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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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But note, Iran is not breaking any Law of the Sea by closing the Strait, whether wholly or partially (in both senses). That is a legitimate 'act of war'. If the US and Iran both decide the war is over then Hormuz returns to free-flow whatever they say to one another.
If Trump declares victory, and withdraws. Iran will also declare victory. In that situation there will not have been an agreement, and so there will be no return to normality. |
This is irrelevant. If Iran does anything other than allow all shipping through as before it will be de facto at war with any nation whose ship is impeded.
| The Toll booth in operation, will then remain, until Iran says otherwise. |
Even if the Gulf states pay up with more or less good grace, they will only be doing so because of the fear of Iranian armed force. But since every country in the world either has ships going through the Straits or is a recipient of things shipped through the states and notionally arriving at a higher price because they had to pay tolls, Iran would be at war with the whole world. The world, I suppose, may accept this with a good grace but I don't think it likely.
| Trumps view is that it is up to the tankers and any nation they are flagged to, to ensure their own safe passage, as he has helpfully destroyed all of Irans weapons and navy. |
That is true, in a sense. It is true of 'free navigation' of 'the high seas' everywhere in the world since there is no formal machinery for ensuring it. But the fact is, it is not impaired anywhere else (that I can think of).
I don't suppose anyone will point this out but if America acquiesces (having created the problem in the first place) they would be essentially resigning their last claims to being the World Policeman.
| His opinion is if the UK is worried it should send its own fleet to ensure safe passage. |
He's not wrong there but it will never come to this. If Iran chooses to levy tolls on the Strait as a permanent measure, every Iranian cargo that shows up anywhere in the world is in danger of being confiscated toot sweet.
| Folks will have a choice pay the toll or see what happens when they use the Strait. |
I make this formal prediction: no ship will ever pay a toll to use the Strait.
| The US doesnt really use the Strait that much, because the US has its own oil and will increasingly control Venezuelan supplies. Trump is therefore not that concerned. |
You shouldn't listen too much to Trump. If you think the USA is 'unconcerned' that one of the most important principles of world trade has been breached and oil, gas and fertiliser markets are imperilled, you must be Donald Trump.
| Wiley agrees with you that pre-Trump it was important to protect global supply chains, and enforce international marutime law, but the reality on the ground is that MAGA is not, it is instinctively hostile to rules institutions and international laws. It does not want to be an international policeman. |
This may well be so. Unfortunately they find themselves under the rule of a decidedly unMAGArish president.
| With Iran in control of the Strait, there is litltle anybody can realistically do, and the suggested attempts, to take the strait away from Irans control are militarily bonkers. |
This is quite correct. It is presumably why Iran is doing it. Of course the Strait won't be under Iran's control when peace returns, as it hasn't been for hundred/thousands of years.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| I make this formal prediction: no ship will ever pay a toll to use the Strait. |
According to Llyods List two vessels have already paid. That was over a week ago.....The OSINT shows they are using the toll booth. Or maybe they are being waived through......
If Iran chooses to levy tolls on the Strait as a permanent measure, every Iranian cargo that shows up anywhere in the world is in danger of being confiscated toot sweet.
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You mean like the incredibly effective International action against all the rest of the grey fleet, false flagged tankers up to now? Iran must be quaking, that the US is going to reintroduce the sanctions on its oil, that the US has just taken off Iran as the US is worried about the price. .......
Iran sells most of its oil to BRICS countries, particularly China, Iran wont toll countries that help it rebuild, its only its enemies that will pay. Grey fleet are already leaving Gulf with Irans consent full of Iranian oil.
Of course the Strait won't be under Iran's control when peace returns, as it hasn't been for hundred/thousands of years.
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Unfortunately the development of drone technology, means that it is quite possible for the Iranians to control this chokepoint at this time because it is a world leader, and has learnt the lessons, of the Russia Ukraine War. The low cost drones allow Ukraine to control the Black Sea without a fleet....
The problem is that the west is just going to either have to stop using the Strait, and take longer routes, or pay.
First problem is to get the many yellow vessels trapped inside the Gulf out, without paying the toll.
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Pete Jones
Site Admin
In: Virginia
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If there's a real toll, what currency will it be in? If two ships paid, how did they pay?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I make this formal prediction: no ship will ever pay a toll to use the Strait.
According to Llyods List two vessels have already paid. That was over a week ago.....The OSINT shows they are using the toll booth. Or maybe they are being waived through...... |
Whoops! But you know what I mean.
If Iran chooses to levy tolls on the Strait as a permanent measure, every Iranian cargo that shows up anywhere in the world is in danger of being confiscated toot sweet.
You mean like the incredibly effective International action against all the rest of the grey fleet, false flagged tankers up to now? Iran must be quaking, that the US is going to reintroduce the sanctions on its oil, that the US has just taken off Iran as the US is worried about the price. ....... |
There is no comparison. But if you do wish to compare, it shows that Iran's got far more to lose in terms of international outrage than it will ever gain from illegal tolls.
| Iran sells most of its oil to BRICS countries, particularly China, Iran wont toll countries that help it rebuild, its only its enemies that will pay. Grey fleet are already leaving Gulf with Irans consent full of Iranian oil. |
If BRICS wants to be indefinitely à outrance to the rest of the world, I think various members will allow their membership to lapse. Egypt and the UAE for starters.
Of course the Strait won't be under Iran's control when peace returns, as it hasn't been for hundred/thousands of years.
Unfortunately the development of drone technology, means that it is quite possible for the Iranians to control this chokepoint at this time because it is a world leader, and has learnt the lessons, of the Russia Ukraine War. The low cost drones allow Ukraine to control the Black Sea without a fleet.... |
I'm not disputing Iran can control the Strait if it wishes to. The question is does it want to take on the world (less BRICS apparently) indefinitely.
| The problem is that the west is just going to either have to stop using the Strait, and take longer routes, or pay. |
Yes, that's what it's had to do for the last month. And maybe for another month. Maybe two. Maybe a year. I don't know how long the war will go on.
| First problem is to get the many yellow vessels trapped inside the Gulf out, without paying the toll. |
I would pay the toll if I were them. What diff?
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Pete Jones wrote: | | If there's a real toll, what currency will it be in? If two ships paid, how did they pay? |
The speculation is that it was in Yuan, with clearing taking place in the Gulf, but it could be Crypto, its almost impossible to monitor, the problem is that Iran has previously been disconnected and reconnected then disconnected from SWIFT, (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) since 2012 so has the best part of 15 years finding creative workarounds.
Trust also operates differently in this area Hawala or hewala (Arabic: ?????? ?aw?la, meaning transfer or sometimes trust), originating in India as havala (Hindi: ?????), also known as havaleh in Persian,[1] and xawala or xawilaad[2] in Somali, is a popular and informal value transfer system based on the performance and honour of a huge network of money brokers (known as hawaladars).
They operate outside of, or parallel to, traditional banking, financial channels and remittance systems. The system requires a minimum of two hawaladars that take care of the "transaction" without the movement of cash or telegraphic transfer. While hawaladars are spread throughout the world, they are primarily located in the Middle East, North Africa, the Horn of Africa and the Indian subcontinent. Hawala follows Islamic traditions, but its use is not limited to Muslims.[3] | |
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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So my prediction that nobody will ever pay a toll is still just about in play!
| Trust also operates differently in this area |
This might turn out to be more important long term than we might suppose. The Gulf Arabs must be furious at their patron, the Americans, stirring up a hornets' nest where hitherto all was, if not sweetness and light, at least business as usual. And finding themselves on the side of Israel against fellow-Muslims can't be doing them any favours on 'the street' either.
When the reckoning comes, and they start adding up the numbers, they might easily come to the conclusion that Gulf Arabs should read Gulf Muslims. It is noticeable that while Iran is bombing their assets in careless profusion, the Arab states are not bombing Iran's. They know Iran is only doing it out of necessity.
A Gulf Bund would make for a much more cohesive alliance than OPEC or BRICS or TOAST (Tatterdemalions Of American Strategic Trumpery). Sitting smugly behind their Strait of Hormuz.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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If the US is going to solve this by opening up the Strait, it needs to recreate an updated version of Operation Earnest Will
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Earnest_Will
Operation Earnest Will (24 July 1987 – 26 September 1988) was an American military protection of Kuwaiti-owned tankers from Iranian attacks in 1987 and 1988, three years into the Tanker War phase of the Iran–Iraq War.[2] It was the largest naval convoy operation since World War II, and flowed from Resolution 598 which had been adopted three days earlier.
The U.S. Navy warships that escorted the tankers, part of U.S. Naval Forces Central Command, were the operations' most visible part. U.S. Air Force AWACS radar planes provided surveillance and U.S. Army special-operations helicopters hunted for possible attackers. |
The AEL took a look at the sinking of the USS Stark, they will need good communication with their allies, (?) who will need to be brought in on the operation, from the start.......
Before Earnest Will formally began, it became clear how dangerous Persian Gulf operations would be. On 17 May 1987, an Iraqi jet fired two Exocet missiles at the guided missile frigate USS Stark, killing 37 sailors and injuring 21. Iraqi officials said that the targeting of the U.S. warship was accidental.[2][10][11][12] |
First lesson here they need to check and clear mines.
| On the very first escort mission, on 24 July 1987, the Kuwaiti oil tanker al-Rekkah, re-flagged as the U.S. tanker MV Bridgeton and accompanied by US navy warships, struck an Iranian underwater mine planted some 20 miles (32 km) west of Farsi Island the night earlier by a Pasdaran special unit, damaging the ship, but causing no injuries. Bridgeton proceeded under her own power to Kuwait, with the U.S. Navy escorts following behind to avoid mines. |
| It was an unforeseen development. The commander of the task force admitted that in spite of intelligence warnings, no one had thought it necessary to check the route for naval mines,[20] and it was soon brought out that not only did the U.S. not have any minesweepers in the Persian Gulf, |
Lesson 2, they will need to be in this for the long term
| In the following 14 months, many U.S. warships took up escort duties. At one point, more than 30 warships were in the region to support the operation.[ |
Lesson 3 they will need to control the legth of Irans coast with co-ordinated Special forces attacks.
Earnest Will overlapped with Operation Prime Chance, a largely secret effort to stop Iranian forces from attacking Persian Gulf shipping. Despite the protection offered by U.S. Navy vessels, Iran used mines and small boats to harass the convoys steaming to and from Kuwait, at the time a principal ally of Iraq. In late July 1987, Rear Admiral Harold J. Bernsen, Commander, Middle East Force, requested Naval Special Warfare assets. Special Boat Teams deployed with six Mark III Patrol Boats and two Navy SEAL platoons in August.[22] The Middle East Force decided to convert two oil service barges, Hercules and Wimbrown VII, into mobile sea bases. These were moored in the northern Persian Gulf, allowing special operations forces to thwart clandestine Iranian mining and small boat attacks.
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Lesson 4 They will lose ships and crews to mines.
Operation Praying Mantis
Main article: Operation Praying Mantis
On 14 April 1988, 65 miles (105 km) east of Bahrain, the frigate USS Samuel B. Roberts hit a mine, blowing an immense hole in its hull.[23] 10 sailors were injured. The U.S. retaliated fiercely. On 18 April, U.S. forces launched Operation Praying Mantis, attacking the Iranian fast-attack craft Joshan, the frigates Sabalan and Sahand and Revolutionary Guard bases in the Sirri and Sassan oil fields.[2][23] After U.S. warships bombarded the Sirri base, located on an oil platform, and set it ablaze, a UH-60 helicopter with a SEAL platoon flew toward the platform but was unable to get close enough because of the roaring fire. Secondary explosions soon wrecked the platform. |
Lesson 5 there will be mistakes
| On 3 July 1988, USS Vincennes, mistook Iran Air Flight 655 for an Iranian F-14 and shot it down over the Strait of Hormuz. All 290 passengers and aircrew aboard the Airbus A300B2 died, including 65 children or infants.[24] |
Still where there was a Will there was a way.....after 14 monthes Iran and Iraq made peace......
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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On 3 July 1988, USS Vincennes, mistook Iran Air Flight 655 for an Iranian F-14 and shot it down over the Strait of Hormuz. All 290 passengers and aircrew aboard the Airbus A300B2 died, including 65 children or infants.
Still where there was a Will there was a way.....after 14 monthes Iran and Iraq made peace...... |
Eh? More like eight years. There is a school of thought that claims Iran made peace because of the Vincennes incident. The mullahs assumed (and still assume) the shooting down was deliberate and hence a sign that American patience was finally at an end. Accordingly, they cobbled together a peace with Iaq a few weeks later.
Your account demonstrates the utter folly of trying to open the Strait against Iran's will. As I pointed out before, it means AWACS keeping track of every Iranian with a pick-up truck.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Wileys guess is that they will try to open a narrow mine free corridor (not the full strait) along the non-Iranian side to allow the trapped "western" yellow fleet to sail out. Then call it a day.
Who Knows?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I doubt their crews will favour this policy though they might be so fed up... as you say, who knows?
The Americans can make the overall risk low enough to use mercenary crews but, as I also pointed out, they could do this by putting such crews temporarily on any ship going either in or out of the Strait. However, this would require sustained US involvement and Trump is no Reagan.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | However, this would require sustained US involvement and Trump is no Reagan. |
To be fair Wiley has three stars less than Kellogg, so AEL can be fairly sure that Kelloggs plan of storming Kharg is more likely to happen....
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The Phillipines is the first country to impose a 4 day working week, price caps, appeals to stop driving, etc due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
If the war goes on others will follow, Bangledesh, Pakistan, (already a 4 day government week imposed) Thailand India, then there will be the second wave shock in Japan and South Korea.
As the US, Israel and Iran have all started taking out the infrastructure this is probably now going to happen, even if they kiss and make up tommorrow.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Not Japan and South Korea, they can buy their way out of trouble. High priced petro-products are meat and drink to a mature economy and at $109 the market clearly thinks this crisis will be ridden out.
Though not, it is looking more and more, by Donald Trump. He is in dangerously (for the rest of us) deep doo-doo.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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You are quoting the futures market, the on the spot is now selling at $140.00+, folks are thinking that the Strait closure is temporary and Trump will either back off, or the US will take the Strait.
If he doesnt you will start to see the new price at $110- $140, more like $140.00.....
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Wiley, you are falling into the well-known trap (every talking head does it) of thinking you are superior to the sum total of all known information.
| You are quoting the futures market |
True, I was.
| the on the spot is now selling at $140.00+ |
The spot price is relatively unimportant. Panic buying mostly. And short-term speculators relying on people who don't listen to the wisdom of the futures market.
| folks are thinking that the Strait closure is temporary and Trump will either back off, or the US will take the Strait. |
I don't know what folks are thinking. All I know is that, in the combined opinion of the cognoscenti, oil will be priced at $109 a barrel in the foreseeable future.
| If he doesnt you will start to see the new price at $110- $140, more like $140.00..... |
If he doesn't, and since this is the least likely scenario anyway, the new price will be 'more like' $110.
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