Questions Of The Day (Politics)

[Mick Harper]

This is all perfectly true, you can't buck the markets. But misses the point. The Truss/Kwarteng Plan argued that cutting taxes would increase borrowing costs but would be paid for by higher growth. The Plan had been endorsed by the Tory voters and the Rishi Plan, retrench then cut taxes, rejected.

In normal times this might (or might not) have worked. But to embark on it when two other massive dislocations to normal life, COVID and Ukraine-fuelled fuel inflation, had occurred was (it turned out) not very sensible. But again, it might have worked because the market reaction was not in fact particularly severe. Sterling fell a bit, interest rates rose a bit. Big deal. That's what the extra growth was for.

But when the hysteria struck - not the hysteria of the markets but the hysteria of the British media and their running dogs in parts of the Tory Party and all the opposition parties -- then we looked to see what mettle the Truss/Kwarteng/parts of the Tory Party axis was made of.

It was dark blue blancmange.

[Mick Harper]

The emergence of the next Prime Minister is shaping up to be another fine old mess. The 1922 Committee (shouldn't they be running the country, they seem to be central to our lives?) set the bar at a hundred MP's. As opposed to the time-tested fifteen or so. When asked what would happen if nobody reached it -- one would have thought a clear and present danger in the current fractious state of the party -- the Man Who Came Up With The Plan seemed nonplussed at the possibility. "As long as they can unite the party."

But OK, let's assume that hurdle is hurdled. Given that there are 357 people in the electorate, it would take a mild statistical freak for three freaks (aren't they all?) to emerge. They are in order of the bookies odds (always the best guide):

Rishi Sunak who is hated by large sections of the party for knifing Boris in the back, though he didn't.
Penny Mordant about whom everyone agrees they don't know enough to either hate her or not hate her.
Boris Johnson who is not only hated by large sections of the party but might have to resign as PM shortly after becoming one again because of various bodies enquiring into his misdeeds. Thereby returning the governance of the country to the 1922 Committee.

The theory though is that only two will emerge and after the vote, No 2 will withdraw in favour of No. 1 (I am using both phrases in a technical sense only) thus cutting out the Tory party itself from proceedings on the grounds (a) there is no time and (b) they made a right ricket last time. Good luck to them and good luck to us.

[Mick Harper]

Why is everyone going on about whoever it will be will be lacking a mandate, and hence a general election should be called? Last time I looked, people vote for parties at general elections and they gave a mandate to the Conservative Party for five years. What the Conservative Party chooses to do with that mandate is an internal matter for the Conservative Party. So butt out!

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

I'm backing the return of Johnson. Then, when he has to resign because of some scandal or other, we can have the return of Liz Truss. Then when she has to go because of some market movement or other, we'll know exactly what to do. Send for Boris!

It'll be like when Labour and Conservatives used to take turns except with the 1922 Committee pulling the strings. Just like in 1922 in fact, and I'm old enough to remember what good times they were.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

The only people who know Penny Mordaunt's political capabilities are the three hundred and fifty odd Tory MP's. (That's not counting the ones that are so odd they have had the whip withdrawn.) Nineteen of them have come out for her. I'm trying to decide whether this is a good sign or a bad sign.

Though since it would seem that only Rishi'n'Boris will get the Old Hundred, it probably won't matter. However, this will trigger an interesting application of the Prisoner's Dilemma. (This is when you'll get a reduced sentence if you put your partner in the frame, but you'll both get off if neither of you does.) The 1922 scheme is that the one who comes second among MP's will stand down in favour of the first, thus avoiding going to the membership. But

[Wile E. Coyote]

The UK refuses to allow online ballots for Online voting for general elections or local elections as it cannot be fairly adminstered and securely monitored.

There is no way a Tory party, with an average party member aged 72 (i.e. many in their eighties) is going to achieve this untested online election, "we are going to do our best to contact all members", that a sore loser will not have reasonable grounds for legal challenge if the result is any way close.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

2.The Tory Reform Group.
3 The Bow Group
4 The Monday Club
5 No Turning Back
6 One Nation Conservatives
7 Conservative Mainstream

[Mick Harper]

Surely these are the ordinary grouplets that all (as you say, sizeable) Broad Church parties have. Although they might represent 'wings' and they certainly seek to influence policy, this is quite different from being 'a party within a party' of the ERG type i.e. with the broad aim of taking over the party (or at least enforcing their policies).

I think the ERG was as surprised to find themselves in this position as were the hierarchy. But this is because they ended up not as a glorified dining room discussion club or even a wing of the party but as single-issue zealots. This has happened before with the Tories: Tariff Reform of the 1920's and the Corn Laws of the 1840's, but not in modern times. We have all seen what happens when the single-policy is achieved, the ERG itself has fallen into inchoate warring factions.

Still, you produced a list. Most people don't bother but skulk away into the verbiage which is why the bogus list is so valuable for smoking them out. If I have, you may disagree.

[Mick Harper]

Just a quick word about the scale of the problem facing the Sunak Junta (a pretty good piece of patchwork if I'm any judge: left, right, centre, present, former, former former and Suella Braverman). The problems aren't that great. Anyone who watches Al-Jazeera every night will know what really serious problems look like, and they don't look like ours.

Nor do our present ones bear much resemblance to our past biggies. Not a patch on say leaving the EU, or curbing the unions or bringing down inflation. Take that last one for example. When both parties have produced a twenty per cent stagflation, as they did in the nineteen-seventies, it takes years of effort to get the ship of state back on keel. When it's ten per cent and caused by Ukraine, it'll be all over by next year and we'll be wondering what the fuss was all about.

It's the same with this panic over tax-and-spending and market confidence. Nobody turned a hair when we ripped up the fiscal rulebook over Covid, so once the Rishi'n'Jeremy double act stop it rising and we (and the markets) get used to us having a national debt of 85% of GNP as opposed to 80% then we'll all return to a triple-A confidence in the government and it'll be safe to vote Labour in.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Price of gas dropping now at the level of June, not much over when Russia invaded. There is a lot of ignoral on gas and grain, the fact is that Russia in the first few months was convinced that they could stop the war advantageously at any point as the Ukrainians were so useless, so the Russians were quite happy to do deals to get grain to Africa and supply the west with gas through third parties, boosting their coffers. They did not believe that the Ukrainians could ever drive them back. Whoops.

[Mick Harper]

A fascinating vignette on Newsnight nicely illustrated some of the unexpected consequences that can be expected following our part-internally and part-externally induced economic crisis. The Newsnight cameras were in Ulster, home of the cutesy politician, where there are temporarily no politicians on account of Stormont being suspended. This is because the DUP would rather have no government than a Catholic-led government.

Cut to harrassed educational administrator-types explaining that with everything going through the roof and no government to appeal to for extra funds, there is every prospect of having to close schools. Finishing with a union-type (trade not Ulster) explaining that teachers will be going on strike soon on account of everything except their salaries going through the roof. With no government to accede to their demands, there is every prospect of the strike continuing indefinitely.

In footage not shown on the mainland, several people sighed, "Thank God (Protestant, Catholic and Alliance respectively) for that. After Covid, we're quite used to teaching the kiddies at home and with no teachers' salaries to pay and no need to heat the schools, we should be able to balance the books indefinitely."

Then some British figure waddled on to announce that the impasse can only be resolved by having fresh elections in which, he confidently averred, the present Stormont situation will be DUPlicated on account of Ulster people preferring to be righteous than right. At the very end, two men in balaclavas (one green, one blue) were interviewed. "Thank God we only buried the weapons beyond use," they agreed, "what with prices of new gear going through the roof."