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N R Scott
In: Middlesbrough
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On my way to work today I came across the following article;
| Since Theresa May called an election, 2 million young people have registered to vote |
https://www.indy100.com/article/election-2017-young-people-vote-register-electoral-theresa-may-conservatives-7753531
I found this number quite staggering. The UK has a population of 63/64 million, so this is about 3% of the entire population - 4% of the voting population if you discount the 20% under 18.
In the entirety of last year the number registered increased by just over a million.
Yet according to the above Independent article around 2.8 million registered between the 18th of April and the 22nd of May this year.
..622,389 people registered on the deadline day alone.
I guess my question is two-fold.
1) As the resident conspiracist I have to ask; are these statistics correct?
As is my normal method these days I like to compare what I see in the media with what I see in my own everyday life and over the last month or so I've not heard of anyone I know registering to vote - then again I haven't been asking,
2) If these figures are correct are they normal for the lead-up to a snap election and what effect will they have, if any?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| are they normal for the lead-up to a snap election |
As this is the only statistic that is relevant we are clearly in the land of careful ignoral. Since 'about average' means no story and no conspiracy theory, my money's on 'about average'.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| N R Scott wrote: |
1) As the resident conspiracist I have to ask; |
I have to ask if you are contributing to opinion polls prior to the vote (again).
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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That's right, I'd quite forgotten. He's the only person in Middlesborough with a phone.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| On my way to work today... |
And a job.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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However we do need to address why the opinion polls are at such a variance this time round. As it is the first time round, this is an AE matter so your theories are invited. Could you try to avoid the ones being advanced in every saloon bar in the land (technically 97.5% according to YouGuv/MyShout but they give a three per cent margin of error).
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N R Scott
In: Middlesbrough
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| Wile E. Coyote wrote: | | I have to ask if you are contributing to opinion polls prior to the vote (again). |
I got bored and stopped doing the online surveys quite a while ago, which is a shame because I would be interested in seeing what method they're using now. And what questions they're asking.
Incidentally, I've noticed a lot of support for Corbyn on my Facebook & Twitter feeds. I've never seen a politician this passionately backed by people. I'm not sure if this is a lopsided view I'm getting though as Middlesbrough is traditionally Labour and Corbyn is the first real socialist Labour leader we've had in my adult lifetime. So it might just be a return to type.
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N R Scott
In: Middlesbrough
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| N R Scott wrote: | | 1) As the resident conspiracist I have to ask; are these statistics correct? |
I've since done some fieldwork (asking people at work) and from the handful of people I asked I did come across one person that had recently registered to vote, and they were indeed in their early twenties.
From this I'm guessing that the stats are probably correct and that any conspiracy theories I have will have to go out the window :(
This is a loss from an entertainment point of view as I could've weaved quite a yarn - the huge anomalous spike in votes on the last day of registration, the 22nd of May, would've made big headlines in the news the next day were it not overshadowed by a much bigger event that occurred on the exact same day.
Anyway, back to reality, I've tried looking at the statistics for voter registration, but I can only find data going back to 2011. (In fact, even finding a correct recent population figure was hard - the closest I could find being an estimate of 65.1 million in mid-2015).
Voter registration increases/decreases;
2011. +0.6%
2012. +0.5%
2013. -0.5%
2014. -1.8%
2015. -1.3%
2016. +2.3%
18th of April to 22nd of May 2017. +6.0%
It does seem like quite a big upsurge. If I were a pollster I'd be quite cautious making any kind of prediction.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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It appears this really is a new phenomenon. This is what happened in 2010
| The Commission added more than 460,000 forms were downloaded from its website since 15 March. Nearly half of these came after last week's prime ministerial TV debate. |
Whereas, according to you, more than that registered on the very last day! I am however still concerned with why this hasn't been blazing across the headlines. Only a conspiracy of silence can explain it. Or ourselves. Thank God they'll all be on their computers on election day. Or playing garage music. Or having sex. What do the young do all day? Is there really any point to them any more?
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Wiley, it's bad enough you flouting the rules on paragraphing (that just makes your posts less likey to be read) but this is too much. You are not allowed to post up a string of URLs and expect the rest of to plough through them. That's your job.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The only poll published yesterday was Survation which shows a one per cent lead for the Conservatives. This might be a rogue but their previous polls over the last couple of weeks have shown 5, 9, 12 and 18 point leads for the Tories so it is at least significantly rogue.
It will be interesting to see the effect of the London Bridge events on how the election goes. Manchester was difficult to judge because it coincided with the Tory social care meltdown. There are two orthodoxies here:
1. That the government benefits because of hold-on-to-nurse syndrome -- especially when nurse is already the law and order party (and even more especially when the Leader of the Opposition is the 'terrorist candidate').
2. The opposition benefits on the 'if they can't deal with it we'd better find someone who can' syndrome.
But we'll have to see. Orthodoxy has not been a good electoral guide for some time now..
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The day after the 1% lead was reported by Survation, comes an eleven per cent lead from ICM. The significance of this is that the previous ICM poll also showed an eleven per cent lead, and the one before that a 12% lead. So much for a Tory 'wobble'.
It may be that the erraticness of the polls is having a real effect in that it is engendering changes of policy where none were really required. This affects the Tories more than Labour because the Tories are more 'professional' than Labour and actually capable of fine steering. Finely steering them onto the rocks it would seem. This would be an AE effect.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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I blame it on the Boreadettes (and their mates).
After the Brexit result, I told them quite firmly - "This is your fault".
The lazy apathetic tossers hadn't bothered voting, and it was the massed legions of reactionary geriatric Zimmer-frame squadrons that did us down.
For once, they might have woken up, and realised something. If you want to be part of the future, you need to be involved in the present, and make things happen. Instead of wondering what happened, or just watching it on TV.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I do not follow your logic. Since to be old is the future of the young surely it makes sense for the young to allow the old to make the decisions on their behalf.
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