War on Terrorism (Politics)

[Mick Harper]

Russia and Iran have been the big losers in the Syrian volte face but, to a degree, Israel as well. The difference is that Russia and Iran are already on the rivet, they have to constantly rob Peter to pay Paul. The difference between Russia and Iran is that Russia is always that way.

The difference between Israel and the other two is that she is in that rare position of the upward-bound hegemon for whom every turn of the wheel, for or against, presents new opportunities. (China is in that position too.)

America was the opposite, the hegemon on the way out for whom everything, for or against, presented a crisis ratcheting things down. Except Trump has changed that. Whether his policy of refusing to recognise reality is a temporary halt or a stroke of genius will only be known by our children's children.

[Mick Harper]

Chutzpah News

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

Which country, or movement, or organisation in that area, has better people or better leaders in charge than Israel?

OK they might be total bastards, but they once again seem effective at it.

It's not a safe space........so stopping horrible things happening again after the humiliation of Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, is what was needed.

They have taken out the leadership of Hamas, Hezbollah and are now going after Iran.

Respect is what they are after, rather than friendship.

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]

Everyone keeps referring to the Israel/Iran War, but is it? It has more the nature of a police action. A colonial power sending a column of pith helmets 'upcountry' to confiscate assegais and hang a few tribal leaders to send a message not to do it again.

Could work. The Iranians are not what you would call 'a proud people', are they? They are well behind China in being the second longest independent state in the history of humanity.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Well up to Operation Al-Aqsa Flood, Wiley would say things were going remarkably well for Iran, they might be bastards (from a humanitarian viewpoint) but they were well respected Persian chess-playing strategic bastards. They had in effect developed the land bridge to the Mediterranean by their actions in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, their axis of resistance comprising Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and parts of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq, was undeniably very effective, both in terms of resistance and in the pursuit of Iranian ends.

I guess they thought that destabilising Israel was the next logical step.

It still wasn't going that badly until the Hezbollah pager attacks, and the fall of Assad.

Now its axis of resistance/front line of defence appears in ruins. They are no longer doing the destabalising. They are all going backwards (except the Houthis), they are now the ones confronting the existential threat.

Not good.

[Mick Harper]

So President Trump decided not to extend his two week ultimatum past two days. He's not a man blessed with patience. I just hope Diego Garcia wasn't used by the B-2 grim reapers because the Islamic states of the world are meeting right now in Istanbul and they are saying to one another

[Ishmael]

[Mick Harper]

At least the offer was explicit. The 'sixty days' was clearly an afterthought when someone noticed Trump had mentioned 'a couple of months' and the Israelis started bombing sixty-one days later. Nobody, least of all the Iranians, were aware the clock was counting down.

But this is all pretty monumental stuff. Remember, the USA has just bombed the bejesus out of a country that has not done anything wrong in terms of international law. The USA itself had signed up to Iran's right to enrich uranium. Nor had Iran done anything (lately) to the USA. Only Israel had the dubious right to take out the Iranian nuclear industry on the grounds of 'its existential existence'.

If Trump had decided that, as World Policeman, the USA had the right--even the duty--to eliminate the Iranian nuclear industry, he might have given them the chance to do it of their own accord. True, they wouldn't have done so but it was catastrophic to do it with a surprise attack as though it was Bin Laden or Saddam Hussein they'd just found hiding in a hole.

For Chrissake, the Iranians have been down that hole, in plain sight, enriching uranium since 2003. He couldn't wait two weeks?

[Wile E. Coyote]

I don't beleve in any of these Trump deadlines anymore.

Nevertheless, the spokeslady did say "within two weeks" and it actually was....was this the one time he did what he said?

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

The Iranians have absolutely no interest in civilian nuclear power. The Russians built them a small nuke power station, I assume because it was a badge of modernity. They have a small interest in enriching uranium because they've got some uranium mines and an even smaller need for medical isotopes and what not. But it's all a total waste of money for a country in Iran's state of development. Much better to look in Exchange & Mart.

However they discovered, as many do, that you can endlessly tweak the nose of the world community by 'going for a bomb'. You might even end up with one, you never can tell.

There is no safety reason for building things under three hundred feet of rock unless you misstep and the world community takes you seriously. And very effective it is too. I predict the Americans won't have harmed a hair on a single centrifuge's head.

[Mick Harper]

The world waits. The Iranians have carefully signalled--by telling the Americans where they were going to fire their 'retaliatory' missiles and by using the exact number of missiles that the Americans used bombs-- that they are prepared to call it a day.

This leaves the ball in (a) the American and (b) the Israeli court. If the Big Two (I'm including the USA) agree, then peace and quiet reigns. If one or other of them doesn't, then we're in for exciting times. Do you get the impression the Israelis (for one) are in favour of quiet times?

[Wile E. Coyote]

According to Bibi all the objectives of Rising Lion have been achieved and there is ceasefire.

If it holds we can expect to see all sides declare victory followed by a massive crackdown on the enemy within.