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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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This Israeli brouhaha is really stirring things up. When there is talk of 'even Joe Biden is taking an interest' you know it's important. They don't wake him up if it isn't. It isn't. Anyone who thinks Israel is not going to go right on doing what it has been doing all its life is seriously deluding themselves.
Which includes the three Newsnight reporters and the three talking heads they selected (out of four) who all went down 'the democracy in danger' route. Somewhat forgetting that democracy is what's driving the whole thing. Anyone who thinks 'decent' Israelis are somehow getting overborne by ultra right-wing expansionary fundamentalists is seriously deluded. The Knesset voted 64-0 for ultra right-wing expansionism. Get out of that one, Supreme Court!
My own prediction about how things would go when it all kicked off can be found here https://medium.com/@mickxharper/advance-or-retreat-that-is-always-the-question-8227891f3999. It may be seriously deluded.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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A Russian TV pundit explained that the SMO is failing because the Ukranian soldiers were formerly trained by the Russian military. We taught them everything, now they are better fighters and have betrayed us by switching sides to the hated west, was his logic.
The solution was to defeat them (not easy given they are the better fighters) and talk sense into them (not easy given the shelling of Ukrainian civilian areas, which is alienating them still further).
Still, it's a simple and obvious explanation of why the Empire is failing, compare: The Varian Disaster/ The Battle of the Teutoburg Forest.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I do not accept the reality of the Battle of the Teutoberg Forest (such a conveniently-named place for destinies to be decided, I always think) but the more important question is:
| What now, now that the Ukrainian high tide has been reached? | |
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Well according to the US, the Ukrainians have only just committed to their main thrust yesterday so, if true, maybe they did not even make it the first line of the Surovkin defences before giving up?
I would give it three weeks.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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OK, what's your recommendations for three weeks time? This is not like the Western Front
| 'We've got more men so, as long as we keep fighting, we'll have fifty thousand men standing and they won't have any' (said to have been said by Field Marshall Hague (I've just been re-watching Oh What a Lovely War). |
The Russians will always be able to stay in the fight longer than the Ukrainians so it's incumbent on the Ukrainians to change 'fighting' into something else. And from what I've seen, fighting is the only thing Ukrainians are good at.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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If it is the main thrust and they are now committing the trained troops, the fresh new batallions, then they presumably will have to gain some territory over the coming weeks, for that they need a breakthrough (err) somewhere. If not it looks like a frozen front line to Wiley, and another wet season.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Shoigu wrote: | | In July, enemy losses amounted to 20,824 military personnel and 2,227 units of various weapons. Including 10 Leopard tanks, 11 Bradley IFVs, 40 M777 artillery systems and 50 self-propelled systems from the UK, USA, Germany, France and Poland, |
These are extraordinary numbers, it does make you think about inflation in battlefield numbers that might have been passed down through the ages via Generals that wanted to report success. Still we don't know, and you would expect high losses when trying a major advance.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Wiley, you are the victim of that famous AE bugbear, the bogus list. Tanks, IFV's, artillery systems and self-propelled systems are all much the same thing so why don't we change the list to
111 armoured vehicles
2,116 small arms |
That goes missing after a boisterous night out at Aldershot.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Lula the Brazllian president, no, Wiles, not the character in Wild at Heart ("Baby, you'd better get me back to that hotel. You got me hotter than Georgia asphalt"), is upsetting the west by proposing his peace plan between Ukraine and Russia.
Rather than complaining about this, the West should acknowledge it's very good news that Brazil still remains friends with Russia, both under their Chinese Overlords, all as part of BRICS. Lula, to his credit, simply spotted the reality day one and has been to China unlike Bolsonaro who, prior to the previous election, had sought popularity by complaining that China was buying Brazil up (it is), and then took an age before eventually visting Xi and bending his knee. Former impeached president (well done for breaking the glass ceiling as a woman!) Brazillian Dilma Rousseff has now been inaugurated as new president of the Shanghai BRICS bank. The west doesn't need an off ramp for Putin, they just need to let the Chinese get on with things. If that involves the Chinese peace plan being presented as Brazilian, so be it.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Victoria Derbyshire, Newsnight: What should happen next in Niger?
Beartiz de Leon Cobo, Conflict Advisor, RUSI: There must be a mediation attempt.
Victoria: Between the junta and the ousted president?
Beatriz: Between the junta and the international community.
Victoria: But the junta cannot be seen to benefit from their actions, can they?
Beatriz: Absolutely not.
While we contemplated how mediation works when one side cannot get anything from it, our doughty duo resumed
Victoria: Why has democracy so rapidly failed all across the Sahel.
Beatriz: We must strengthen democracy.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | And from what I've seen, fighting is the only thing Ukrainians are good at. |
Unfortunately, they are also "good" at dying. And at a rate that favours the Russians. The KIA ratios are horrific. The Russians are quite content to remember how to operate wars of brutal attrition.
Our MSM (and Boris Johnson) keep trotting out the "We Are Winning" message. The "proof" is that the Russians have failed to make any major breakthroughs. This is delusional thinking, and plays into the Russians' hands. They are quite content to remember how they won the last "Special Operation" in Ukraine (1940-45), and work the same strategy.
The “western” side in the previous conflict hoped that superior technology and shock-and-awe tactics would give them a quick win. The “eastern” side learned how to cope with (and then excel at) a long war of brutal attrition. While the “western” side exhausted its supplies of weapons and people that could hold a gun, then hoped for a stalemate-truce that never came.
Friend of mine was in Scotland around the time Humza Yousaf hosted a reception for some Ukraine refugees. Humza looked confused that only Ukraine women turned up and asked "where are all the men?" Cue embarrassed laughter from the women. But it's a good measure of how clueless our "leaders" are about the reality of the situation in Ukraine.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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| Mick Harper wrote: | Victoria Derbyshire, Newsnight: What should happen next in Niger?
Beartiz de Leon Cobo, Conflict Advisor, RUSI: There must be a mediation attempt.
Victoria: Between the junta and the ousted president?
Beatriz: Between the junta and the international community.
Victoria: But the junta cannot be seen to benefit from their actions, can they?
Beatriz: Absolutely not. |
We insist on calling it a Junta. Some in Africa say it is just getting rid of the French overlords and the pro-French puppets. The French are having a hissy fit because Niger said it won't send France anymore uranium and gold. Niger is a major source of uranium for France, Not as much as Kazakhstan, but we can expect the Euros are learning the lesson of depending on raw materials from parts of the world closer to Russia and China. Then getting twitchy when the other sources don't meekly agree to French companies running the operation and exporting all the proceeds to France.
Some signs of the times, and how African countries view the situation. They are generally pissed-off with the old European colonial overlords complaining that the African countries are getting better deals elsewhere.
Macron goes to Congo, and gets a smackdown
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aiY797e40ZY
A German goes to Namibia, tries complaining about China, and gets a smackdown.
(China has signed a big deal to mine Namibian uranium in exchange for infrastructure)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QRi12ldhos
BBC reporter schooled about Tony Blair and "illegal wars", and gets a smackdown.
https://nakedemperor.substack.com/p/south-africas-anc-secretary-general
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EP9l-aPK4P0
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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And from what I've seen, fighting is the only thing Ukrainians are good at.
Unfortunately, they are also "good" at dying. And at a rate that favours the Russians. The KIA ratios are horrific. The Russians are quite content to remember how to operate wars of brutal attrition. [etc] |
I keep pointing out all these things to the rah-rahs on medium.com. Ukraine cannot achieve its maximalist war aims so should be constantly on the lookout for the best moment to make peace. That point will never arrive so long as NATO is content to fight a cheap(ish) war against Russia by proxy and Ukrainians are prepared to die for real.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| The French are having a hissy fit because Niger said it won't send France anymore uranium and gold. |
If only France (and the USA) would adopt such a mercantilist approach à la the Chinese, we might get somewhere. As might Niger. Instead both have applied power-politics to the Sahel.
| Niger is a major source of uranium for France, Not as much as Kazakhstan, but we can expect the Euros are learning the lesson of depending on raw materials from parts of the world closer to Russia and China. Then getting twitchy when the other sources don't meekly agree to French companies running the operation and exporting all the proceeds to France. |
Germany has just issued a statement that it 'supports' ECOWAS in its desire to re-impose the ancien regime. France (or anyone else) never 'needs' anything from Niger (or anything else specific to a particular country). For example, only 25% of French uranium ever came from Niger, they've got a two-year stockpile and there are literally billions of other countries dying to sell them the stuff. This 'we need their...' argument has been advanced by Great Powers ever since Rome said they needed Sabine women.
PS I exempt the Europeans when it comes to Russian energy supplies. Sanctions meant the Europeans were plunged into crisis and the Russians had sky high energy prices. Clever of the Russians to impose them.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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Good news for Niger.
European Union countries have started laying the groundwork to impose the first sanctions on members of the junta that seized power in Niger last month, European sources told Reuters on Wednesday...
The EU, one of the biggest providers of aid to Niger, said already last month it was suspending security cooperation and financial support that had been set at 503 million euros ($552 million) in 2021-24 to help improve governance and education. |
https://www.reuters.com/world/eu-starts-preparing-sanctions-against-niger-sources-2023-08-09/
You may wonder what kind of "governance and education" the EU believes Niger should be getting,
Sadly, however, this will be another EU own-goal, as it just make it easier for Niger to get "governance and education" from China and Russia instead.
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