on a couple of occasions... |
This is one of them.
| Wiley sees either the surrender/annihilation/economic collapse and break up of Iran, or more likley a US withdrawl for good from the Gulf, its already lost the bases, and geography, commerce, and new ways of warfare all favour an asian solution under the influence of China/Pakistan/India and Iran. I wouldnt be surprised to see tolls as now part of the solution, (why not?) whether formal, or informal ie dark fleet, payment in Yuan, for safe passage of the Strait. |
Phew! God told you all that? He's pulling your leg, everything will be back to the status quo ante before He knows it.
| Either way there is little point in rebuilding the failed architecture that has led to all of this...even if Europe and the Gulf states want to try, to go back....we all know they share a common trait these guys will always back down....... |
The beauty of Trump's scheme is that it doesn't involve anyone doing anything. Apart from the bloke with the tannoy on the Arleigh Burke.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Is everyone on the same tenterhooks as me? Well clear off and find some of your own. No, seriously, the Iranian situation is muddling inch by inch towards a resolution. It looks as though the Iranians know the jig is up. The question now is whether the Americans, who are not the world's most deft negotiators, will
(a) recognise the Iranian negotiators are signalling the jig is up
(b) provide them with a golden bridge so they can assure the Iranian people the jig is firmly in place for the future
(c) without thinking they have to persuade everyone else it isn't.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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As we await Morgan McSweeney's appearance at the Foreign Affairs Select Committee to wrap things up, we can safely say Keir Starmer did, as they say, 'nothing wrong' re the Mandelson appointment. By which is meant legally, ethically or procedurally.
One political thing he did wrong was to peremptorily sack Olly Robbins, who not only did nothing wrong, he was puppy-doggishly doing everything right! But we have still not come to grips with the big one which turns out to be not 'Why did Starmer appoint Mandelson?', the question everybody's been asking. But
| 'Why did it ever occur to Starmer a new ambassador was needed in the first place?' |
The mandarin given a grilling this morning was pretty eloquent that the Trump transition team was a bit take aback by Mandie suddenly being bounced on them. He also made it clear that Dame Mandarin, the ambassador at the time, was getting on famously with the Trump transition team. In other words
| It was Starmer who was bounced into appointing Mandelson. |
Presumably by McSweeney. So now Starmer has a choice between (1) defending himself for doing something quite properly but that he ought to have known would turn out disastrously or (2) admitting he is a glove puppet being manipulated by a twat in his back office.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Today is the day that Team Trump says the oil pipelines in Iran will explode causing irreprable damage. We are going to witness the equivalent of the 1991 Kuwait oil fires, (ordered by Saddam) but across Iran. Irans oil producing and selling capacity, will be devastated.
This is the main point of the Naval Blockade, ordered by Trump. Iran cannot stop the pressue flow of its oil, from its wells, by continuing to load the oil onto empty tankers' as it normally would. The presure mounts. The tension mounts.
Iran has so far responded by storing the oil on old empty tankers, but thse have nowhere to sail to, so cant unload. Yikes the Iranian storage is running out.
But when? Today we find out if Team Trump is right.
Kerboom!
The Iranians will be forced back to the negotiating table, to in effect surrender..........as more explosions occur.
Or just maybe nothing happens.......
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Today is the day that Team Trump says the oil pipelines in Iran will explode causing irreprable damage. We are going to witness the equivalent of the 1991 Kuwait oil fires, (ordered by Saddam) but across Iran. Irans oil producing and selling capacity, will be devastated. |
Aren't you forgetting Saddam was playing for keeps? The IRGC know they're staying in power whatever happens.
| This is the main point of the Naval Blockade, ordered by Trump. Iran cannot stop the pressue flow of its oil, from its wells, by continuing to load the oil onto empty tankers' as it normally would. The presure mounts. The tension mounts. |
I hardly think the War Room brains trust is capable of this degree of sophistication.
| Iran has so far responded by storing the oil on old empty tankers, but thse have nowhere to sail to, so cant unload. Yikes the Iranian storage is running out. But when? Today we find out if Team Trump is right. Kerboom! |
Or they'll stop pumping like they do every other year for the big maintenance check.
| The Iranians will be forced back to the negotiating table, to in effect surrender..........as more explosions occur. Or just maybe nothing happens....... |
Something has already happened. According to Al-Jazeera, not enough foreign currency is coming in to pay the rank and file of the IRGC.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I was desperately disappointed by McSweeney's hour at the wrong end of Emily Thornberry's gavel. I thought he was just going to stonewall but he ended up disposing of all the various conspiracy theories about him, Starmer, Mandelson and Epstein. Sob.
Unless Emily Thornberry is part of it. That can't be her real name just for starters.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I am conflicted by the outburst of anti-Semitic acts in Britain. At first they were clearly designed to put the willies up the Jewish community without causing any actual physical harm. 'They' (I assume it was an organised group) did this via minor acts of defacement and sabotage at synagogues.
Although, as I understand the law, I am not allowed to express approval of this (and don't), my twin brother who lives outside British jurisdiction shrugged. "If organised British Jewry is going to be so stunningly schtum about Israeli atrocities, Mick, they can't complain about the odd chicken coming home to roost."
Yesterday it was a nutter running amok in Golders Green with a knife. It is true random stabbings in that neck of the woods is likely to score you a Jew more often than in any other part of Britain, we both condemn this on a variety of grounds.
However, since it was a nutter, there is absolutely nothing anyone can do about this kind of attack. That really would put the willies up me.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Having watched Newsnight, I can however point out some AE aspects of the above.
First there is a blatant and widespread use of the 'bogus list'. Speaker after speaker conflated two things: the 'direct action' of the synagogue attacks and the nutter. They did this in order to produce statements like 'People dismissed the initial acts as being political protest, they can't any longer' and 'Make no mistake, this is an attack on British values.'
The nutter has not changed the synagogue attacks as being other than political protest, and there is no evidence (yet) that they caused the nutter's atack. Neither on their own or conflated do they reflect on British values. The reaction to them though has, and not necessarily in a good way.
While the two can be listed as 'anti-Semitic acts that have taken place in Britain recently', there have been no others. Two never makes a list. But nor can they be listed in terms of 'type'. They could scarcely be more different.
All of which leads to faulty demands for a change in official policy. It is agreed on all sides the police have been prompt in stepping up security when it comes to identifiably Jewish people and places. There is nothing official policy can do about lone nutters doing lonesome things. AE would say:
| Given the evidence so far, and the actions already in place, it would be correct to do nothing. |
And finally to 'careful ignoral'. Nobody mentioned the root cause of all these anti-Semitic acts. Israeli foreign policy.
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