Politics, The Final Frontier (Politics)

[Mick Harper]

Niger continues to fascinate. Two nuggets gleaned from David Aaronovitch's excellent weekly Briefing Room. The first is to hear that Niger has a long record as a stable multi-party democracy. It is widely regarded as the poorest country on earth. We need to export a lot more of that.

The other, even odder, factoid is that it is a relatively small nation, half inside the Sahara desert and half that might as well be such is the fickleness of rainfall. It has no redeeming features whatsoever apart from some uranium and gold mines. Yet it is slated to have a population that will be approaching ours in the not too distant future. What do they all do? Could we support fifty million people on a bit of mining and subsistence agriculture? Even in poverty. Perhaps we should learn their secret.

[Mick Harper]

They've just held primary elections in economically-ravaged Argentina to select who can run in the real thing come November. To everyone's surprise, a complete unknown proposing all kinds of weird and wonderful things emerged on top with thirty per cent. The watching world couldn't make head nor tail of him but since he definitely wasn't a socialist they have labelled him the 'the ultra right-wing candidate'. (The ordinary right got 29%, the left got 28%.)

I've looked at his policies and have labelled him 'the Applied Epistemological candidate'.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

I crafted my words carefully to suggest England/Niger 50 mil/50 mil. Niger women are continuing to have seven children each, because of or despite local conditions, so it won't take thirty years. Nigeria has a current population of 213 million and will soon overtake western Europe. It quickly adds up. I agree this will all settle down eventually to near-replacement rate levels (or below if Europe and China are anything to go by) but the question is... when?

Presently the general model is to have basic but western medical services available so the seven kids all survive, as opposed to the traditional model of having seven to ensure two survive. This will certainly mean all seven will remain in poverty but live long and procreating lives. The women of Niger -- or maybe the government of Niger -- would get the message quickly enough if it wasn't for the fact that the present general model is to have food aid on tap but everyone harassed enough not to be able to settle down to grow or buy their own. And even if they can there is nothing to stop them exporting surplus people via migration.

If I were in their position I'd have seven to be on the safe side.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Population stats are influenced by births, deaths and...... migration.

Niger "manages" its migration policy on the principle of laissez-faire which means, given the relative wealth of other African and European nations, they will never catch us up. It ain't gioing to happen.

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]

We must wish BRICS well. The reason the Western model has grown so flabby, even noxious, is that for forty years it had only ineffectual competition from COMECON and then thirty years of no competition at all.

Fun Prospect: When the Ukraine War is wrapped up we should consider joining BRICS.

[Boreades]

[Mick Harper]

Cyril needed a non-embargoed oil state to keep the coffers topped up now that too many people are complaining about the lack of ANC-supplied electricity. Of course South Africa is itself the odd-man-out in a China/Russia/Brazil/India line up of behemoths so it should come as no surprise that the UAE has been popped in beside Saudi Arabia. The UAE has become the political fixer for unpopular wars -- it is currently the power behind the insurgent RSF in Sudan.

Speaking as Groucho (not Harpo) I wouldn't myself welcome a failed state like Ethiopia into any club. Except possibly as an outlier in a package of maybe-failing ones like Argentina, Egypt and Iran.

[Mick Harper]

The Japanese are releasing treated Fukushima radiated water back into the Pacific. They don't particularly want to but they are running out of space and storing it on land is not just expensive, it's bleedin' hazardous. They got the okay from the IAEA that everything was hunky-dory though, to be perfectly honest, they could have dumped it untreated into the sea straight after the disaster without doing a lot of damage. The one thing we have learned from numerous spillages is that the ocean is par excellence as a cleansing agent.

Nevertheless the neighbours are all up in arms. They're refusing to eat Japanese fish. We import sushi so should we join in? Are we going to heed the so-called experts who say Fukushima run-off is now safer than tapwater or should we listen to complete twats?

[Mick Harper]

Denmark is considering legislation to stop the burning of religious books. They mean the Koran of course, nobody else can be bothered. True, every Dane and his dog (no, I'm not going to fall for the obvious joke, I like Danish women) is outraged at this ridiculous shackling of their human rights, but accept it as inevitable. Even so they shouldn't have to. I'm all in favour of liberal democracies passing simple enabling laws that say, "Look, if you do something daft we'll be down on you like a ton of bricks." I'm unusual in trusting liberal governments not to abuse the power. That is the point of living in liberal democracies. Or do we?

[Mick Harper]

I preen myself in pointing out at the time that the decision not to take military action against Assad in Syria ten years ago was the moment Britain gave up on being a Great Power. I differ however with the talking heads bemoaning it on Newsnight. Not necessarily as to the wisdom of taking military action, that can be argued either way, but on the wisdom of giving up as a Great Power. Nobody in high places, ten years later, seems even to have noticed we have done so.

It is entirely fitting that this momentous step -- after nigh on a thousand years of being a Great Power -- was taken because of a cock-up in negotiations between two parties in the House of Commons.

[Mick Harper]

I am always going on about democracy not being the best from of government, only a form of government. Intrinsically neither better nor worse than any other. These views were given a striking boost in the recent Singapore presidential elections. The same party has ruled the country since its independence (from Malaysia by the way, not us) but recently has been mired in scandal and corruption and is excoriated by every decent Singaporean and his dog. Not that dogs would be allowed in Singapore from what I hear. What was the result of the election? The ruling party got 70%.

[Mick Harper]

Democracy, Guatemala-style

The ruling junta had presidential elections coming up which had to have a semblance of legality because the Americans were watching. So they put forward someone with good name recognition -- the daughter of a previous president -- and began the time-honoured process of arresting any opposition candidate that might win and/or having them ruled out by the Electoral Commission (aka the Junta) for breaking some regulation or other. To satisfy the Americans a rag-bag of no-hopers were allowed to run against their gal. During the campaign one of them went from 2% to winning the damned thing. Unfortunately his term in office does not begin until January next year and it turns out he broke some regulation or other.

"He will have to be disqualified," said the Electoral Commission.
"Whatever," said the Americans.

[Mick Harper]

The Kurds are not turning out to be the bastions of liberal democracy everyone was hoping they would be. After being armed and equipped by the Americans in the good old days of fighting ISIS, the Kurds managed to carve out (a) a mini-state in the eastern half of Syria which the Assad regime has left well alone and (b) a mini-state in the northern half of Iraq which the Baghdad regime(s) have left well alone. There is every prospect that one day soon the Kurds will lose their tag of "the largest ethnic group in the world without a state to call its own".

It was thought the chief stumbling blocks to this ambition were (a) Turkey and (b) Iran which is plenty to be going on with, but the Kurds have decided to widen their circle of enemies. They have been behaving abominably to local Arabs in (a) majority-Arab Syrian Kurdistan and (b) mixed Kurdish/Arab Kirkuk in Iraqi Kurdistan. Way to go, Kurds!