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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Wiley thinks that Bibi is after regime change in Tehran. This is a long planned operation.
The question is will Trump support him in this.
Putin has been on the phone saying that he believes they (ie those two great peacemakers Putin and Trump) should end it peacefully. Russia needs Iran. Trump likes Putin and would like a Nobel Peace Prize.
Bibi, having started this war, is not going to end it unless the US tells him to.
Trump has to be decisive. He is not. He tends to go with the last advice given, or so it seems.
There are a lot of US military folks who will see this as the golden opportunity for regime change in Iran. Iran has no air defence left so Israel can hit them at will, that is as long as they have supplies of US missiles. Masses of folks are leaving Tehran having rightly figured out that this is the case, ie they are at risk, their government cannot protect them. Iranians are used to having an aggressive foreign policy where the destabalisation takes place in other countries, it's now heading their way. Not good. 50 % of population is not Persian, some of these are armed.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had previously issued a fatwa on Trump after Trump authorised the killing of Maj Gen Qassem Suleimani. Trump has mentioned this fatwa on a number of occasions.
So frustrations with Bibi have to be weighed against the fatwa.
Err, I don't know. Does he?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley thinks that Bibi is after regime change in Tehran. This is a long planned operation. |
Mick thinks Bibi rather likes having permanent loonies on tap.
| The question is will Trump support him in this. |
The answer is that Trump's support is immaterial (if it is not unquestioning).
| Putin has been on the phone saying that he believes they (ie those two great peacemakers Putin and Trump) should end it peacefully. Russia needs Iran. |
Putin telling Trump what he truly believes? Wonders will never cease.
| Trump likes Putin and would like a Nobel Peace Prize. |
Think Kissinger and Le Duc Tho.
| Bibi, having started this war, is not going to end it unless the US tells him to. |
Bibi, having started this war, is not going to end it unless Bibi decides to.
| Trump has to be decisive. He is not. He tends to go with the last advice given, or so it seems. |
Quite so.
| There are a lot of US military folks who will see this as the golden opportunity for regime change in Iran. |
In that case Bibi has already blown that prospect.
| Iran has no air defence left so Israel can hit them at will, that is as long as they have supplies of US missiles. |
a.k.a. Kingdom come.
| Masses of folks are leaving Tehran having rightly figured out that this the case, ie they are at risk, their government cannot protect them. |
From what? Twenty-seven individuals (o.n.o.) out of ten million have died so far, and they were all high-ranking nuclear people and their families. "Daddy, daddy, are we high ranking nuclear people?" "No, precious, we're greengrocers."
| Iranians are used to having an aggressive foreign policy where the destabalisation takes place in other countries, it's now heading their way. Not good. 50 % of population is not Persian, some of these are armed. |
Well, yes, you do have a (small) point there.
| Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had previously issued a fatwa on Trump after Trump authorised the killing of Maj Gen Qassem Suleimani. Trump has mentioned this fatwa on a number of occasions. |
How they all depend on one another.
| So frustrations with Bibi have to be weighed against the fatwa. Err, I don't know. Does he? |
I don't think President Trump goes in for weighing things up very much. He's a very instinctive sort of person.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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It appears that a warning has been issued.
“Dear citizens, for your safety, we ask you to immediately leave the mentioned area in District 3 of Tehran,”
“In the coming hours, the Israeli army will operate in this area, as it has in recent days throughout Tehran, to strike the Iranian regime’s military infrastructure,” |
District 3 is the posh part, about a quarter of million people, most of whom will not want to become martyrs.
Israel will demonstrate that faith in the regime will not defend against air attacks.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| most of whom will not want to become martyrs. |
So not Shia Muslims, then.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Israel now has total control of the air space over Tehran, which is the centre of Iranian state power. Israel can now take out all the key military and other state buildings within the capital, the TV station and so on.
It is an existential threat to Iran.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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State Broadcasting building has been blown up.
Iran's best hope is a Trump 30 day ceasefire that might give them the time to actually get some air defences in, to help defend the capital.
What would Clausewitz make of all this?
Iran hasn't defended its capital.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Tehran isn't the capital as far as the ayatollahs are concerned. More a cesspit that could do with a bit of satanic urban reconstruction. The holy city of Qom is where they're at. President Trump has apparently told Prime Minister Netanyahu that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei is off-limits.
"We don't want chief execs being in the firing line, do we, Bibi?"
"Okey dokey, pig in a pokey. Khamsie?"
"I third that."
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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After Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union had partitioned Poland in 1939, the Jews were forced into ghettos. The Red Cross started complaining the Jews weren't being given access to the food the Geneva Protocols said 'occupying powers' had to provide.
So the SS and the NKVD set up a faux humanitarian agency which left a bit of food outside each ghetto and then took potshots as Jews were forced to come out and get it. It was great fun--the Jews were due to leave Gaza anyway for an undisclosed location--but the world community wasn't happy about it and voted to condemn the practice at the League of Nations.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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President Trump is very free with his advice about what other people should do. His latest advice is that the people of Tehran should immediately evacuate the city. Since the Israelis are bombing all parts of their country, I would have thought his advice ought to be that the people of Iran should immediately evacuate Iran.
They could then join the Gazans who are similarly on the lookout for somewhere new to call home on Mr Trump's advice.
I ought to caution the President that being bombed isn't always the gravest danger facing inhabitants of capital cities. During the Second World War Londoners were being killed in road accidents caused by the blackout more than they were falling victim to the Luftwaffe.
Only a few dozen Tehranis have so far been killed by the Israelis. Rather fewer, by my calculations, than the actuarial results to be expected from millions of cars, packed with family members and their belongings, being driven out of the city in headlong dashes before being marooned in vast traffic jams just outside.
Though all bets are off if the Israelis are ever allowed to develop nuclear weapons. One shudders.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The problem is that in a matter of days they have lost control of their capital. Presumably they had wargamed for a long protracted fight in the event of their forever war agaist the US and Israel arriving at their own gates.
Their centre of gravity has now gone.
There is now lots of helpful, and unhelpful, advice out there but when you have been hit clean on the chin, you are stumbling around, you can't carry it out whether it's good or bad.
They just got to hope that they make it to the end of the first round.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| The problem is that in a matter of days they have lost control of their capital. |
What does this even me? The British lost control of the airspace over their capital for long periods in WW2 and it didn't seem to matter much. You might as well say the Israelis have lost control of Tel Aviv since they, like the Iranians, are getting incoming from time to time. You lose control of your capital in only two ways
1. The enemy are marching up Broadway
2. It gets nuked.
| Presumably they had wargamed for a long protracted fight in the event of their forever war against the US and Israel arriving at their own gates. |
How could they since both these opponents are nuclear-armed? But assuming they were assuming no-nukes then they knew what they had and they knew what the Israelis had. So they knew they'd arrive eventually where they have arrived. It's come earlier than they thought, people are always absurdly optimistic when warplanning (there's a chapter about it in Unreliable). The Iranians may be daft but they're not stupid.
| Their centre of gravity has now gone. |
You're doing that weird thing again. Name one centre of gravity of one country. Either physically or metaphorically.
| There is now lots of helpful, and unhelpful, advice out there |
Is this irony?
| but when you have been hit clean on the chin, you are stumbling around, you can't carry it out whether it's good or bad. They just got to hope that they make it to the end of the first round. |
Let me tell you about countries at war. They either surrender on Day One or they go on until the enemy are marching up Broadway (and even then they might take to the hills). In between, their only recourse is to make it sufficiently clear to their assailant that it isn't worth carrying on the war and they make peace.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Center of gravity COG is a NATO military concept referring to the primary source of strength, balance, or stability necessary for a force to maintain combat operations. Lose your COG and you are in lots of trouble.
In Iran's case they have lost total control of air space above their capital, unlike Israel they cannot defend their capital. Israel has an airforce of 300 planes that can now attack at will. Iran has also lost its air force and many of its top commanders.
Have they balance, strength or stability to carry out effective combat operations?
I doubt it.
Can Iran resist if the Kurds and Balochs rebel?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Here's a nifty proposal from the Russians. They have long denied kidnapping Ukrainian children but have tacitly acknowledged it by offering them back to their weeping Ukrainian mums on a one-for-one exchange for battle-hardened Russian soldiers languishing in Ukrainian POW camps.
That will never work. Ukrainians are too fly to fall for such a blatant tug on the heartstrings. No, what the Russian should do is announce the kids will be executed in batches on a strict timetable. That will test Ukraine's moral dilemma appetite (MDA).
There was a large 'normal' prisoner exchange this week. I couldn't tell how much cherry-picking was going on but the Ukrainian prisoners had aged twenty years, the Russian ones looked like you did returning from Torremolinos' Club 18 to 30 that time.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Can Iran resist if the Kurds and Balochs rebel? |
Yes, but they've got a bigger minority to worry about. It's a little known fact (even I didn't know) that the only two majority-Shia countries in the world are Azerbaijan and Iran.
So are they best buddies in a hostile world? Of course not, they're Shias. It only takes one Shia before they're fighting each other to the death. But there are other reasons.
Like
* There are thirty million Azerbaijanis in Azerbaijan
* There are fifteen million Azerbaijanis in Iran
Like
* Azerbaijan provides most of Israel's oil and gas needs
* Israel provides seventy per cent of Azerbaijan's armament needs
Like
* If our new masters, USA and Israel, lop off the Azerbaijani bit of Iran and hand it to Azerbaijan they will have rewarded one old ally
* If Azerbaijani Iran is lopped off it will mean Kurdish Iran will have nowhere to go except to reward another old ally, the Kurds.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Wiley is starting to see a trend.
Who was the ally that didnt help as much as expected?
Armenia Azerbaijan, this ally was suppossed to provide the security guarentee for Armenia, quick victory for Azerbaijan.
Syrian Civil war, ally suppossed to be providing the regime air cover, quick Assad defeat.
Iran Israel (has provided the Iranian with their air defences and airforce). Result yet to be decided.
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