| View previous topic :: View next topic |
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
 |
|
Nations are preparing for Trump to leave. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, have now signed a pact officially named the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, it contains a collective defense clause, an armed attack against one member state will be considered an attack against all.
So at first sight its a defensive alliance of the sunni muslims. They feel threatened. They know that the US is not an ally to be counted on anymore.
The Guardians take:
| Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey have signed a mutual defence agreement, placing three of the Muslim world’s most influential states into a Nato-style pact, as Riyadh confronts attacks from Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. |
Why do they mention the Houthis.....?
| The three Sunni Muslim-led countries are concerned by increasing regional jeopardy after the US-Israeli war on the Shia government in Iran, with Donald Trump unable to contain ?the conflict. |
They are building a new defensive Sunni security architecture for the whole region. Or are they?
| Riyadh has already developed a 10-nation naval coalition that is supposed to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The Houthis say they are firing only on Saudi-linked shipping, and there is no immediate sign that the naval coalition is deterring the Houthis. |
| Yemeni sources said recently they believed Saudi Arabia was preparing for a major military offensive against the Houthis by sea and possibly by land in central Yemen, in a move to break their chokehold on Saudi oil exports through the southern Red Sea. |
So less like a purely defensive agreement, but preperation for the Saudis and others to take back the vital Bab el-Mandeb strait.
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
Iran has strayed into, for it, a hopeless impasse. They have left the next step up to America -- 'to behave correctly' in President Masoud Pezeshkian's words.
Now, some might suppose this is giving the IRGC carte blanche since America can never behave correctly in their eyes. But this 'ultimatum' is coming from a dove not a hawk. Someone who is seeking the famous off-ramp, not folks intent on pot-boiling the Gulf to perdition.
America needs do nothing. Just wait and see how the Iranian/ Omani Agreement plays out and it can start letting letting Iranian ships through the cordon (plus all the other goodies promised Iran for good behaviour) accordingly, as other people's ships go in and out of the Strait.
Since Iran is desperate this happens and America isn't, everything is in favour of the Great Satan. Whether he, i.e. Donald Trump, and his opposite number, the IRGC, allow this gradual return to peace and prosperity remains to be seen.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
| Wiley wrote: | | Nations are preparing for Trump to leave. Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan, have now signed a pact officially named the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement, it contains a collective defense clause, an armed attack against one member state will be considered an attack against all. |
They were comparing it to NATO. Especially that last sentence. Leaving aside that, while NATO does have such a clause, it's inoperable since NATO also has a unanimity clause, so anyone who doesn't feel like joining in will refuse to pass the decision. We'll see what happens when, say, India and Pakistan go at it again.
| So at first sight its a defensive alliance of the sunni muslims. |
That occurred to me too but was carefully ignored by the commentators. Even though the same commentators went on to name possible adversaries -- Iran, Iraq, Houthis, Hezbollah -- who are all Shia.
| They feel threatened. They know that the US is not an ally to be counted on anymore. |
If I was them, I'd add the US as a possible adversary.
| The Guardians take: Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey have signed a mutual defence agreement, placing three of the Muslim world’s most influential states into a Nato-style pact, as Riyadh confronts attacks from Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen. |
That's the sort of thing I was referring to.
Why do they mention the Houthis.....?
The three Sunni Muslim-led countries are concerned by increasing regional jeopardy after the US-Israeli war on the Shia government in Iran, with Donald Trump unable to contain the conflict. |
So the Guardian mentioned the religious dimension? Interesting.
They are building a new defensive Sunni security architecture for the whole region. Or are they?
Riyadh has already developed a 10-nation naval coalition that is supposed to protect commercial shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandeb strait. |
Good luck with that. It takes more than ten navies to stop a Houthi with a pick-up truck and a missile in the back.
| The Houthis say they are firing only on Saudi-linked shipping, and there is no immediate sign that the naval coalition is deterring the Houthis. |
They just fired on an Indian ship. Nobody said whether it was transporting Saudi goods.
| Yemeni sources said recently they believed Saudi Arabia was preparing for a major military offensive against the Houthis by sea and possibly by land in central Yemen, in a move to break their chokehold on Saudi oil exports through the southern Red Sea. |
The Saudis started it by bombing Sana'a airport. The Houthis had done nothing up to that point.
| So less like a purely defensive agreement, but preperation for the Saudis and others to take back the vital Bab el-Mandeb strait. |
I don't accept this at all. There are too many Big Wheels using the Bab el-Mandeb strait for anyone to 'take it back'.
These three medium-sized wheels suddenly find themselves (unusually) with no beefs amongst themselves so are going in for a bit of window-dressing they hope will get them into various peace conferences that are on the horizon. The Pact will be a total dead-letter for anything more ambitious. A bit like NATO really.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
P.S. Pakistan has nuclear weapons. Nobody knows exactly how they acquired them but if they're in a coalition with Saudi Arabia, what's to stop them passing the technology to the Saudis on the q.t.? After all, Saudi Arabia is as rich as Croesus and Pakistan hasn't got two pennies to rub together. It's a marriage made in Sunni heaven.
Of course Israel doesn't want the Saudis having nukes but what do they count for nowadays? Not to mention Israel and Saudi Arabia being de facto allies since 1948. America on the other hand might not be entirely averse to Iran believing the Saudis have got the odd nuke stashed away somewhere. Or know someone who has.
As for Turkey... no, I'm not going there. A nuclear-armed Erdogan doesn't bear thinking about.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
The Library Index 
FAQ 
Search
Register
Profile 
Log in to check your private messages 
Log in 
