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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Starmer chose an unfortunate moment to carry out his last overseas duty, a visit to Kyiv to trumpet something or other we'd done for them. Unfortunate because it was the day Zelensky sacked his Defence Minister, a young and popular geek who has superintended the fabulously successful switch to virtually all-drone warfare.
This had to be done, according to Zelensky addressing the people, because the Minister and the Chief of General Staff couldn't get on. (Apparently they refuse to be in the same room together!) One or other of them had to go.
There were demonstrations in the street because everyone knew the reason why it was the general, not the minister, who got the presidential nod. One of them knew where all the corruption bodies were buried and was knee-deep in it himself, one of them had clean hands.
PS The new minister of defence is the old head of the security services, so that's all right then.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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This is in part an argument about the war that should be fought.
Ukraine is making progress by its use of drones. (geek warfare).
However if Russia launched a combined massed attack, then the cautious gnarled old general, who favours less fancy stuff, and more artillery shells, and grunts, as his first priority might be proved right?
After all drones might by killing 80% of the casualties but that is because the infiltration is taking place one or two a time. Why are the Ivans coming one or two, because the artillery stops them coming over behind tank columns.....
Drones are great at stopping small scale infiltration. and trucks......but there are limits....
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I would not wish to argue the technicalities, only the reasoning for Zelensky's decision.
He only appointed the Defence Minister six months ago--possibly for technical reasons, possibly to head off popular restiveness, possibly because of increasing opposition in the Ukraine parliament--but it was a surprise choice at the time, and one in which Zelensky had put a fair degree of his own authority on the line.
The general, on the other hand, is something of a Soviet-era warhorse. A hero of the 'Defence of Kyiv' in the early days, to be sure, but not otherwise well-thought of in military circles (as I understand it). Though I suppose it may be 'a military thing' in the sense that the Ukrainian high command are not onside with 'the new ways' and Zelensky fears some kind of coup.
But this seems unlikely, given his national and international standing. No, I think corruption is at the heart of it. Zelensky is on thin ice with pretty much all his closest associates -- up to and including his wife -- more or less bang-to-rights. Maybe the whole thing was to manoeuvre the Security Bod into (or out of) office.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The Russian blogger, and former Putin Loyalist Ilya Remeslo is having a bad year, after a critical post aganst Vladdy in March, Ilya was taken off for pyschiatric treatment for a few weeks. After recovery and release he has now been arrested and faces trial as it is alleged he has produced further critical posts of Vladdy.
Its anything up to 10 years in prison, for an untreatable bout of mental illness.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I agree with the state psychiatrist's diagnosis. Anyone who does something a bit pointless in exchange for ten years in the petit-gulag is as mad as a March hare in my book.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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It may be the war will be decided by whichever of the Big Two stays in office longer. (I'm not including Trump in that equation.)
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Ukraine may have stumbled on a war-winning formula.
Bombing people and places has to pass two tests: (1) whether it is militarily sensible and (2) whether it is 'morally' justified. The fact that nobody can agree what the pass mark is for either in any particular war does not affect that they exist. One policy, generally speaking, that passes both tests is retaliatory bombing on a tit-for-tat basis.
The Russians bombed an Amazon-style distribution centre near Kyiv, claiming it was involved in the distribution of drone parts. As with most Russian bombing, this was more a nuisance than an effective air strike. However, it 'permitted' the Ukrainians to take out an Amazon-style distribution centre near Moscow and, as with most Ukrainian bombing, it resulted in utter devastation and a smoke plume that could be seen from space.
Such is the centralism of the Russian state, their Amazon (called Wildberries) has something of a monopoly, has a small number of very large distribution centres and is a vast money-spinner for influential oligarchs. All these centres can get the seen-from-space treatment if Ukraine wills it.
So... what would you do if your country was fighting a voluntary war and it meant no more Amazon, no more Amazon-a-likes? You'd be right peeved, wouldn't you? If you could no longer fill up the car and go for a traditional shop because all the oil refineries have been space-smoked you'd be more than peeved.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Ukraine just took out another hu-u-uge Wildberries distribution centre. It looks as if they have cottoned on.
Maybe they won't need to do any more. If I worked in the Tilbury Amazon centre -- you know, the one that's so vast, staff are given bikes to ride round it -- and was told there was a fair chance it would be reduced to a pile of ash and a plume of smoke that can be seen from space while I was riding round it, I'd probably phone in with a sickie.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Of the 20 Wildberries distribution centres, 2 are destroyed, 3 others have been hit, 15 are still untouched.
Wildberries has refused to pay out to any businesses, who have lodged their stock with Wildberries, that is if this stock is lost because of drone damage.
Companies, really need to try and move out their stock, as its clear that all of the 18 centres in range will be destroyed, and many companies will lose everything. The problem is organising this removal, given fuel shortages, and also for these companies getting other safer storage.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Wildberries has refused to pay out to any businesses, who have lodged their stock with Wildberries, that is if this stock is lost because of drone damage. |
I heard that too and it's a big, if incidental, bonus of the strategy. Vast numbers of small time Russian entrepreneurs are losing their stock as well as their livelihood. It's not just the millions of Russian consumers losing having to go without their home-delivered goodies.
It's quite normal for there to be insurance exclusion clauses for war damage and Acts of God but, since these are essentially state-sponsored emporia, this only serves to stoke the unrest.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I'd like to mention something that occurred to me before this Wildberries thing blew up (!).
The Soviet Union had a tacit bargain with the Russian on the Omsk omnibus: 'Your security, both home and abroad, is guaranteed and your basic needs will be provided for but the price is an impoverished supply of the finer things of life.' Putin grew up in that world. It comes natural to him. Maybe he even regards it as a sign of virtue.
Post-1990 Russia offered a different deal. 'Daily life might get a bit hairy but at least you'll be able to buy the gaudy stuff people in other countries regard as their inalienable right to enjoy, however theoretically.'
Putin's Russia is gradually failing to deliver on both fronts.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Here is a long but insightful piece on the Wildberries campaign from an old sparring partner of mine, Shane Fitzgerald. I don't necessarily agree with his conclusions but even so it's worth a browse.
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Why Ukraine Is Targeting the 'Russian Amazon'
Attacking Wildberries is all about psychological terror and social disruption:
it will be both effective and ineffective
In a recent wave of mass-scale drone attacks, Ukraine has began to target the largest e-commerce network in Russia – Wildberries. Wildberries is often dubbed the ‘Russian Amazon’. Here is last night’s (22nd of July) attack on the Wildberries Krasnodar warehouse complex.
| Night of multiple mass-drone attacks on sites across Russia. This is the Wildberries warehouse complex in Krasnodar after the assault. Wildberries is the Russian Amazon. Ukraine has started to target their facilities. For context, this is the 4th largest warehouse in the whole of Russia with an area of 150,000 square metres. It employs 5,000 people. |
The facility has an area of approximately 150,000m² and employs 5,000 people. Krasnodar is 850 miles from Moscow and 190 miles from the border with Ukraine. It is the 4th largest of its kind in the country.
In the same mass-drone assault, Ukraine also hit Wildberries warehouse facilities in the city of Nevinnomyssk. Nevinnomyssk has a population of 110,000 people and is situated 185 miles from Krasnodar.
| Second drone attack on the ‘Russian Amazon'. This is the Wildberries warehouse complex in Nevinnomyssk. It is the 6th largest warehouse in Russia with an area of 120,000 square metres and employs 3,500 people. |
A few days prior to the attacks above, on the night of the 20th of July, three sites were hit. The Wildberries logistics centre in the city of Elektrostal located in the Moscow region was struck. This is a massive operation and is among the largest company storage and logistics facilities in the whole of Russia at 250,000m² to 360,000m² depending on the source and how it’s measured. It has a workforce of approximately 5,000 and can store 200 million items.
Two lesser but similarly large-scale warehouse centres were targeted on the same night, in Podolsk (Moscow Oblast), and in Kotovsk, 430km southeast of Moscow. Overall, this represents somewhere in the region of 850,000m² of logistical space where around 20,000 people work. More important than this is the loss of human life and the impact on the civilian population.
So far, and these are ongoing incidents with new information coming to light as they develop, these are the figures for those killed and injured:
Kotovsk: 7 killed and 25 injured.
Nevinnomyssk: 5 injured.
Elektrostal: 40 to 61 injured. A person may or may not have been killed.
Krasnodar: 1 killed and 10 injured.
Podolsk: I can find no consistent and reliable casualty information specific to the attack that did not overlap with the wider Moscow-region strikes.
Keep in mind that the dead and injured were and are civilian employees working at the warehouses of a private company; we are not talking about soldiers or military installations or even the sorts of industries essential for the waging of war.
Why Wildberries? Wildberries is Russia’s largest e-commerce company and one of the biggest companies in the country. It is often called the ‘Russian Amazon’. It makes 6.1 trillion roubles ($68 billion) in annual sales and occupies a total combined area of 5.2 million square metres in terms of its facilities and storage warehouses.
It works with over one million merchants, the majority of these being small and medium-sized businesses for whom Wildberries is essential for sales and distribution. It processes in excess of 20 million orders a day. It is also a major investor in others spheres of the economy. In short, it’s a big deal as a company.
More than this however, it occupies a singularly unique position in Russian society. It is just as known as companies like Gazprom, Rosneft and Lukoil, but it is far more visible and immediate for the vast majority of citizens than such fossil fuel giants. Sberbank is just as visible and immediate, more so in fact, but the state bank with all its seriousness and exactitude is worlds apart from the sort of informal feel of a business like Wildberries.
This is the reason why Ukraine has targeted it. The attacks both scare the population in a very visible way an disrupt daily life in a very tangible way. The goal of Zelenskiy’s 40-day influence operation is to ‘influence the aggressor state in order to compel it to end to the war.’
By means of deep, constant and unpredictable drone assaults on sites of various types right across the western part of the Russian Federation – in what is now essentially guerilla drone warfare – Ukraine hopes to both scare the civilian population and to disrupt life to a point where Putin will be forced to agree to an end to the war and, in theory, to a peace deal more amenable to Zelenskiy and his Government.
This is the essence of the 40-day operation and this is why Wildberries specifically has been targeted: psychological terror and social disruption.
Will It Work? In short – yes and no. As discussed in my recent analysis of what has changed in the Russo-Ukrainian War, it will be effective in a certain limited sense. Putin admitted a few weeks ago that Ukraine has caused real problems in the form of fuel disruptions with its attacks, albeit he also stressed that the severity has been overstated. The same will be true for the Wildberries attacks.
The goal of Zelenskiy’s 40-day gambit – the goal of terrorism in general – is the creation of something scary enough before the general population that a state can be pushed into changing its policies.
It is an essential weapon in the toolkit of oppressed peoples in their struggles for freedom and independence, where we may no longer call it terrorism, as it is the bread and butter of myriad species of radicals and extremists, where it is nothing other than the manufacture of terror for the ends of a lunatic.
The influence operation will achieve certain theatrical objectives. It will look good for many that make up the collective western public. It will likewise look good for the European Powers most especially. This will also aid the latter in pushing their peoples to consent to ever-more military aid for Ukraine in their never-ending drive for war in perpetuity with Russia.
It will look scary to Russian society because it is scary. Attacking Wildberries warehouses and apartment buildings is a very different thing to striking military installations and industrial sites.
The problem for Ukraine here is that Russian society, perhaps more than any other, has a long and proven history of coming together during times of troubles to act as one and make the necessary sacrifices for the common good.
Much of Russian society already believes that Putin and his Government must hit Ukraine far harder, to end the war and to scare the West into finally pulling back from the brink. The Wildberries drone attacks may easily amplify the calls for an intensification of Russia’s strikes on Kiev and other cities.
This is the unusual dynamic Ukraine is faced with: be too effective in your drone campaign and it may just well be wholly countereffective. If Ukraine hits Russia too well and too hard, Russia might just hit back fivefold.
Then there are the fronts – the eastern front of Donetsk and Lugansk and the southern front of Zaporozhzhia and Kherson. The spectacle of Wildberries’ warehouses on fire and conflagrations at oil depots does nothing to change the theatre of war where most questions are being decided.
Ukraine is holding out in Zaporozhzhia and Kherson more or less, for now. It has already lost all of Lugansk and most of Donetsk. Basic logic and proven reality tell us that the balance of power can and will only ineluctably move in one direction and that everything gets worse for Ukraine the longer the war continues.
Zelenskiy would be far better off standing back to appreciate the limits of the possible and the impossible. Zelenskiy would be far better off putting all his energies into doing what’s right for his people rather than doing things that may get more of them killed.
That he remains hellbent on forcing his people to fight until the last Ukrainian man is dead in a war that cannot be won and one that is clearly being waged for the interests of foreign powers says that the King of Kiev is either completely mad or extremely bad.
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