War on Terrorism (Politics)

[Mick Harper]

We can be reasonably confident now that Iran will either win the war or emerge unchanged, if not unscathed, from it. But clearly the government hasn't.

* The ayatollahs very foolishly chose a continuity candidate with no credibility and promptly disappeared from sight. In the Supreme Leader's case, literally. We can anticipate they will be the big losers.

* The civilian central government of president + the majlis seems to have played little part in the war which, presumably, means not majorly featuring after the war. What has been going on at lower levels may be different but even solid warwork will, presumably, mean they'll still be at lower levels when the smoke clears.

* The regular armed forces have been ineffectual. The regular air force and navy were pretty much extinguished early on, the ground-to-air forces have had a success rate of one-to-two per ten thousand enemy sorties and the army will be a no-show unless there is a prolonged land campaign, which seems unlikely.

* Leaving the IRGC who have flourished as never before. They are unlikely to give up their monopolistic position, irrespective of their theoretical loyalties. Whoever does? So we must now consider what an Iran under the IRGC will be like...

[Mick Harper]

Peace has been declared!

This will be President Trump's eighth or ninth war (opinions are divided) he has brought to a successful conclusion. But there's a fly in the ointment. Ten flies actually, since the US has agreed to a ceasefire on the basis of 'Iran's ten-point plan' and they are all, shall we say, a bit iffy.

[Wile E. Coyote]

All the peace plans are coming together....

The Board of Peace (Gaza) have given Hamas till the end of the week to state they accept the Board of Peace disarmament proposal.

US President Donald Trump is apparently hopeful that they can then move forward with his plan for ending the Gaza war.

Wiley is a bit less hopeful.

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

If it is true that the Kremlin wants to take “currently unused” savings in private banks for “emergency repairs” of the oil facilities at the ports of Ust-Luga, Primorsk, and Novorossiysk, which are “begging for help.” then things are getting very bad indeed.

Valentina Matviyenko (the Chair of the Federation Council of Russia) said this isn’t confiscation but a “temporary redirection” and the depositors will be eventually repaid with interest.

Russian Patiots will see this as a useful way of supporting the war effort. In the decadent west this would cause a rush to withdraw savings causing the banks to collapse.

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]

Things have taken a desperate turn for poor old Benjamin Netanyahu.

Israelis are '79% in favour of the war in Lebanon' according to polls. When asked their view of toning it down temporarily to help Trump's ceasefire, one said, "What are we, another star on the American flag?" When a dog starts accusing his own tail of presumption he can't expect Pedigree Chum for tea.

Talking of which, Netanyahu understands only too well the perils of upsetting his White House buddy, so he has to do something. Joining the Israeli doves won't get him re-elected. Once you add the 21% of Israeli voters who are Palestinian to the 79%, there's only him left.

[Mick Harper]

How d'ya fancy a truly insoluble world problem?

* I don't mean intractable ones, like the Palestinians. Everyone can see the light at the end of the tunnel however distant it might be. The problem will be solved as soon as the light goes out.

* I don't mean ones we won't solve, like global warming. Everyone can see the light at the end of the tunnel and it is the train coming towards us, we just choose not to solve it.

* I mean a problem like the Sahel, where the solution is worse than the problem. Specifically the insurgencies sprouting everywhere and getting worse everywhere. There are no tunnels there. Or everyone's in one.

I shall be talking about this from time to time. It is truly horrific.

[Mick Harper]

I can start in Nigeria, far and away the most populous and richest country in the Sahel. It has an Al-Shabaab insurrection going from strength to strength in their northern, i.e. Sahelian, parts. The Nigerian government has not sought outside assistance in combating it.

The other day the Nigerian airforce bombed a marketplace killing untold numbers of locals but not, as far is known, any Al-Shabbabians. They said this was pilot error but when asked who the pilot had been sent out to bomb it was 'Al-Shabaab terrorists shaking down local shopkeepers.'

It is difficult to see how this might be accomplished from the air save by bombing the marketplace and hoping to catch a coupla shakedown artists in the act. This summates the central problem:

1. All the central governments of the Sahel are incredibly incompetent.
2. This leads to popular discontent.
3. This leads to the growth of insurgent movements.
4. Which cannot be dealt with because of (1).

But why now, why this kind of insurrection and why are they all growing seemingly unstoppably? And why is it now being asked by the locals: 'Which is worse, being governed by the government or by the insurrectionists?'

[Mick Harper]

There's an interesting court case going on in France at the moment. Lafarge is France's biggest cement company with major plants in Syria (which was, you might recall, French territory not so long ago). The directors of LaFarge have been hauled up for 'financing terrorism'.

[Mick Harper]

But it's a whole lot weirder on the other side of the Channel.

1. HMG declares Palestine Action to be a terrorist organisation.
2. It's totally daft but the police have no alternative but to start knocking down old ladies' doors in dawn raids and carting them off to gaol for saying, "I don't think Palestine Action are terrorists. Do you, Ada?"
3. High Court declares Palestine Action is not a terrorist organisation.
4. Old ladies released from gaol.
5. Old ladies hit streets in jubilation.
6. Police cart them off to gaol again.
7. Old ladies point out Palestine Action is no longer a terrorist organisation.
8. Police point out it's under appeal.
9. 'Here's your pickaxe, there's your pile of granite. Get that zimmer frame moving.'
10 Starmer still in office.

[Mick Harper]

American news anchor: What do you say to credible reports you have broken the Lebanese ceasefire four hundred times in the first twenty-four hours?
Israeli spokesperson: That is a ceasefire by our standards.

[Mick Harper]

The Israelis are highly vexed though. At the news of the ceasefire being officially agreed by the Israeli and Lebanese governments, a million Lebanese forced out of their homes to seek refuge north of the Litani (and, later, north of those refuges) have come surging back.

The Israelis had thought they had prevented this by blowing all the bridges (not a war crime because Hezbollah, lacking amphibious equipment, often uses these bridges). When make-do-and-mend is supplemented by a bit of civil engineering assistance from the Lebanese army, nothing could stop the human tide. Now the poor old Israelis will have to do it all over again. Let's hope they have good back channels with Hezbollah.

A ceasefire historian writes: this is one of those very rare ceasefires in which both combatants are raring to take the 'cease' out of ceasefire.

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

The war on opium has almost been won in the west, folks are opting for synthetic lab produced drugs.

We can now safely let the Taliban, and the Columbians cartels get on with their evil trade. No more setting fire to poppy fields or targetting Venezuelan boats needed, we instead need to carpet bomb laboratories.

These labs are often situated in the massive producer nations like China and India. That surely wont stop us.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-68669244