War on Terrorism (Politics)

[Mick Harper]

But now I've thought about it, you may be right. If Iran is playing a genuine long game and it's all about domination of the Gulf and/or the wider Muslim world, they have demonstrated to the Arab Gulf states that the post-war American umbrella is not something they fear. 'Get in line or else, and that includes the Omanis.'

But this falls at the first hurdle. They Gulf States may be prepared to pay the Hormuz Tax, they may be prepared to pay the tax on behalf of other countries exporting their oil. But what are the Iranians going to do when those countries say to them, "We don't need your oil now the Strait is open. Until you behave properly over the Strait (lest other countries start doing it with their straits) you can shove your oil up your arse."

There isn't any country I know of that's in favour of an Iranian Hormuz (even those who are in favour of Iran) and the IRGC can't do anything to ships that aren't there. So it still looks to me to be the outwash of an internal power struggle.

[Mick Harper]