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Hatty
Site Admin
In: Berkshire
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The comment which really seemed to highlight the problem of sources and authority was
| Long-standing errors made on the website are republished by respectable institutions as fact, which then are used by Wikipedia editors to buttress the veracity of the original claim. |
The academics citing Wiki, who has cited them or their peers, don't feel the need to double-check the sources. Why should they? But Wiki usually provides links to those sources or at least refers to them so it is open to anyone to follow them up.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I decided not to include this (admittedly significant) comment because it applies to all authoritative sources, not just Wiki. It is no defence to say 'it is open to anyone to follow them up' because this too is true of all authoritative sources.
In fact that's at the heart of the problem. Everyone supposes that if they dutifully follow the daisy chain (as RevHist calls it) back to the original source you have then invested so much psychic energy getting there, you are inclined to accept it at face value. And then, if you are truly passionate about it (i.e. a non-jobsworth academic, an amateur enthusiast or a conspiracy theorist), maybe start a fresh daisy chain.
Applied Epistemology does something quite other.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Can someone read this and pick the bones out of it? I can't read anything nowadays that's more than a hundred words long.
The story of PASS Theory: Origin and applications
J. P. Das, University of Alberta
John R. Kirby, Queen's University
Our purpose in this paper is to describe the origins and current applications of the PASS theory. PASS stands for Planning, Attention, Simultaneous, and Successive processing, which the theory argues are basic dimensions of cognition and intelligence. The theory is the basis for several current batteries of intellectual assessment and for approaches to intervention for low-performing individuals. https://www.academia.edu/78279141/The_story_of_PASS_Theory_Origin_and_applications?email_work_card=view-paper
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I presume they're talking about academics.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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People often know the truth -- because it is simple -- without knowing they know it. This is because they are using it for another purpose, to support whatever paradigm they already believe. I was arguing the THOBR case in a forum against orthodox-believers when
| Paul Jenkins wrote: | That is total bollocks. The languages spoken in the Isles prior to the fall of the Roman Empire are unknown. Even Ogham has few surviving words known. Goidelic Languages are thought to have arrived with the settling of the Isles by possibly Gaulish speakers.
All languages have pre-literate ancestors with little known of word meaning and pronunciation. We have no idea what language was used by hunter-gatherers before and during the late Ice Age or even of the first settlers of the isles immediately after the end of the Ice Age. I would suggest that a modern language has only existed since the earliest versions easily understood by modern speakers. Any other claim to "indigenous status" is questionable. |
| Mick Harper wrote: | | You make my case splendidly. What you say is true of all countries and all languages before the advent of writing. Yet it hasn't stopped linguists drawing up vast family trees, reconstructing dozens of ur-languages and drawing up maps of exactly who spoke what, where and when. In such a situation one is obliged to fall back on other forms of evidence. Mainly -- and this is what dishes me among the academics -- common sense. |
Up till this point -- and, alas, it will carry on being the case -- Paul accepts what the academics have been saying even though in another part of his brain he knows they can't possibly know it.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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An example of the syndrome is being played out nightly on our TV screens. The anchor -- or a correspondent in the field or a talking head - says, "The latest ceasefire has been widely ignored" or "The latest ceasefire appears to have reduced the scale of fighting" or something of that sort. An AE test would be
| Name an individual or organisation who knows whether this is true |
because of course there isn't one. Not the two generals, not the head of the CIA, not the UPI, not the best informed correspondent in Khartoum. There just isn't anyone in a position to judge whether the fighting in Sudan is more intensive, less intensive or equally intensive as the day before the cease-fire. It is (simply) an unknowable fact. Any individual (or organisation) can work this out in their head yet such is the human aversion to not-knowing that everybody (a) thinks it's knowable and (b) proceeds to report whatever it is that supports their overall position. A prize for anyone who hears
| "Unfortunately we don't whether the cease-fire is holding so I return you to the studio for an update on the weather." | |
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Two good examples of the truth being simple culled from Medium today. Here's the first
Russia Hits a Wall, Lost Their Birds, and Say: 'Hey, It's All Okay' Dylan Combellick
https://medium.com/@dylan_combellick/russia-hits-a-wall-lost-their-birds-and-say-hey-its-all-okay-98ba192ecf52
We've had some rapid developments in the past few weeks after months of trading empty fields back and forth. The Russian assault on Avdiivka continues but has made very little progress at great cost. Ukraine has acquired ATACMS and used them to great effect. The Black Sea is clearly not under Russian control, and Ukraine has freedom of navigation in the western portions of the sea. Ukraine has crossed the Dnepr river again and has perhaps established a crossing point, and Putin and Lavrov are on a tour of Asia. |
There follows a long account of the usual 'just one more push is all that's needed' type that festoons Medium, ending with a worry about NATO et al getting dragged in etc etc. I replied with my usual
| Which of the following has not changed at all during the entirety of the war: (1) the Ukrainians have had the better of the fighting (2) the Russians show no sign of giving up (3) there are constant alarms that the war will be widened which never happen? |
| Dylan Combellick wrote: | | Exactly. Except the war has widened, to Kosovo, Armenia, Israel... and will get wider still. What does an epistemologist do, exactly? |
| Mick wrote: | | Applied Epistemologist. We stick to simple but often unasked questions eg who in their right mind could possibly think the Ukraine War has widened to Kosovo, Armenia and Israel (other than via the connectedness attendant on all major world events)? |
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The other is the old 'racism is part of the human condition' argument
The Long History of Xenophobia in the United States The current political frenzy against 'migrants' is nothing new
Douglas Giles, PhD https://dgilesphilosopher.medium.com/the-long-history-of-xenophobia-in-the-united-states-fd7c9fa44b1
Sometimes, listening to politicians in the 'developed' world, one gets the impression that hordes of barbarians are at the borders. These politicians tell us to be very concerned about the threat of immigrants. What these barbarians are accused of isn't exactly clear; the message is vague beyond 'be afraid.' These reactionaries make it seem that hostility against immigrants is greater than ever. History records otherwise. |
and goes on at length in the usual outraged liberal tones. So I replied
| I have a vague prejudice against people who aren't like me. As far as I know everyone else does as well. Do you? |
| Douglas Giles, PhD wrote: | | I know many people without that prejudice. It is not a given. I overcame that prejudice and so can you. |
| Mick Harper BA wrote: | | How is it done? |
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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World Records Are Us by Mick Harper on Medium
Applied Epistemology has a principle called ‘the world record factor’. Briefly, whenever we come across a claim that such-and-such is the biggest, oldest, most valuable etc thing around, we take note. It may be something of interest to us.
Oftentimes, it is just that. The biggest, the oldest, the most valuable etc thing around and we move on to something else. If, however, we discover it has been conjoined with another ‘world record’, we’re in business. Holding, as it were, two claims to fame is sufficiently unlikely to mean there might very well be something bogus going on. Sometimes there is, sometimes there isn’t.
For instance, there is a manuscript copy of Bede’s Ecclesiastical History of the English People in the National Library of Russia in St Petersburg. Nothing unusual about that, there are lots of manuscript Bede’s around. But this one is ‘a near-contemporary version’ i.e. made in the eighth century. Since there are no actual contemporary versions, this makes the Petersburg Bede the joint world record holder as the oldest extant Bede.
Again, so what? ‘Joint’ means there is nothing particularly special about it, there are other such manuscripts kicking around. But when we read in Wiki
| Although not heavily illuminated, it is famous for containing the earliest historiated initial (one containing a picture) in European illumination. |
we know we’re in business. It beggars belief that the oldest surviving Bede would also turn out to be the earliest de dah de dah in European de dah de dah.
Long story short: Catherine the Great wanted to set up the Hermitage Library in a hurry so word was out that early manuscripts of important books were wanted. Of which precisely none were readily available so the European faking industry went into overdrive. Somebody put together a Bede manuscript and, in case other people were producing Bede manuscripts, made sure this one had a USP.
Long story long: practically everything in the Hermitage is fake, all manuscript histories of Bede are fake, Bede’s history is a fake, early English history is a fake de dah de dah de dah. But you are not being asked to believe that, you need only accept that ‘double world records’ are maybe worth a second look.
Thus we arrive at the sinking of the superyacht, Bayesian, which happened back in August off the Sicilian coast for causes yet to be determined. This event holds a world record of sorts: superyachts just don’t sink. Doubtless a few do but not in seconds, not practically in harbour, not with a professional crew on board, not on summer nights in the central Mediterranean.
Unless, possibly, a ‘downburst’ occurs. These are rare — though increasing — weather phenomena akin to water spouts and are caused by intense thunderstorms which can arise out of a clear dark Mediterranean sky and can overwhelm anything afloat in seconds. Case closed?
Not quite. This one didn’t overwhelm any of the other yachts moored nearby, they don’t sink any well-designed, professionally-crewed boat because everyone knows about ‘downbursts’, they are just one more hazard at sea that, however rare, must be catered for. That’s what makes the Bayesian sinking a world record.
So maybe the Bayesian was not well designed, maybe the crew did not act professionally, maybe — an Applied Epistemologist would enquire — there is another world record around. Which there was. The Bayesian had the biggest mast ever attached to a superyacht. To any yacht apparently.
* So it was the mast that did for the Bayesian. It was bad design.
* Unless the biggest keel in a superyacht put in by the designers to cope with having the biggest mast in a superyacht was not fully extended at the time. It was bad seamanship.
* Or a combination of both. I wouldn’t personally sail on any yacht that requires the crew to be constantly on the qui vivre for rare things that haven’t yet sunk rare yachts, just on the offchance it will happen tonight. I’d rather they got a good kip.
But all this will come out (eventually) in the official enquiry (one hopes) so why am I telling you? Because of another world record
| This year the Mediterranean sea has been warmer than at any other time in recorded history. (TV documentary on the sinking I watched last night.) |
Global warming has been increasing sea temperatures which in turn have led to more frequent downbursts which, said the voice-over, means ship-designers and professional mariners must up their game, or words to that stentorian effect.
And you can bet your bottomest dollar the official enquiry will say just that. They absolutely love producing long lists of recommendations that are vaguely appropriate. It’s their job to make recommendations, not decide whether they should be implemented or not. And official enquiries are never short of jobsworths.
No, says any applied epistemologist worth his job:
* There are all kinds of reasons for being concerned about global warming but the increase in downbursts is not one of them.
* There is no reason for anybody, designers or sailors, to do anything they are not already doing because of the increased possibility of downbursts. They are still incredibly rare and they don’t sink ships when they happen.
* But big masts on small ships should be outlawed.
That would be our sole recommendation.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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A young protégée of mine (now thirty-odd with a husband and baby) ordered a horoscope over the internet for ninety sovs. She read it out to me and very impressive it was. She was delighted with it. However it was perfectly obvious to an old hand like me it was a cold reading and applied to anyone in her position (I don't know how much detail you have to give along with your ninety pounds).
But it got me thinking. How hard can it be? I wasn't seriously thinking about setting up shop but I decided to put out a horoscope on Medium to find out. I will report reactions, if any. Plus yours, if any.
Your 2025 Horoscope
A compilation from accredited sources
Aquarius (January 20–February 18)
Your planetary aspects are unusually favourable. You must take advantage of this by making that life-changing shift you have always promised yourself. Delay will mean delay for many years.
Pisces (February 19–March 20)
You must be strong to withstand unexpected developments but the alignments indicate you will do so and emerge all the stronger for it.
Aries (March 21–April 19)
A year for taking stock. Do not make irrevocable decisions but ensure that everything is in place for when you do. You will find yourself buoyed up by the process.
Taurus (April 20–May 20)
Mixed fortunes will be your lot. Do not be carried away by either the good or the bad, but use each to understand and benefit from the other. You will look back on a job well done.
Gemini (May 21–June 20)
An excellent year for decision-making. But make sure it really is a ‘decision’ and not the prevarication you are so often prone to. A decision not to do it is a decision but only if you really mean it.
Cancer (June 21–July 22)
This is not the year for risk, it is the year for change. Doing nothing is a risk.
Leo (July 23–August 22)
You have reached the end of this cycle and while it has brought you many benefits, the law of diminishing returns will soon become evident. Have everything in place for the new cycle.
Virgo (August 23–September 22)
You are on the cusp. It is a entirely a matter for you whether you grasp the opportunity or let this momentous year pass you by.
Libra (September 23–October 22)
This is a down year. Do not expect anything to ‘land in your lap’. Yet you will emerge more prosperous at the end than the beginning thanks to your perseverance.
Scorpio (October 23–November 21)
You will be troubled by bad news but fortitude will result in unexpected gains. Beware of being a rock for others rather than for yourself... and others.
Sagittarius (November 22–December 21)
Your alignments are equivocal. You can expect neither help nor hindrance but must make your own way. Next year’s alignments suggest you will succeed.
Capricorn (December 22–January 19)
Everything is in your favour. It will be a tragedy if you do not take advantage of this relatively fleeting opportunity.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The known provenance of the medieval history of the St. Petersburg Bede is that it belonged to Achille III de Harlay (d. 1712) of Grosbois. This is known as his arms are on the binding, his son, Achille IV, donated the manuscript to the abbey of St-Germain-des-Pres in 1717.
It was acquired in 1791 by Peter Dubrowsky along with many other manuscripts. Dubrowsky also aquired some runic books formerly owned by Queen Anne. All his acquisitions were shipped to Russia. The runic books have disappeared.
Britain would have a very strong case for demanding its immediate return from Russia, if only we could establish provenance before 1717.
I fear, sadly, we might be unable to do so........
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Do you know why electric trains are best? It's because the train doesn't have to carry its own fuel. This is so superior in terms of efficiency it knocks steam and diesel out of the park. (Bring on atomic trains.)
| That is simple and obvious. |
But I didn't realise it until somebody mentioned it on a YouTube the other day. When people talked about the desirability of electrification schemes I thought vaguely it must be that electricity was cheaper than other fuels
| even though, at the time, I knew it wasn't! |
We were all getting out of electricity for, say, space heating or, if we were stuck with it, having to use those white box thingies filled with bricks that stored up off-peak electricity or something. (Electricity 7, was it called?) Jaysus, primitive or what?
| But YTF couldn't I see that? |
Although now I have, I am wondering why it is cheaper having stupendous amounts of fuel just lying around on the offchance some train is going to come along and use it. Storing electricity must be helluva cheap. If so, maybe white boxes weren't such a bad idea after all. And so on and so forth... no need to put me straight, I can do that for myself if I feel the need.
| But that brings us on to electric cars. |
They have to carry their fuel around with them and that's bad, I know that much. Now. So why aren't they picking it up through their tyres or something as they whizz along the motorway? Don't bother to etc etc. I know rubber isn't a great conductor of electricity. Unless they're steel radials. Obviously.
PS Why could I not type electricity properly even once in this post? That's something I'll think about tomorrow.
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Grant
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I've always wondered what would have happened to steam trains if the government hadn't decided they were old technology and gave British Rail millions to phase them out.
They would definitely still be running in the 70s but would they have made the 80s or perhaps 90s.
And what about trams and trolley cars? They were disposed of by civil servants following the latest fad, which was the petrol car and bus.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The error, according to orthodoxy, is keeping steam in the forties. The big mistake in the seventies, they say, was the abandonment of the (British) tilting train. Trams have come back into fashion, trolleybuses not.
This last reminds me of something that has always puzzled me. Metal wheels on metal rails is a very nineteenth century technology. Yet still reigns supreme.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Reading a very long and convoluted book about the Manson Murders, I had a 'the truth is always boring' moment.
I had not got any kind of angle on the murders--which was, in part, why I was reading on--when the author put forward, among many others, a theory as to why the murders happened, and which I immediately 'recognised' to be the simple and relatively boring truth.
I have no idea of course whether it is, nor whether the author will turn out to agree with me, I'm only a quarter way through the book. But I will put it here as an example of how AE operates.
1. The Manson 'family' had a neighbour they thought had inherited $20,000.
2. In order to get him to hand the money over, Manson ordered some members of the Family to torture him.
3. By the time they had failed they didn't have much choice but to kill him.
4. Manson (who had not been present) ordered them to make it look like a Black Panther robbery.
5. One of the Family was picked up by the police later sleeping in the neighbour's van and which had one of the murder weapons hidden in a spare tyre.
6. He was charged with the murder and phoned the Family to tell them what had happened.
7. Manson ordered the Family to carry out the Sharon Tate murders the next day, leaving Black Panther signs.
8. The sole purpose of this was to persuade the police it was the same Black Panther gang and that therefore the Family member who, being in custody when the second was committed, couldn't have done the first.
9. Not so much boring as banal. This is an important aspect of all such causes célèbre because it doesn't matter how many celebrities get drawn into the mix, banality is not permitted. Or even considered.
10 AE-ists should always be on the lookout for unexpected banality.
It reminds me of my Titanic theory. It was a coal fire in one of the bunkers followed by an electrical fault in the automatic flood control system.
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Pete Jones
Site Admin
In: Virginia
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I don't remember exactly, but I agree that he simply HAS to pick this back up.
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