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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Whats going to happen is that the % of fully trained of those soldiers able to use drones within each battalion, platoon, company will keep on rising, and rising, and it wont carry on as before. |
Sounds the same way new weapons are always taken on board to me, but do go on...
| The speed and agility will become much faster. Important militrary decisions will always be a combination of human and AI. |
There are too many concepts fighting for space here for me to comment usefully.
| The vehicles of the future will be agile armoured personal (small companies of drone operators) carriers like Strykers with anti drone technology. |
Maybe. But nobody's ever guessed the way things turn out.
| The tanks stand no chance. |
Maybe. But nobody's ever guessed the way things turn out.
| The old idea of combined breakthroughs using tanks is over. The Ukranians sent loads of soldiers to be trained in the UK, and elsewhere, to learn how to do these sort of breakthroughs, and fully armed with the knowledge and the western technology tried to carry it out in 2023..... |
I would never send soldiers to Britain for training but no doubt it would have been the same anywhere.
| It was a disaster. All 14 villages captured by Ukraine in the 2023 counteroffensive: Andriivka, Blahodatne, Klishchiivka, Levadne, Lobkove, Makarivka, Neskuchne, Novodarivka, Piatykhatky, Rivnopil, Robotyne, Staromaiorske, Storozheve and Urozhaine, were subsequently lost back to Russia. |
Sounds like the Battle of Cambrai, 1917 when massed tanks were first used.
| The West has blamed this on the Ukranians not following their advice, not having air superiority etc. |
Typical.
| Wiley notes it basically went the same way as the Russian offences did since 2023, no breakthrough very high casualty levels. |
Agreed.
| The problem is that this sort of thinking does not work anymore. There is really no way that this will ever work. |
I have noticed that people divide into two camps: 'This will always work' and 'This will never work.'
| https://www.facebook.com/theroyalarmouredcorps/videos/tanktuesday-armour-and-infantry-working-together-in-the-urban-environment-a-powe/934762936113205/ |
Urban warfare seems the last redoubt of the tank because drones are less effective. If so, it would be ironic, since traditional doctrine says tanks should be used in open country and definitely not in urban settings.
| The idea that you are going to counter this by having drones overhead, to shoot their drones is bonkers. |
It may turn out to be unfeasible but it is certainly not 'bonkers'.
| Their observation drones have relayed back in real time to their artillery who will kill you, even if their drones dont. |
I agree, however, that the real revolution drones have wrought is that battlefields -- and everything in it -- can be observed in real time.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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With the integration of AI with drones, and Robots we will also have to combat legions of thinking machines that will operate autonomously on the battlefield. They will be able to track our guys by analyzing their uniforms, their behavior, and what they are carrying, working out what is our threat. This will be very different to a human enemy, our soldiers are probably not trained to face drones, let alone drones with AI yet.
Wiley sees no future for tanks in urban warfare with infantry crouching behind them.
Drones are very effective in urban warfare ideal for reconnisance, they can fly in and out of destroyed and partially destroyed buidings. You just need many more reconnisance drones than in more open areas.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Russia's problem is not, running out of soldiers, equipment or artillery shells to attack, it will not run out of air defences.
It just cannot produce enough air defences/interceptors to meet the increasing waves of Ukranian drones and missiles.
Ukranian logistics are now better.
The Ukranians are now capable of slowly opening the Russian wound for the forseeable. The Russians can and will still go forward, but they actually need to accelerate, they need to rapidly win, or they will slowly bleed out.
Vladdy needs to give another flog to his dying charger.......
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | With the integration of AI with drones, and Robots we will also have to combat legions of thinking machines that will operate autonomously on the battlefield. |
Agreed. (At the moment.)
| They will be able to track our guys by analyzing their uniforms, their behavior, and what they are carrying, working out what is our threat. This will be very different to a human enemy, our soldiers are probably not trained to face drones, let alone drones with AI yet. |
Agreed. (And will remain so until we learn the lesson for ourselves in an actual war.)
| Wiley sees no future for tanks in urban warfare with infantry crouching behind them. |
Not entirely agreed. We don't know how the very most modern western tanks stand up to drones. They would, it is true, be overwhelmed in open country but in an urban setting, it is only 'may be'.
| Drones are very effective in urban warfare ideal for reconnisance, they can fly in and out of destroyed and partially destroyed buidings. You just need many more reconnisance drones than in more open areas. |
That may be so but drones are much less effective even when there are leaves on the trees so I refuse to be dogmatic on their superiority in all circumstances.
| Russia's problem is not, running out of soldiers, equipment or artillery shells to attack, it will not run out of air defences. |
I rather thought it was.
| It just cannot produce enough air defences/interceptors to meet the increasing waves of Ukranian drones and missiles. |
And so do you, by the sound of it.
| Ukranian logistics are now better. |
Incomparably.
| The Ukranians are now capable of slowly opening the Russian wound for the forseeable. The Russians can and will still go forward, but they actually need to accelerate, they need to rapidly win, or they will slowly bleed out. |
Agreed.
| Vladdy needs to give another flog to his dying charger....... |
The problem is it's still a very big hoss.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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That may be so but drones are much less effective even when there are leaves on the trees so I refuse to be dogmatic on their superiority in all circumstances.
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Troops sheltering around a tank in an urban enviroment are really making a big mistake. The tank will be identified as a target. You dont want troops gathered together, you only want the drones taking out just one of the troops at a time. You certainly dont want tanks and troops together.
Your survival rate does alter in trees or ubran enviroments. Once you get into the death zones it rises from 0-1% (no hope really in open areas closer to the front) to about 66% (out of 3, 1 of you is not returning) even if you are trained and camaflaged and able to use treelines. The death zone is about 18 miles, thats lots of space you need to get across without being spotted. Defenders can work out likely routes, according to cover, they will likly have mined etc.......
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| That may be so but drones are much less effective even when there are leaves on the trees so I refuse to be dogmatic on their superiority in all circumstances. Troops sheltering around a tank in an urban enviroment are really making a big mistake. The tank will be identified as a target. You dont want troops gathered together, you only want the drones taking out just one of the troops at a time. You certainly dont want tanks and troops together. |
Thanks. I'll put it all in a memo for CIGS.
| Your survival rate does alter in trees or ubran enviroments. Once you get into the death zones it rises from 0-1% (no hope really in open areas closer to the front) to about 66% (out of 3, 1 of you is not returning) even if you are trained and camaflaged and able to use treelines. The death zone is about 18 miles, thats lots of space you need to get across without being spotted. Defenders can work out likely routes, according to cover, they will likly have mined etc....... |
It's true, this is the bit nobody seems to have cracked. It goes back to my comment about 'drones providing real time surveillance of the battlefield':
* In the very old days of up-close-and-personal, troops made themselves as conspicuous as possible to put the frighteners on the enemy.
* Then, when killing was more at-a-distance, they made themselves as inconspicuous as possible to avoid being killed before they could kill.
* Now, the situation is kinda the worst of both worlds.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Whilst the spectacular long range drone strikes make the daily news, and the losses in the grey zone, make the opinion pieces, (the end of tanks, why Russia is failing to advance...)
Ukraine is concentrating on launching its drones against targets deep into the occupied zones trying to destroy Russian logistics.
The worrying things for Ivan is their logistics appear not to be guarded adequately by air defences for now.
The Ukranians appear to have developed the knack of overloading the Russian air defences. Russia cant defend both their refineries, ports and......their military logistics in the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine all at the same time.
Ivan has an unpleasant choice much needed more barrels of oil or maintaing logistics.
Ukraine has had to make similar tough choices since the start of the war, will Russia handle this better? If they get it wrong, they could end up (say it quietly) going backwards in the occupied territories.....
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Whilst the spectacular long range drone strikes make the daily news, and the losses in the grey zone, make the opinion pieces, (the end of tanks, why Russia is failing to advance...) |
It's not quite cut and dried but it looks as though, short of full mobilisation and a war economy, Russia's goose is cooked.
| Ukraine is concentrating on launching its drones against targets deep into the occupied zones trying to destroy Russian logistics. The worrying things for Ivan is their logistics appear not to be guarded adequately by air defences for now. |
As I pointed out, this is the first time Russia's vast size has become a handicap not an advantage.
| The Ukranians appear to have developed the knack of overloading the Russian air defences. Russia cant defend both their refineries, ports and......their military logistics in the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine all at the same time. |
And they appear to be getting better and better at it. Why Putin has not seen the writing on the wall and got out of the war before he has to get out of Russia is very strange.
| Ivan has an unpleasant choice much needed more barrels of oil or maintaing logistics. |
It will be the latter. They can survive without the money from oil exports--they'd be well advised to abandon that, in my view--but what they need for domestic and war purposes can be met, if necessary, by trucking and railroading crude via small inland refineries to end-users.
| Ukraine has had to make similar tough choices since the start of the war, will Russia handle this better? If they get it wrong, they could end up (say it quietly) going backwards in the occupied territories..... |
I worry about this. If Russia starts seriously retreating it will be Ukraine digging in their heels when it comes to peace negotiations. Already there is talk about recapturing 'their Crimea'. If so, let us hope the Europeans have the wisdom to read them the riot act.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I am surprised the Ukrainians haven't turned to a very old-fashioned weapon of war, pamphlet-dropping. It was what Bomber Command was reduced to in the Phony War of 1939-40 and was absurdly ineffective then but the situation is different now.
Thanks to Putin's clamping down of Telegram et al, Russians are not being given accurate up-to-date news of the war. They might vote with their brandished fists if they did.
Nor were Germans under the Nazis of course but the difference is that there was nothing to tell the Germans in 1939-40. Now there is plenty of it and it's all bad. The average Russian does suspect enough to believe the truth, even a Ukrainian truth (if they do it properly which the British never managed to do).
Plus there is a bonus. Every time a pamphlet reaches the man on the Omsk omnibus he learns, incidentally, that Ukrainian drones can go wherever they please in his vast country, and they won't always be only the bearer of bad news.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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You heard about Russian soldiers dressed as penguins because the AI in drones could not recognise them as Russian soldiers. Now they are dressed up as toilets.
These are one-person zip-up temporary outdoor facilities,* presumably with holes for feet. As one mirthless Ukrainian drone-controller put it: 'They'll be needing them when they hear my baby coming.'
* As used at Glastonbury.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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It is looking more and more as if Putin will get his way and Russia will be united with Ukraine once more. The rate the Ukrainians are advancing they'll soon be in Moscow.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | It is looking more and more as if Putin will get his way and Russia will be united with Ukraine once more. The rate the Ukrainians are advancing they'll soon be in Moscow. |
In terms of where Ukraine can now strike Russia. Ukraine can now hit targets, roughly 2000 km into Russia way past Moscow and St Petersberg. Vladdy is having to retreat his air defences, backwards (even if his front line holds) and soon will have to use netting over vast areas, of roads and cities as Ukraine further ramps up Drone production.
Kallas, who somehow gets away with being cheeky, when dealing with serious matters, has suggested that Vladdy withdraws from Moldova, to demonstrate his goodwill, prior to any negotiations with Ukraine and (stiletto to the scrotum) Europe....
You would not want to be the Ivan having to pass that onto the Baddy in his bunker.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | In terms of where Ukraine can now strike Russia. Ukraine can now hit targets, roughly 2000 km into Russia way past Moscow and St Petersberg. Vladdy is having to retreat his air defences, backwards (even if his front line holds) and soon will have to use netting over vast areas, of roads and cities as Ukraine further ramps up Drone production. |
It's more than this, I would have thought. Remember, the 'new way of war' is only a few years old and we only have one example of a country (Ukraine) waging it. The question now becomes whether any country can defend its infrastructure. The old model was
* expensive but small attacking forces against
* less expensive but larger forces defending
* a great many targets
* accepting containable losses on both sides.
Unless (until?) really effective anti-drone technology comes along, it will be
* infinite amounts of attacking forces against
* overwhelmed forces defending
* a great many targets
* with losses irrelevant to the attacking side
Infrastructure is finite, drone supply isn't.
| Kallas, who somehow gets away with being cheeky, when dealing with serious matters, has suggested that Vladdy withdraws from Moldova, to demonstrate his goodwill, prior to any negotiations with Ukraine and (stiletto to the scrotum) Europe.... |
Never heard of him. Do tell.
| You would not want to be the Ivan having to pass that onto the Baddy in his bunker. |
I would not want to be Baddy. He cannot even sue for peace now.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: |
I would not want to be Baddy. He cannot even sue for peace now. |
As Ukraine is now attacking Russia, he could trigger Article 4 of the CTSO, to get much needed additional help.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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That would certainly be an interesting exercise. "Ring again when RSFSR territory is threatened," would be my guess as to the average response.
There has been talk lately of Belarus mobilising along the Ukrainian frontier which, however unlikely to lead to an invasion, would be seriously incommoding to Ukraine if it did. Especially if Little Russians turned out to be better fighters than Great Russians.
This all comes from the West not being as stern as it ought to have been to Lukashenko for allowing the original invasion to be mounted from Belarus territory. It got carefully ignored at the time, if you remember.
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