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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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I think you are right.
Wileys view is that we have it the wrong way round, that this started as a defensive attempt to weaken the Russian spring/summer offensive by destroying the logistics that were arriveing at the front, from both ends of the Novorossiya/R-280 Highway.
| The Highway of Death[1][2][3][4][a] or the Novorossiya highway[4][b] are nicknames for a 700-kilometre[7] motorway on the northern coast of the Sea of Azov in the Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine that has been playing an important role in the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine for Russia's military logistics, particularly for supplying Crimea.[1] It is a combination of two stretches from the existing Highway M14 of Ukraine (part of European route E58) from the Russo-Ukrainian border via Mariupol until Melitopol, and from there the existing Highway M18 of Ukraine (part of European route E105) to Simferopol. |
Whilst Crimea was out of range for most Ukranian drones (before the development of mid range drones) then Crimea was being used as part of a massive logistics operation to support the Russian front line.
As the sucess of the new mass produced Mid-range drone attacks along the Land Bridge became apparent. Russias main problem ie supplying the front line became more difficult, and these mid range attacks started accelerating, even though Russia is adapting by using back roads, its still losing 30 trucks a day.
The main attacks in Crimea eg (not Kerch but the Northern bridges) are in in the north of Crimea so are attempts to stop the Russians supporting their front line, which is now running short, at a time when they need to launch their summer offensive.
The Ukranians are primarily trying to starve the Russian front line. For now....
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I agree with all this. The only caveat I would enter is that, no matter how we try and avoid it, our sources are Ukraine-biased. I enjoy endlessly watching Russki trucking being taken out as much as the next man (though I like to see the geezer jumping out at the last minute), but da Bear can lay its hands on a million trucks--and if need be a million men to drive them.
As for what's in the trucks, Russian soldiers (and civilians) can survive on half rations of what we would call short rations to begin with. And have enough left over to be absurdly wasteful. I agree Putin's going nowhere with his summer offensive. But nor is Zelensky any time soon.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | but da Bear can lay its hands on a million trucks--and if need be a million men to drive them. |
But can it lay its hands on Ivans that are capable of driving off road, at night, in a war zone, to meet up with front line troops, that are also able to do basic maintenance if needed ?
Its a bit more than, a love of adventure and HGV experience required because what was, until April, well behind the front line, nyet problem, (no geo located footage of individual trucks being blown up) is suddenly requiring training and iniative.....for what is a active war zone, where you are going to have multiple challenges......via unplanned differing routes and terrain types....
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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A possibly epochal development in the Ukraine War. The story so far:
1. The Russians have been denied use of Elon Musk's Starlink system for navigating Kyiv-bound missiles.
2. So Putin set up tracking stations in Belarus and flew the missiles either over or along the borders of Belarus.
3. Zelensky warned Lukashenko that if he carries on allowing this, Ukraine will take out the stations and won't be over-careful about collateral damage.
4. Lukashenko has just switched off the stations.
5. He has clearly worked out who the local strongman now is.
It makes all this talk about joint Russian/Belarus army manoeuvres and troop build-ups preparatory to the opening of a new northern Ukraine front ring a bit hollow. (Unless the whole thing is a deliberate deception because a northern invasion is about to be launched.)
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | The Ukranians are now shutting down the Kerch bridge by not attempting to destroy it as they did previously. They are treating it as just another a highway by flying over multiple cheap drones that have no capability of destroying the bridge, but could destroy a truck. |
A different motive occurred to me watching this https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SDlATRFm64o.
| The Ukrainians are 'building a Golden Bridge'. |
The elimination of Crimean fuel supplies has not just brought the holiday traffic to a halt, it has the half-million Russians who arrived in the peninsula post-2014 thanks to cheap state mortgages queuing up to go over the Kerch Bridge, the only safe route back to Mother Russia. If things get bad enough, maybe the long-time Russian Crimeans will go too.
But the Crimean Tatars won't be going anywhere, they're inured to hardship. Then, assuming the Ukrainian Crimeans who fled post-2014 return, Crimea will for the first time in its history be properly (sort of) Ukrainian. They can even hold a plebiscite to prove it!
PS I didn't entirely believe claims made in the YouTube that disaffected Russian teenagers are acting as unpaid secret agents tipping off the Ukrainians about the whereabouts of oil trucks.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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It will be recalled that, early on in the war, Ukraine had not completely worked out that it was much better to be 'the darlings of the world' than to go step-for-step with Russia in being all-round bastards.
They especially cleaned up their act after almost ruinously -- and pointlessly -- blowing up the German Nordstream2 pipeline. The only minor blot remaining on their escutcheon is their continuing fondness for blowing up Russian generals outside their Moscow apartments. A practice that is deprecated but not outright condemned by world opinion.
So what are we to make of this?
| The Guardian wrote: | A woman suspected of carrying out last week’s bomb attack in Monaco that seriously injured a Ukraine-born business tycoon has been found shot dead near Kyiv, in the latest twist in a case that has shaken the wealthy Mediterranean principality.
Ukrainian prosecutors said on Tuesday the woman had been found with a gunshot wound to the head and that two men had been arrested in connection with the case, including an officer with Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR) and a former law enforcement officer. |
Either Ukraine has taken up eliminating renegades by bombing friendly countries' apartment blocks and/or eliminating without due process operatives who fail in doing so and/or, as President Zelensky will no doubt assure us, it was all the work of renegade individuals in the Ukrainian secret services.
But whatever it was, the (western) world will be quick to either forgive Ukraine or carefully ignore the whole thing. As they learned to do very early in this war.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Crimea must be in a bad situation as the Russian are sailing unguarded, non-escorted river boats they carry about 50'000 gallons of petrol/diesel each, through the Azov to try and supply Crimea. The Ukranians ae saying their drones hit 10 out of 12 boats last night.
Whilst we dont know the impact of the Ukranian strikes on Russian logistics, these are increasingly risky, desperate Russian actions to supply Crimea.
Wileys best take is that the Russian Military is running low on diesel.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Crimeans have taken to calling themselves prisoners-of-war since they are not allowed to cross back into Russia (proper) by any of the existing routes.
I am assuming that the queues for petrol in Russia (even in Moscow!) will do for Putin eventually. Up with some things Russians will not put.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Update: Monaco bombing
It was reported yesterday that 'the officer with Ukraine’s military intelligence agency (HUR)' was found to have a private torture chamber at his disposal. (He has now been formally charged with murder.) I'm not sure whether this strengthens or weakens the case that he was acting outside official channels.
"Bond, Miss Moneypenny tells me you like a bit of bondage and keep a spare room in your Knightsbridge flat for the purpose. I've got a little job for you. Plausible deniability attaches, I'm afraid."
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Crimea must be in a bad situation as the Russian are sailing unguarded, non-escorted river boats they carry about 50'000 gallons of petrol/diesel each, through the Azov to try and supply Crimea. The Ukranians ae saying their drones hit 10 out of 12 boats last night. |
My man Davidov was apoplectic yesterday. The Ukes had taken out eight more boats. "That's twenty-one in the last seventy-two hours alone. Why are they making it so easy for us," he fumed.
PS They also beat their own record by bombing an Omsk oil refinery, two thousand miles away. It was the biggest in Russia still undamaged and, so confident were the Russians of it being out of range, was guarded only by militia men with Kalashnikovs.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Exciting low cost business start up opportunites for Russian Capitalists.....
| "the possibility of establishing a rent of 1 ruble per year for investors on land plots in the Saksky and Chernomorsky districts is being considered." "Training and support are also being offered to businesses," | |
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