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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Shoigu is in partial agreement with you, in that he contends Russia is wining the war, but his belief is they will only acheive final victory by 2025. What the media is not portraying is that the Russians are trying to go forward, they are not trying to defend, hold or freeze the Surovkin line, by occupying tunnels and inflict casualties on the attacker. They are attacking and counter attacking in waves.....It might be the case that they could freeze the line relying on force ratio in favour of defence, but they dont see the need, or more likley they need to show they have decisively won a new victory. This came up on Russia TV, a lone commentator, advised the rest that they should freeze the conflist and negotiate, as that would be a good result, given that they were taking on Ukranians "who are good fighters" and a coalition of western nations, who could outproduce them in terms of weaponry. The Babushka presenter advised him they never would..... "as this means we would have lost"
The point is that Putin's Russia needs to show it has won, by taking in full the five Oblasts or at the very least make some new significant forward progress, as their only gain in the last year, was taken by Wagner.....
The only Question for Wiley since the start, was given that Russia has much more kit and men, so was militarily by far stronger. Can Russia logistically support what they will take?
I really doubt they can keep what they have. Its not that they will run out, they just cant move stuff around, quickly enough to where they need it, without being hit by artillery.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Shoigu is in partial agreement with you, in that he contends Russia is winning the war, but his belief is they will only acheive final victory by 2025. |
This is the opposite to what I am saying.
| What the media is not portraying is that the Russians are trying to go forward, they are not trying to defend, hold or freeze the Surovkin line, by occupying tunnels and inflict casualties on the attacker. |
This is correct. Russia has made gains commensurate to Ukrainian gains only neither the Ukrainians not their western running dogs report it.
| They are attacking and counter attacking in waves..... |
Ever since western armies became gunshy after the First World War they accuse non-gunshy armies of 'attacking in waves'. Except that is how all infantry battles are fought, it's better than dribs and drabs.
| It might be the case that they could freeze the line relying on force ratio in favour of defence, but they don't see the need, or more likely they need to show they have decisively won a new victory. This came up on Russia TV, a lone commentator, advised the rest that they should freeze the conflist and negotiate, as that would be a good result given that they were taking on Ukrainians "who are good fighters" and a coalition of western nations who could outproduce them in terms of weaponry. The Babushka presenter advised him they never would..... "as this means we would have lost" |
Everything in the government-controlled media is one form of kite-flying or another.
| The point is that Putin's Russia needs to show it has won, by taking in full the five Oblasts or at the very least make some new significant forward progress, as their only gain in the last year was taken by Wagner..... |
This is highly unlikely. Their calculation is, I would have thought, that if they can stay in the fight long enough for battle fatigue to affect Ukraine/NATO (very likely) then they'll either get the oblasts in full at the peace negotiations or as much of it that demonstrates Russia has protected her own. Even what they hold whenever the 'temporary' ceasefire is called will probably be good enough.
| The only Question for Wiley since the start was, given that Russia has much more kit and men so was militarily by far stronger, Can Russia logistically support what they will take? |
It doesn't, it isn't and they can (except for the Crimea Canal).
| I really doubt they can keep what they have. It's not that they will run out, they just can't move stuff around quickly enough to where they need it, without being hit by artillery. |
Why do you and everyone else persist with this rose-tinted armchair generalship? They've been doing fine by their own lights, they will either continue to do fine or they'll put more resources in if they can't. If they can't even after throwing in resources they'll do something else.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| The Russians now need to improve their air defence against missiles that will be arriving three times quicker than the Storm Shadows. Yes the Russians will adapt to this, but in my opnion they need to get out of range until they do. |
Looks like Team Biden have read Micks post that the Ukrainian attempt to breach the Surovokin Line has culminated. So Joe has given the Ukranians longer range weapons. The Russians need to move back now. You cant suffer too many helicopter losses, and lose ammunition bases like they have done today. In this war where artillery and reconnaissance are proving key, they now need either to find a way to defend their logistics or get further back.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67135163
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Maybe you are right. I just can't see it. If anything Europe is more than ever enthusiastic to support Ukraine, the EU has already announced more than €70bn (£60bn) of military and civilian assistance for Ukraine, for the next few years. |
The EU is a bunch of bureaucrats spending other people's money. Though I am not questioning the overall stance or the man on the Euro-omnibus questioning it. Slovak omnibuses now apart.
| The fact is Ukraine has convinced many in Europe, if not the US, that Russia poses an existential threat to Europe after a long period of peace. |
Not surprisingly since it is the blunt truth. Though one would have to say 'to the parts of Europe that once formed part of the Soviet Union.'
| Russia is doing nothing to disabuse any European of this by comparing everyone with Nazis, and threatening via talking heads on state television nuclear strikes on capitals, eg Berlin, London, Paris. The latest recruitment ads for Russian soldiers has them discussing how their soldiers will be given free land when they capture Odessa. |
We never believe a word Russia says until it says something truly daft. Then we just lap it up.
| Germany is now leading the way, with massive help. |
Really? I've gained the impression that Germany has been consistently behind the eight-ball.
| There is still a majority in favour of Ukrainian support in the US. |
When answering opinion pollsters... yes.
| Much better artillery and tanks are now arriving from the US. The Russians now need to improve their air defence against missiles that will be arriving three times quicker than the Storm Shadows. Yes the Russians will adapt to this, but in my opnion they need to get out of range until they do. |
If that's what it takes, that's what they will do. But thus far nothing has got them out of their bunkers other than Ukrainians with bayonets. 'Twas ever thus.
| I don't say Russia will definitely retreat, it's just retreat is the sensible policy to avoid a worse defeat, as it was when they retreated from Kherson. |
Exactly so... and where has that got Ukraine apart from a flooded area of Ukraine and the Russians sitting in a new line of bunkers?
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Let's take a look.
https://www.statista.com/chart/28489/ukrainian-military-humanitarian-and-financial-aid-donors/
More headlines today about inernational support cracking for Ukraine, but is this the case?
The Germans are now clearly leading the way in a very signifcant European-wide effort. Things have moved on, that is why Zelensky (probably unwisely as it upset Poland) proposed that Germany be made a permanent member of the UN Security Council, as well as India, Japan, African union and Pacific areas.
Still it shows that Ukraine whilst making mistakes are actually trying to get important allies on board.
Putin is now not leaving Russia. Who is really winning the battle for international support?
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: |
Exactly so... and where has that got Ukraine apart from a flooded area of Ukraine and the Russians sitting in a new line of bunkers? |
The Ukrainians are now across the Dnieper river and have created a small bridgehead, err....so they say. I have zero idea whether the idea is to advance in that area, or this is simply to keep the Russians tied down whilst the Ukrainians destroy the Russian logistics situated further back, but still now in range. I would guess the latter.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| More headlines today about inernational support cracking for Ukraine, but is this the case? The Germans are now clearly leading the way in a very signifcant European-wide effort. Things have moved on, . |
Nothing has changed. The interests of the powers don't change in a year or two. Germany has to balance her position as a economic partner of Russia with her role as 'spokesman for Europe'. She was luke warm to start with, she is luke warm now, she will (I would think) sponsor a luke warm peace.
| that is why Zelensky (probably unwisely as it upset Poland) proposed that Germany be made a permanent member of the UN Security Council, as well as India, Japan, African union and Pacific areas. Still it shows that Ukraine whilst making mistakes are actually trying to get important allies on board. |
Nothing has changed. Ukraine is casting round for help wherever it is to be had, after being invaded.
| Putin is now not leaving Russia. Who is really winning the battle for international support? |
Nothing has changed. The usual suspects have lined up with Russia, the usual suspects have lined up with Ukraine. The rest are content to fish in troubled waters.
| The Ukrainians are now across the Dnieper river and have created a small bridgehead, err....so they say. I have zero idea whether the idea is to advance in that area, or this is simply to keep the Russians tied down whilst the Ukrainians destroy the Russian logistics, situated further back but still now in range. I would guess the latter. |
Nothing has changed. The Russians advanced when they had the element of surprise, they have retreated now they haven't. The Dnieper is and always will be Ukrainian, there is no prospect of a Ukrainian advance into Crimea. The truth is always boring.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Well, perhaps not always. There have been two decisive events in the Ukraine War so far:
1. Ukraine did not collapse in the first few months. Russia's war aims were thereby defeated.
2. Ukraine's offensive has failed in the last few months. Russia can never be defeated.
The rest is just waiting for the combatants to recognise this.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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A rather good article on why most Russians have never had it so good. (Because they never had it in the first place)
For public repentance after the end of the war, we will have to wait until these children grow up and have their own children, so that these (not yet born) children can be told that their grandfathers committed undignified acts. For some reason, it’s easier to hear about grandfathers than fathers. Internal, rather than external, repentance in Germany began in the 1970s – just when the children of the children of the Nazis grew up.
Thus, by the end of the 2040s, it will be possible to talk to the people about the losses that Russian society actually suffered from the current war. At least some of them will really listen. In addition, by that time teachers whose careers began under Brezhnev will finally stop teaching.
In the meantime, the people are experiencing perhaps the best period in their lives. Sure, some of them periodically come back from the war in zinc coffins. On the other hand, the whole street will be out for the funeral – how is that for reviving traditional values. |
https://russiapost.info/regions/majority
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: |
Nothing has changed. The Russians advanced when they had the element of surprise, they have retreated now they haven't. The Dnieper is and always will be Ukrainian, there is no prospect of a Ukrainian advance into Crimea. The truth is always boring. |
Disagree. Historically boundary changes have ben the norm, across Europe. That is the problem. Folks are in continual disagreement about what is whose bit of sacred land, bit of empire etc. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=stY2dlH37Uw
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The current annexations are just part of a longer trend.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Disagree. Historically boundary changes have ben the norm, across Europe. That is the problem. Folks are in continual disagreement about what is whose bit of sacred land, bit of empire etc. |
I don't agree boundary changes have been the norm, nor that people are in constant disagreement about them,. You'll have to say what this longer trend of annexation is all about. But this is not what I'm saying anyway.. The Dnieper will remain in Ukrainian hands during this war and won't be given up at the peace table. Crimea will remain in Russian hands during this war and won't be given up at the peace table. The only dispute will concern (a) the eastern territory that was occupied by Russia before the war and (b) the Azov coastline occupied by the Russians during the war.
The big problem is that the Ukrainians are nowhere near ready to recognise this.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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I honestly don't know what will happen. Crimea was already an independent autonomous oblast within Ukraine before 2014, my suspicion is that Ukraine would be very amenable to allow for the self determination of the Crimean population in exchange for, say, them being allowed NATO membership.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I doubt that anybody -- even Ukrainians and Russians -- honestly knows what they will and will not accept when the crunch comes. What you propose is ... um ... possible. Though the word 'allow' is not one that either side will likely favour. 'Put up with because of force majeure' is, I think, a better formula.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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I personally think the Biden admistration is playing a difficult hand quite well on Ukraine but I do wonder if the chaotic Afghanistan withrawal, Biden's age and the political domestic divisions are giving encouragement to those who want to stir things up. Hamas has now launched a "war on Israel". This sounds like alarmist nonsense, but contra orthodoxy these organisations do weigh up how Israel will respond, and the size of this current Hamas operation and language implies that this will result in war.
| “We warned the enemy not to continue their aggression against the al-Aqsa mosque … The age of the enemy’s aggression without a response is over. I call on Palestinians everywhere in the West Bank and within the Green Line [Israeli territory] to launch an attack without restraint. Go to all the streets. I call on Muslims everywhere to launch an attack,” | |
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