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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I spotted AI translating 'season ticket' as 'a rented place in the stands' in that last quote. Re the ref, there was this exchange, as reported by Al-Jazeera and the BBC (my translation):
US Immigration Officer: Sorry, sir, we're not allowing Somalis in.
Omar Artan: I know, that's why I've got a diplomatic passport.
Officer: Why's that then, sir?
Omar: I'm considered the best ref in Africa and I'm due to be in charge of a couple of World Cup matches.
Officer: Sorry, sir, no exceptions.
Omar: FIFA have made all the necessary clearances directly with your President. I really think you should check.
Officer: Well all right, but you'll have to stay in a cell while we do.
Omar: Fair enough.
Officer: Wakey, wakey, Mr Artan, we've had a word, it's no dice, we're putting you on a plane to Istanbul.
Andrew Giuliani (Head of White House Task Force on the World Cup): While I can't go into the derog [derogatory information] on that I can tell you it was the right decision by customs and border patrol and I support that decision.
The Iranian support staff got the same treatment though the players were allowed in. Come on! It could have been the other way round. There's plenty of masseuses in L.A.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | Let us sort out the latest tit-for-tat in the Hormuz Strait. It began with
1. The 'shooting down' of a US Apache helicopter 'patrolling' in the Strait. Iran has no business doing this. It is true the Americans ought not to have been doing anything so provocative but that is a lesser offence for which a lesser response was called for. |
According to Donald, not one but two Apache helicopters were flying side by side, patrolling the Strait, when a hostile drone got wedged between them, undaunted they kept flying on, until on trying to land, the drone started to catch fire, so the pilots deliberately ditched, only to be rescued by a sea drone.
It does make you wonder given the sucessful rescue by drone, why they were not using unmanned aerial drones to patrol the strait, err as they have been up to now.......
Clearly the pilots got incredibly unlucky with the first ever drone wedged between Apaches, but incredibly lucky with the first ever US unmanned sea rescue of ditched pilots.
Wild ! What are the chances?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I just realised I completely missed this bit of careful ignoral. Normally, when something of this sort happens, we are treated to endless animations showing how 'it might have happened'. Or, by this time, how it did happen, complete with voice tapes and radar tracking shots.
But, no. All we got was 'an Apache has been downed by an Iranian drone', followed by a prompt Iranian denial (as opposed to a triumphant 'the IRGC does not comment on current military operations'). I'm having a bath later, I'll try out some scenarios.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Helicoptors are relatively slow moving and fly at low altitudes, the pilots do not normally have ejection seats.
If the Commander in Chief had ordered helicoptors in, he would presumably have known they would be vulnerable to not just drones, but MANPADs, Anti Aircraft Artillery (canons) Radar guided Missiles and so on.
It would be highly likely they the US would suffer casualties, using slow moving, low altitude piloted helicoptors.
Russia has lost roughly 20-30% of its attack helicoptors in Ukraine, just because each one does not get reported, it doesnt mean that it doesnt happen, it means that news outlets prioritise reporting of jets and battleships etc....
The bigger question is are slow moving helicoptors like slow moving tanks effectively becoming obsolete (for attack rather than transport purposes) because they are so easy to target........
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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These so called "tit for tat" exchanges appear to have now ended. Trump is claiming that there has been a breakthrough in negotiations.
Iran and Israel have stated that no negotiations have taken place with them.
Looking for a positive.... this is surely the first time that Iran and Israel have actually agreed about something.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Looking for another positive ......the price of Brent has dropped on the Presidents announcement.
Wileys theory is that the markets are pricing not on the demand and reserve supplies of oil, and whether peace will come soon enough...but on whether Trump has capacity to take decisions.
They pannicked when he announced yesterday he was taking Kharg Island.
It was like
"Oh shit he has gone insane"
"No this always happens"
"But he thinks he is God"
"No, you really shouldnt panic"
"But he has ordered a Golden statue of himself and is ordering folks to pray in front of it"
"Look this has happened 37 times now he always gets better"
"I really dont think he will recover, I am really really sure, he is ordering the taking of Kharg"
......................
"Wow! I really didnt think that was going to happen"
"There you go the meds are kicking in now"
" Phew ....I really didnt think...."
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | Helicoptors are relatively slow moving and fly at low altitudes, the pilots do not normally have ejection seats. |
I understand that modern technology is such that helicopters can get down safely if the main rotor is u/s but the back one is still functioning.
| If the Commander in Chief had ordered helicoptors in, he would presumably have known they would be vulnerable to not just drones, but MANPADs, Anti Aircraft Artillery (canons) Radar guided Missiles and so on. It would be highly likely they the US would suffer casualties, using slow moving, low altitude piloted helicoptors. |
So surely he had reason to believe there would be no Iranian reaction. The operation was, after all, being conducted in Omani territorial waters and the helis were not engaging in overt hostile activities. Unless you're suggesting this was a deliberate coat-trail.
| Russia has lost roughly 20-30% of its attack helicoptors in Ukraine, just because each one does not get reported, it doesnt mean that it doesnt happen, it means that news outlets prioritise reporting of jets and battleships etc.... |
Sorry, but a heli is a heli. We're not dealing with the Battle of Britain here.
| The bigger question is are slow moving helicoptors like slow moving tanks effectively becoming obsolete (for attack rather than transport purposes) because they are so easy to target........ |
I think they largely are. Though lots of people are trying to buy (mostly unavailingly) retired US Warthogs.
| These so called "tit for tat" exchanges appear to have now ended. Trump is claiming that there has been a breakthrough in negotiations. Iran and Israel have stated that no negotiations have taken place with them. Looking for a positive.... this is surely the first time that Iran and Israel have actually agreed about something. |
Trump cried 'uncle', not for the first time. (And correctly, he is still holding the high hand.)
| Looking for another positive ......the price of Brent has dropped on the Presidents announcement. Wileys theory is that the markets are pricing not on the demand and reserve supplies of oil, and whether peace will come soon enough...but on whether Trump has capacity to take decisions. |
It's down to eighty-three dollars which is the first time it's budged from its 90-110 range established at the outset of the war. On the question of supply and demand, I would think the amount getting out of the Gulf--both American and Iranian inspired--together with increased production elsewhere (and it being summer in the northern hemisphere) means its balanced pretty much.
There's still a twenty-dollar premium over the pre-war price for, as you go on to say, the chance of Trump losing it.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I realise we've been here a dozen times before but these latest reports of an imminent US/Iran peace deal seem kosher. From what I can glean it appears to be tantamount to an Iranian surrender.
I'm not arguing that this was worth a war but it will be (yet another) Trumpian triumph.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Wiley wrote: | | Any outcome post war, that leaves the US in control of the strait is now a victory, for the west, any outcome that leaves the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp in control, (Wiley reckons they currently are the group most in control of a fractured Iran) would appear to constitute a defeat |
I am not changing my position on this, even if the Strait becomes open, if the IRGC still control it, ie future safe passage has to be negotiated with them, for a fee or toll, then they have won.......
BTW I would say that there is "a snowballs chance" that Bibi will withdraw from Lebanon as required by the Memorandum of Understanding.
The most likely income is that the US will pull out, irrespective of a deal, claiming victory as its in Trumps interest.
Iran will still be in control the strait as its in the IRGC interests. They will charge fees.
Israel will continue to occupy bits of Lebanon as its in Bibis interests.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Wiley wrote: Any outcome post war, that leaves the US in control of the strait is now a victory, for the west, any outcome that leaves the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corp in control, (Wiley reckons they currently are the group most in control of a fractured Iran) would appear to constitute a defeat
I am not changing my position on this, even if the Strait becomes open, if the IRGC still control it, ie future safe passage has to be negotiated with them, for a fee or toll, then they have won....... |
You misunderstand the situation in that case. Iran has always had the physical power to 'control' the Strait, irrespective of whoever happens to be in control of Iran. They have never exercised this power, nor will they be allowed to exercise it after the war, on the basis that no country anywhere in modern times has ever been permitted to 'control' an international waterway (other than by an international treaty).
The USA will not be allowed to control the Strait of Hormuz either though no doubt there will be a temporary arrangement while mines are cleared etc.
| BTW I would say that there is "a snowballs chance" that Bibi will withdraw from Lebanon as required by the Memorandum of Understanding. |
That will be carefully ignored in the Memorandum of Understanding.
| The most likely income is that the US will pull out, irrespective of a deal, claiming victory as its in Trumps interest. |
Nobody would be fooled by that. Not even Donald Trump.
| Iran will still be in control the strait as its in the IRGC interests. They will charge fees. |
I will pay them out of my own pocket if this is the outcome.
| Israel will continue to occupy bits of Lebanon as its in Bibis interests. |
I fear this is a racing certainty.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| The BBC wrote: | | Anthropic has suspended its powerful new AI model after US authorities raised security concerns just days following its public release. In a statement published on its website, external, Anthropic said it was ordered to suspend foreign nationals from using Claude Fable 5, a program that the company self-described as "too powerful". |
I was myself busy making a YouTube using Fable 5. Now I'll have to engage some tiresome American as a cut-out.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Wiley wrote: | | Iran will still be in control the strait as its in the IRGC interests. They will charge fees. |
| Mick Harper wrote: |
I will pay them out of my own pocket if this is the outcome.
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I dont understand why you would.
I reckon the Shipping Companies will anyway pay as it gives them a real guarentee of safe passage, that will reduce their insurance costs.
Now that dollars are no longer going to be used, (it will be Yuan) there is no need to fear US sanctions......
Given that Iran, and China and many shipping companies are all content, and it is after all them not the US that do the great majority of the oil and other sea trade, in this area. It seems to Wiley that fees are going to happen, just as they do in the Bospherous.
Dont get me wrong I feel sorry for Europe, but we are not going to help the US enforce a reopening of the Strait (It wasnt our mess, we are way too busy with Russia, is our argument).
The Gulf states I agree are against the idea, of fees, but they will always hedge, (they have now realised that the US cannot protect them) and so will fall into line. They always do.
I agree, toll and fee free, was nice while it lasted, but tbh it hasnt kept the strait open........surely it is better to pay for a guarenteed service.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Wiley wrote: Iran will still be in control the strait as its in the IRGC interests. They will charge fees.
I will pay them out of my own pocket if this is the outcome.
I dont understand why you would. I reckon the Shipping Companies will anyway pay as it gives them a real guarentee of safe passage, that will reduce their insurance costs. |
It's the oil market you don't understand. There won't be any shipping companies. Two million dollars to pass the Hormuz Strait is their profit margin on the entire trip. They will go elsewhere for their oil.
| Now that dollars are no longer going to be used, (it will be Yuan) there is no need to fear US sanctions...... |
There is a reason why the oil industry uses petrodollars. Everything is geared to it. You can use an infinite number of other methods but your margins get blown at every stage. Only if you can't use petrodollars would you use some other medium of exchange.
| Given that Iran, and China and many shipping companies are all content, and it is after all them not the US that do the great majority of the oil and other sea trade, in this area. It seems to Wiley that fees are going to happen, just as they do in the Bospherous. |
These are not fees in the sense of tolls. They are to defray Turkey's costs in the expensive business of keeping the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles passable by modern ships and are regulated by the 1936 Montreux International Convention.
There are no costs pertaining to the Hormuz Strait, it's all done by ships following various agreed navigational channels for their own safety.
| Dont get me wrong I feel sorry for Europe, but we are not going to help the US enforce a reopening of the Strait (It wasnt our mess, we are way too busy with Russia, is our argument). |
Don't get Europe wrong, they have no say in these matters. Apart from being fully paid-up members of the World Community.
| The Gulf states I agree are against the idea, of fees, but they will always hedge, (they have now realised that the US cannot protect them) and so will fall into line. They always do. |
They will have to reduce the price of their oil by the equivalent of the Hormuz toll or nobody will buy their oil. Hedging and asking for protection doesn't come into it if they have, as you put it, fallen into line.
| I agree, toll and fee free, was nice while it lasted, but tbh it hasnt kept the strait open........surely it is better to pay for a guarenteed service. |
Do you really think an Iranian supervisory role will be content with just manning a toll post? The world says, "Tell us another one, Wiley, it's got bells on it."
Quite apart from every other riparian state in the world setting up tolling posts in their neck of the ocean. I'm sure us and France will be first in the queue with the Straits of Calais. Cor blimey, that'll pay for a bridge across.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: |
It's the oil market you don't understand. There won't be any shipping companies. Two million dollars to pass the Hormuz Strait is their profit margin on the entire trip. They will go elsewhere for their oil.
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There is profit in Oil.
Buyers and sellers require shipping companies.
The worst thing to happen to a shipping company is there very large carrier is stationary, because they need to be earning $25,000 a day to break even. Some can earn $100,000 a day but only if they are shipping.
They will do the math and use Hormuz, rather than go on longer routes. BTW are you saying that Shipping Companies, having diverted from Hormuz wont travel via the Panama or Suez canal for which there is also a fee....?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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It's the oil market you don't understand. There won't be any shipping companies. Two million dollars to pass the Hormuz Strait is their profit margin on the entire trip. They will go elsewhere for their oil.
There is profit in Oil. |
OK
| Buyers and sellers require shipping companies. |
OK
| The worst thing to happen to a shipping company is there very large carrier is stationary, because they need to be earning $25,000 a day to break even. Some can earn $100,000 a day but only if they are shipping. |
OK
| They will do the math and use Hormuz, rather than go on longer routes. |
They will do the math and decline to use Hormuz if they are going to have to pay a toll that removes any monetary gain if they did. Shipping companies do not get 'paid' by anyone. They buy oil at the 'well-head price' (or the Kharg Island price or the Saudi refined price or whatever) and they sell it at the Chicago spot price (or the equivalent) somewhere far away.
As you say, they can earn $100,000 a day transporting that oil because of the differential in the two prices. A ten day voyage to the Far East, for example, might very well put a million dollars in their bin. Free and clear. Unless they had to pay two million to the Iranians for going through the Hormuz Strait en route.
| BTW are you saying that Shipping Companies dont travel via the Panama or Suez canal for which there is also a fee....? |
I wouldn't be so foolish. Neither the Panama Canal nor the Suez Canal is an International Waterway. The clue is in the name. They are canals. They are proprietary property and can charge whatever they like to whoever they like. As far as I know they charge whatever the market will bear.
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