| View previous topic :: View next topic |
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
 |
|
The genius to Wiley is that the Chinese have used a Russian anti western momentum against the Russians for their own ends. I do favour this approach in international relatons. It is much more effective than opposing things. You encourage your rival's chaotic force and....then use it against them.
It is the Russian doing the fighting against the West.
The Russians are losing huge numbers of soldiers, tanks, and other weaponry.
The Russians are diplomatically isolated. Except for North Korea, Iran, Syria, that is.
Still, China will be there to help Russia, not with weapons of course, but state visits and encouragement that they are changing the world together. China will help try to block unfair world condemnation, and is of course willing to negotiate trade deals. (that benefit China)
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
|
Rule 100. You should not oppose Wiley's attempt to intergrate AE with Daoist philosophy, you should skilfully encourage it and then deftly move out the way, leaving him to hurtle over the edge, and fall dramatically into the canyon.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
Here is a link to Shoigu's masterplan for new Siberian cities cunningly agreed just before the invasion of Ukraine. He thoughtfully is also proposing a new Russian Orthodox Military Cathedral and Museum dedicated to the armed forces in Moscow's Patriot Park.
https://rb.gy/yougo
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
| We must analyse the vexed question of tanks-for-Ukraine. First of all: is it important? Maybe, maybe not. |
| Wile E. Coyote wrote: |
Don't know to be honest, but I suspect that if Ukraine wants to actually go forward then the Strykers, they are eight-wheeled armored transports for infantry that go up to 60 miles per hour, could actually be better than any tanks. So less heavy fire power, but they are quieter, quicker and use less fuel. The Ukrainians surely have to think and fight "agile", not with a post-soviet style tank and trench mindset.
|
Damn. Now they are through the first Surovikin line, they are realising that they need more Strykers and Marders. The problem is pyschology. Given the chance of a Leopard or a Marder, folks will always go for the extra fire power of the Leopard, as it looks the part and gives confdence to the infantry, over the puny looking Marder.
It's a case of Tony the Tiger or Wile. E. Coyote. Coyote is so underrated, it's criminal.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
Every army from the birth of warfare has suffered from the following
1. All we need for a breakthrough is some new kit
2. It'll be all over by Christmas.
Every army from the birth of warfare could benefit from the advice of M J Clausewitz
1. There will never be a breakthrough in Ukraine
2. Christmas will arrive when one side or the other recognises this.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
In 1994, after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Armenians and Azerbaijanis clashed.
| More than one million people flee their homes during the fighting. The ethnic Azeri population - about 25% of the total before the war - leaves Nagorno-Karabakh and Armenia while ethnic Armenians flee the rest of Azerbaijan. |
The population of Nagorno-Karabakh was left as Armenian.
After the current fighting, and failiure of the Russian peace keeping mission, Nagorno-Karabakh is in the hands of Azerbaijan. The Armenian population will flee.
These ancient Soviet inspired boundaries (imperial "divide and soviet rule") with special arrangements, for seperatist enclaves, are now becoming time limited affairs, as Russia cannot now enforce their protection.
There is little Armenia can now do if Azerbaijan decides to take more territory.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
| These ancient Soviet inspired boundaries (imperial "divide and soviet rule) |
I wish it had been for such a lofty purpose. Both the Donetsk enclave in Ukraine and the Nagorno-Karabakh enclave in Azerbaijan were done in fits of Politburo squabbling. There was no doubt of Soviet (or for that matter Great Russian) control at the time.
| There is little Armenia can now do if Azerbaijan decides to take more territory. |
Just as there was little Azerbaijan could do when Armenia decided to take more territory in the 1990's when they were top dog. I expect the Armenians will be back when they are local top dogs again. It is a matter of abiding mystery why countries prefer war and instability between wars rather than let a few people out in the boonies live in the country of their choice.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
Armenia has realised that Russian cannot protect it. Azerbaijan has the full support of Turkey. Turkish combat drones and other military equipment has helped Baku take back this area.
| Turkey Ambassador wrote: | | As a result of the legitimate and justified concerns it has repeatedly expressed regarding the situation on the ground in the nearly three years since the end of the Second Karabakh War, Azerbaijan has had to take the measures it deems necessary on its own sovereign territory." |
Armenia is powerless now it has no backer. These are not agreed ceasefires, they are simple humiliating surrenders. Armenia is going to have to appeal to the west and the UN if Azerbaijan escalates.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
| The Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO)[note 2] is an intergovernmental military alliance in Eurasia consisting of six post-Soviet states: Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan, formed in 2002. The Collective Security Treaty has its origins in the Soviet Armed Forces, which was replaced in 1992 by the United Armed Forces of the Commonwealth of Independent States, and was then itself replaced by the successor armed forces of the respective independent states. |
The CSTO is collapsing.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
| Azerbaijan has the full support of Turkey. |
It does indeed but it has all the macht it needs inhouse. Though it might need Turkish help to retain its own enclave on the other side of Armenia.
| Armenia is going to have to appeal to the west and the UN if Azerbaijan escalates. |
Remind me what dog the west has in this fight? Remind me what dog the UN has in this fight? And when it last walked the dog?
Everything Russian is always collapsing. I wouldn't bank on it actually collapsing if I were you.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
I agree that the Russians are collapsing and then adapting to the new reality.
The Azerbaijanis just killed members of the Russian peace keeping corp including one captain, one Lt colonel, two colonels.....and the Russians have adapted to this by just accepting an Azerbaijani apology, and then helping the Azerbaijanis administer a mass Armenian separatist surrender of weaponry.
As for the various other exclaves the next demand will be to connect them all to Azerbaijan........Azerbaijan most probably are going to just set up safe corridors and border posts along these "corridors" on Armenian territiory, I doubt the Armenians or anybody else can do anything about this.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
| As for the various other exclaves the next demand will be to connect them all to Azerbaijan |
This is not without wider strategic implications. If you recall our maunderings over the railway from North Korea to Russia sealing China off from the Pacific, so a link-up between Azerbaijan and Turkey cuts off the CSTO from Iran. I think that's right but Borry will correct me if I'm wrong.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
In practical terms it doesn't make a difference as Armenia has now to all intents and purposes left the CSTO arguing it does not work for them due to Russian involvement in Ukraine.
In January, Armenia refused to host a CSTO exercise and on March 10 it renounced its right to take part in the bloc's leadership rotation. They have since sought help from Europe and America.
The Armenians have complained that the CSTO did not protect them in 2020, and it hasn't protected there in 2023. Nagorno-Karabakh is now lost. Whilst the Russians are now saying Nagorno-Karabakh was always the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan!
Even if the current Armenian President is ousted by a more pro-Russian opposition that hopes to revive its position as a fully participating CSTO member, Russia is simply unable to protect Armenian interests.
The CSTO is broken. A much better model for Armenia in hindsight would have been to become non aligned as they needed The Grey Wolf, as well as The Bear.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
| Whilst the Russians are now saying Nagorno-Karabakh was always the sovereign territory of Azerbaijan! |
Poor old Russia. They get it in the neck whether they recognise the lawful boundaries of a country or whether they don't.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
I think Armenia has worked out that Russia seems to support De Facto over De Jure borders when the issue is of Russian national interest, but one of De Jure over De Facto when it was of primarily Armenian national interest.
It's a tough lesson, and one that will break a military defence alliance.
Other members of CSTO need to take note.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
The Library Index 
FAQ 
Search
Register
Profile 
Log in to check your private messages 
Log in 
