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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Yes, internal Israeli strife is the Palestinians' last and best hope. Trouble is, every time you think the Israeli doves are calling the shots, the hawks start shooting and the doves have to fall in line.
It is instructive to listen to the Israeli talking-doves that Al-Jazeera regularly features--elderly academics, Haaretz columnists and what have you. In the old days (pre-October the Seventh) they could be relied on to denounce Netanyahu and all his works. Now they have a more wistful air. They know in their bones the die is cast and it's either Greater Israel and peace at last or legal Israel and war at any time.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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That internal Israeli strife is hard to measure directly, as it is predominantly published in Hebrew.
But reports published in Hebrew often provide a different window on Israeli internal discourse.
Here's some via Alastair Crooke
| Leading commentators warn of ‘fateful times’ in Israel — of a "regime with two authorities”; of a constitutional crisis and anarchy, with warnings of “deranged police violence”, and warnings of Israel having reached the point “at which the only solution is liable to be bloodshed” and “civil war”. |
| Opposition leaders have called for civil disobedience; anti-government protestors have warned they will shut down the economy, and have warned of a “huge wave of resistance among reserve soldiers” that is emerging. | |
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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Alastair Crooke is a person of interest.
| Crooke later worked for nearly 30 years in the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) under diplomatic cover in Northern Ireland, South Africa, Colombia, Pakistan and the Middle East. His early work included helping provide weapons to jihadists fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan and assisting in the Northern Ireland peace process. |
More on the Soviet connection later.
| In 1997, he became a security adviser to the EU special envoy to the Middle East, and operating out of the British Embassy in Tel Aviv was involved in British attempts to draw Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian groups into the political process. |
Not sure if "EU special envoy to the Middle East" means Tony Blair. Moving on...
| He was involved in negotiations to end the Israeli army's siege of Yasser Arafat's compound in Ramallah and the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. He assisted the negotiation of several local truces between the Israelis and Palestinians during the early 2000s. Crooke had good contacts with the Israeli military and intelligence services |
He may well have been a spook for decades, but for once here's one who doesn't seem to be one of the More War brigade.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Borry wrote: | | That internal Israeli strife is hard to measure directly, . |
Hard to measure? Israel is the most politically measured country in the known universe.
| as it is predominantly published in Hebrew. But reports published in Hebrew often provide a different window on Israeli internal discourse. |
I'm glad to hear we now have two Hebrew-speakers on the AEL.
Here's some via Alastair Crooke
Leading commentators warn of ‘fateful times’ in Israel — of a "regime with two authorities”; of a constitutional crisis and anarchy, with warnings of “deranged police violence”, and warnings of Israel having reached the point “at which the only solution is liable to be bloodshed” and “civil war”. |
Speaking for myself, I have been hearing this all my life.
| Opposition leaders have called for civil disobedience; anti-government protestors have warned they will shut down the economy, and have warned of a “huge wave of resistance among reserve soldiers” that is emerging. |
Yup... all my life.
Alastair Crooke is a person of interest.
Crooke later worked for nearly 30 years in the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) under diplomatic cover in Northern Ireland, South Africa, Colombia, Pakistan and the Middle East. His early work included helping provide weapons to jihadists fighting the Soviets in Afghanistan and assisting in the Northern Ireland peace process.
More on the Soviet connection later. |
As they used to say in Cambridge.
In 1997, he became a security adviser to the EU special envoy to the Middle East, and operating out of the British Embassy in Tel Aviv was involved in British attempts to draw Hamas, Islamic Jihad and other Palestinian groups into the political process.
Not sure if "EU special envoy to the Middle East" means Tony Blair. Moving on... |
Has he? I think we should be told if he has. PS For an alleged Great Power, the source of all the trouble and the ex-colonial master, Britain has been notably sotte voce about the whole imbroglio.
He was involved in negotiations to end the Israeli army's siege of Yasser Arafat's compound in Ramallah and the Church of the Nativity in Bethlehem. He assisted the negotiation of several local truces between the Israelis and Palestinians during the early 2000s. Crooke had good contacts with the Israeli military and intelligence services.
He may well have been a spook for decades, but for once here's one who doesn't seem to be one of the More War brigade. |
I'm not saying this is not all reasonably fascinating. It's just learning that someone isn't who we thought he was before learning who he was can be a mite confusing.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | Yes, internal Israeli strife is the Palestinians' last and best hope. Trouble is, every time you think the Israeli doves are calling the shots, the hawks start shooting and the doves have to fall in line.
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I disagree, the Palestinians' best hope is to surrender, they find themselves in the same position as the Germans did at the end of WW2, Gaza city is devastated, and they face an existential threat from an enemy hell-bent on their destruction (for Germany this was the Soviets.) They need to stop all this nonsense about Operation Flood being a victory, or that they are going to win long term by adopting the terrorist tactics of the Taliban. Or keep pretending that they are the chosen martyrdom people, or that they will manage to get a two state solution any time soon with the help of western protesters or the International Community, or UNRWA.
In short, their White Flag protests are now the best way forward, along with giving up their hostages and guns. It's going to be bad but hopefully they will be able to at least survive and start to rebuild.
They now need their Adenauer.
A good start would be for the Palestinians to say this should be addressed via the Abraham accords. This might hopefully get Trump on board.
It ain't going to happen, to surrender would take real courage and to admit a dreadful wrong that you have committed.
Much easier to carry on as before.......
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Yes, internal Israeli strife is the Palestinians' last and best hope. Trouble is, every time you think the Israeli doves are calling the shots, the hawks start shooting and the doves have to fall in line.
I disagree, the Palestinians' best hope is to surrender, they find themselves in the same position as the Germans did at the end of WW2, Gaza city is devastated, and they face an existential threat from an enemy hell-bent on their destruction (for Germany this was the Soviets.) |
I thought this was my position! (You may not have noticed I was careful to refer to 'Palestinians' i.e. Gaza and West Bank.
| They need to stop all this nonsense about Operation Flood being a victory, or that they are going to win long term by adopting the terrorist tactics of the Taliban. Or keep pretending that they are the chosen matyrdom people, or that they will manage to get a two state solution any time soon with the help of western protesters or the International Community, or UNRWA. In short, their White Flag protests are now the best way forward, along with giving up their hostages and guns. |
I thought this was my position!
| It's going to be bad but hopefully they will be able to at least survive and start to rebuild. |
This I totally disagree with. There will no longer be a 'they'. As individuals no doubt they will survive. Whether they will be able to rebuild is very doubtful. On past form they will live in refugee camps indefinitely, be scattered to the four winds or live on sufferance as Arab-speaking Israelis. However, in Gaza they may survive as some sort of entity because most Israelis do not regard Gaza as part of Eretz Israel.
| They now need their Adenauer. |
There's a bit of a difference, surely? The West Germans were allowed--indeed supported to the hilt--in creating a fully-functioning nation state.
| A good start would be for the Palestinians to say this should be addressed via the Abraham accords. This might hopefully get Trump on board. |
You mean, like German generals going to Luneburg Heath to parley with the Western allies rather than the Russians? Sure, why not?
| It ain't going to happen, to surrender would take real courage and to admit a dreadful wrong that you have committed. |
Gordon Bennet, Wiley, it would take more than courage.
| Much easier to carry on as before....... |
If I was a Palestinian, it's what I'd do.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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The Abraham Accords is already being used as a stalking horse for all kinds of things.
Found on Breitbart:
| It will also be critical to address media platforms that spread pro-terror and antisemitic incitement, while actively seeking to undermine normalization and the Abraham Accords. Perhaps the most influential of such platforms is Qatar’s Al Jazeera’s network. President Trump should directly raise with Doha the continued efforts of this Qatari-funded platform to glorify Hamas, counter normalization, and delegitimize those who promote peace. |
I think they're saying Al Jazeera is anti-Abraham Accords?
| By advancing Peace through Strength, the Middle East can be transformed in the coming years from a source of conflict into a hub of technological breakthroughs, economic growth and interfaith dialogue. The Abraham Accords can be deepened and expanded, while ground-breaking multilateral initiatives like the India-Middle East-Europe (IMEC) Corridor and a Middle East Defense Alliance can lead to paradigm shifts in international trade and security. These developments can have tremendous positive benefits for the Palestinian people as well. |
Just a bit of ethnic cleansing and land clearance to be done first?
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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Worth remembering and noting:
Abraham Accords (2020)
| As part of the two agreements, both the Emirates and Bahrain recognized Israel's sovereignty, enabling the establishment of full diplomatic relations. Israel's initial agreement with the Emirates marked the first instance of Israel establishing diplomatic relations with an Arab country since 1994, when the Israel–Jordan peace treaty came into effect. |
And its spin-offs / horse trading:
| On January 6, 2021, the government of Sudan signed the "Abraham Accords Declaration" in Khartoum. On December 22, 2020, the Israel–Morocco normalization agreement was signed. In exchange for Morocco's recognition of Israeli sovereignty, the United States recognized Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara. | |
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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You characterise the sheer hypocrisy of it all very well. The Abraham Accords is nothing more than "We won, get used to it."
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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What is Western Sahara?
| Western Sahara is often described as Africa's last major colony. It is a former Spanish colony on the Atlantic coast of Africa between Morocco and Mauritania. |
So used to looking at former British/French/German/Belgium colonies.
Easy to forget that everyone wanted a slice of the African pie.
| Spain withdrew from the territory in 1975, the final year of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco's life, handing over administrative control of two-thirds of the territory to Morocco, while Mauritania received a third - a move not recognised by international law. |
Mauritania is a "Where in the world .." kind of question. Most people have no idea where it is.
| The Polisario Front, an independence movement in Western Sahara, saw Spain's decision as an affront to their self-determination and clashed with both Morocco and Mauritania over control. |
Sounds like Yemen?
| In 1975, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) was established and claimed control over the entire region. Eventually, Mauritania conceded its administrative control to the Sahrawi people, but clashes with Morocco continued until 1991, when a ceasefire was signed. The ceasefire allowed Moroccan forces to remain on the western side of a 1,700-kilometre sand wall built by Rabat, where they administer control over most of the territory, including its significant mineral resources and offshore oil reserves. |
Offshore oil? Ah, now we know what all the fuss is about.
| In addition to a ceasefire, a UN peacekeeping force (MINURUSO) was established. The ceasefire also set up the promise of a UN-supervised referendum, but this vote has been stifled by Morocco for three decades. |
This being one example (among many) of the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping forces. No wonder they don't want to volunteer to send one to Ukraine.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Several decades ago, a comely Western Saharan refugee was staying in my house (not in my flat but she spent a lot of time there--platonically). I felt obligated to do what I could for her, which wasn't much, but it got me interested in all things Polisarian.
| Western Sahara is often described as Africa's last major colony. It is a former Spanish colony on the Atlantic coast of Africa between Morocco and Mauritania. So used to looking at former British/ French/ German/ Belgium colonies. Easy to forget that everyone wanted a slice of the African pie. |
I don't think Spain quite regarded the Rio de Oro as part of the Scramble of Africa in the ordinary way. More a strategic territory adjacent(ish) to the Spanish mainland.
| Spain withdrew from the territory in 1975, the final year of Spanish dictator Francisco Franco's life, handing over administrative control of two-thirds of the territory to Morocco, while Mauritania received a third - a move not recognised by international law. |
Spain is a major villain in what ensued.
| Mauritania is a "Where in the world .." kind of question. Most people have no idea where it is. |
So no change there.
| The Polisario Front, an independence movement in Western Sahara, saw Spain's decision as an affront to their self-determination and clashed with both Morocco and Mauritania over control. |
They had a very good cause to get the hump. There may not have been an actual 'Western Saharan people' but this did not prevent every other ex-colonial parcel of Africa getting its independence as its very own parcel of Africa.
The comparison hadn't occurred to me. But do go on.
| In 1975, the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) was established and claimed control over the entire region. Eventually, Mauritania conceded its administrative control to the Sahrawi people, but clashes with Morocco continued until 1991, when a ceasefire was signed. The ceasefire allowed Moroccan forces to remain on the western side of a 1,700-kilometre sand wall built by Rabat, where they administer control over most of the territory, including its significant mineral resources and offshore oil reserves. |
This is all fair enough. What really caused the mischief was the then King of Morocco marching in and declaring he would die (or something) rather than ever give up this 'part of Morocco', which it never had been as far as I know.
Since this preserved the claim in aspic, it has meant endless misery for both the people of Morocco and the people of Western Sahara.
| Offshore oil? Ah, now we know what all the fuss is about. |
I don't recall this at the time. Most people had the attitude "Who shall buy this featureless strip of desert?"
| In addition to a ceasefire, a UN peacekeeping force (MINURUSO) was established. The ceasefire also set up the promise of a UN-supervised referendum, but this vote has been stifled by Morocco for three decades. |
They have been total bastards. It has never--as far as I know--proved to be anything more than a featureless strip of desert, but nevertheless beloved by the people who happened to call it home.
| This being one example (among many) of the effectiveness of UN peacekeeping forces. No wonder they don't want to volunteer to send one to Ukraine. |
Amen to that.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | More a strategic territory adjacent(ish) to the Spanish mainland. |
That would be Ceuta.
| Ceuta is an autonomous city of Spain on the North African coast. Bordered by Morocco, it lies along the boundary between the Mediterranean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean. Ceuta is one of the special member state territories of the European Union. |
What's it good for?
| Ceuta, like Melilla and the Canary Islands, was classified as a free port before Spain joined the European Union. Its population is predominantly Christian and Muslim, with a small minority of Sephardic Jews and Sindhi Hindus, from Pakistan |
Don't know yet whether Ceuta as a freeport goes back to Phoenician times and journeys to Cornwall.
But useful to mention whenever any Spanish friends get uppity about Gibraltar. In a "Yeh? What about ..." tone of voice.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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More a strategic territory adjacent(ish) to the Spanish mainland.
That would be Ceuta. |
I put it like that to embrace the Canaries. Ceuta is adjacent.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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Israel has been caught in another war crime. Late last month, it executed 15 Palestinian medics, and then secretly buried them in a mass grave, along with their crushed vehicles.
BBC says:
| The US has said it expects "all parties on the ground" in Gaza to comply with international humanitarian law but declined to confirm whether it was carrying out its own assessment into the killing by the Israeli military of 15 people - paramedics, civil defence workers and a UN official. |
Not sure what the point is of asking the US for a response.
| Asked about the killings, state department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said: "Every single thing that happens in Gaza is happening because of Hamas." |
UN response:
| The UN's humanitarian agency has said five ambulances, a fire truck and a UN vehicle were struck "one by one" on 23 March and that 15 bodies, including paramedics still in their uniforms, had been gathered and buried in a mass grave. | |
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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I notice the BBC rarely mentions how the UK is aiding and abetting Israel. Should I mention more? Or is it all too painful?
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