War on Terrorism (Politics)

[Wile E. Coyote]

It appears that so far the Iranians have only been able to scramble one Soviet Jet so far, and there is now no real air defence. I think their air force is gone, unless they hid the planes but not their generals.

Israel can now spend a couple of weeks on depleting the Iranian military, eg they are now eliminating Iranian ballistic missile launchers.

Wiley reckons the Iranians' best hope are their drones.

They really need to ask Vlad for these back sharpish.

[Mick Harper]

I am listening to Denys Davydov discussing these very issues. He's very gung-ho because the attack on Iran will dry up Russian-bound missile exports (while being immensely disapproving of the attack itself).

Up on my screen right now is that Iranian propaganda picture of blackclad missiles each one bearing the national flag and, in red capitals, 'THE NEGOTIATOR WHEN NECESSARY'. All flying through a crackling night sky presumptively towards one or other of the Satans. [If America is the Great Satan, and Britain is the Little Satan, where does that put Israel?]

It's a terrific piece of agitprop except the missiles the artist has used are V2's. Yes, that's right, the world's first ballistic missiles, designed by the great and the good (and not at all Nazi) Wernher von Braun. Still, you know where you are with 1940's technology. It's tried and tested.

[Ishmael]

[Mick Harper]

You're being tiresomely opaque again, Ishmael. You cannot object to the broad notion of monocultures using only one genetic variety will be savaged by a new pest at some stage. For example, after the Irish Potato Blight, the French wine industry was overwhelmed by grape phylloxera.

Unless you are, in which case you should explain why.

[Mick Harper]

It is an AE principle that 'moral arguments' are bogus, at least in the sense that 'moral' always stands for something else. But I will use it in Iran/Israel as meaning something like 'justified'. Because in international relations there is a considerable difference in attitudes depending on how 'justified' country A is when intervening in the affairs of country B.

So is Israel 'justified' in taking out the nascent Iranian nuke industry? Our understanding of the way nations behave--should behave?--does not include bombing the shit out of someone on the grounds they are doing something you don't want them to do. With one proviso.

If the something they are doing means they are very likely to bomb the shit out of you in the foreseeable future then you might well be justified. That is, roughly speaking, the attitude of at least pro-Israeli countries. It is, even to a strict AE-ist, an arguable case.

But that is not what Netanyahu says Israel is doing. They are bombing everything in sight to the point of, he says, regime change. That is definitely not--to this strict AE-ist anyway--justifiable on any grounds.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Bibi called for regime change (actually calling for Iranians to revolt), as he sees this as revenge for Iran supporting Hamas and Hezbollah. It's a case of if you try to topple us, we will topple you. An eye for an eye. Proportionate.

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

Israel had to protect its borders from Hezbollah?

'Look, Mordechai, over there. It's Hezbollah.'
'I can't see anything.'
'Behind that bush.'

[Wile E. Coyote]

Israel evacuated 60,000 people including 24,000 evacuated from Kiryat Shmona alone, to protect them from Hezbollah's rocket attacks. These attacks were launched on October 8th, ie the day after Hamas launched Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

The evacuation of border communities within Israel was on an unprecedented scale for an unprecedented peiod, ie over a year. This would have previously been considered as unthinkable showing a sign of weakness and emboldening Israel's enemies. Children might have been evacuated but not whole communities.

Israel believed that Hezbollah would/could open a second front, exploiting its tunnel network, in the period following Operation Al-Aqsa Flood.

[Mick Harper]

Behind those bushes.

[Wile E. Coyote]

The whole Iranian network from Tehran to the Mediterranean, built by Maj Gen Qassem Suleimani and Hassan Nasrallah, is now being sytematically destroyed. The weak link in the network was Iran's/ Hezbollah's tactical support of Assad.

Many Syrians and Lebanese (unlike western liberals) rejoiced when Israel killed Nasrallah, they won't cry if this is the end of the Ayatollahs.

[Mick Harper]

Which is the world's most sought after currency, forty per cent up since the start of the year? Correctomundo! The rouble. This has allowed Russia to slash Bank Rate from the crippling twenty-one per cent imposed in the dark days of sanctions to twenty per cent. They're dancing in the streets of Moscow tonite.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Yes, foregn currency traders are dancing. The Kremlin is keeping them happy with massive deficit spending to finance their forever war, along with super-high interest rates to keep their inflation down.

Expect some headlines now about how the higher price of oil and gas, caused by Israel's attack on Iran, is going to benefit the Russians.

[Mick Harper]

I watched a discussion about Trump's cleft stick. He wants the oil price to go down to help out with America's inflation rate but also wants Iranian oil exports to be hindered by Israeli bombing to hurry Iran along to the negotiating table. Which will mean oil prices going up.

I am satisfied, now the divine Gabriel Gatehouse agrees with me, that Trump did not know about, did not sanction and did not approve of the Israeli attack. He has, though, been very nimble exploiting it post facto. Given the president's mercurial but vengeful mind, it is entirely possible he will find it hard to forgive Netanyahu. And take action accordingly.

We know the result if that happened. Trump will be out on his ear.