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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Wileys view is that this is propoganda
Donald Trump: For fuck's sake don't bomb Beirut. |
I don't see how. The conversation was leaked. Unless you are saying that was propaganda.
| The same applies to attacks on Iran. |
OK
| The US and Israel are playing out the Soft cop/ Tough Cop negotiating routine. |
You really think the US are capable of such subtlety? Well, OK.
Unless that is for Iranian consumption. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying I don't specially buy it.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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However there was a coda yesterday that supports your case (somewhat). The Israelis bombed Beirut despite the fatwa against it. Al-Jazeera carefully reported, "It is understood President Trump knew of the raid beforehand."
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: |
You really think the US are capable of such subtlety? Well, OK.
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This is not Michelin standard.
It is standard Trump fare..............defrosted prawns, wilting lettuce and shop sauce.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Donald Trump: For fuck's sake don't bomb Beirut.
Benjamin Netanyahu: Why not?
Donald Trump: The Deep Blockade is working, the Iraninas are being slowly choked out.
Benjamin Netanyahu: Great.
Donald Trump: Why change a winning strategy?
Benjamin Netanyahu: Sure, but why are we negotiating for a deal.
Donald Trump: We are stringing the negotiations out, everytime a deal seems close, I just throw in an extra demand.
Benjamin Netanyahu: Cunning....
Donald Trump: And you promise to observe the cease-fire?
Benjamin Netanyahu: Sure.....why not.......
Indeed .......Why not ?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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What you are describing is 'a war'. It's still being fought. We don't know who's going to win. We don't even know who's winning. It's all down to which set of people are prepared to put the most into it. That's why we use 'wars' as the ultimate method of resolving disputes. There's no greater test.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The initial shock and awe campaign has not resulted in regime change, (or if it has, it has given the IRGC more power).
The Iranian missile weaponry has certainly been impacted, but not wiped out. The Iranians are weakoned militarily.
The US Gulf bases are out of action
The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran, a fee tolling system is in place.
The Blockade is not working, or if it is, its not swift enough to save Bibi and probably Trump.
More forces are coming to the region......Increasingly Israel is being used as a base.
The US are keeping over 50,000 servicemen and women in the theatre, this is not enough for a full scale invasion, particularly as they have not got the support of a unified Iranian oppososition to also call on. A full scale invasion, is not going to happen.
Trump wants something military, but short of a full scale invasion, that will be seen as a dramatic military victory. (like Venezuela)
Maybe capture the nuclear material or Kharg Island, or capture control of the Strait.
But..... TBH he has resolved to take Cuba (it will be easier) and he cant make up his mind.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | The initial shock and awe campaign has not resulted in regime change, (or if it has, it has given the IRGC more power). |
OK
| The Iranian missile weaponry has certainly been impacted, but not wiped out. The Iranians are weakoned militarily. |
OK
| The US Gulf bases are out of action |
Not OK, but let's assume...
| The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran, a fee tolling system is in place. |
OK to the first half, not OK to the second half, but let's assume...
| The Blockade is not working, or if it is, its not swift enough to save Bibi and probably Trump. |
Not OK to the first half, nobody knows to the second half.
| More forces are coming to the region......Increasingly Israel is being used as a base. |
I'm not privy to their war plans.
| The US are keeping over 50,000 servicemen and women in the theatre, this is not enough for a full scale invasion, particularly as they have not got the support of a unified Iranian oppososition to also call on. A full scale invasion, is not going to happen. |
err... OK.
| Trump wants something military, but short of a full scale invasion, that will be seen as a dramatic military victory. (like Venezuela) |
That ship has already sailed.
| Maybe capture the nuclear material or Kharg Island, or capture control of the Strait. |
Not a practical act of war or they would have done it by now.
| But..... TBH he has resolved to take Cuba (it will be easier) and he cant make up his mind. |
It's what we call 'a war'. We don't yet know etc etc.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Ceasefire Quiz Question
| Lebanon and Israel have agreed two ceasefires under American auspices, on 26th April 2026 and 3rd June 2026. How many times was the first ceasefire broken by (a) Lebanon and (b) Israel. |
0
3,491
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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I am afraid that when you get a failed or teetering state due to foreign interventions, amid devastating economic collapse, rampant political corruption and paralysis, all its neighbours do what they please.
In Lebanons case the worst neighbour has normally been Syria who managed a 30 year occupation.
The fact is the collapse of Syria, has encouraged Iran and Israel, to increase their bullying.
After 50 years, of them all having a go... I doubt this is going to stop.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | I am afraid that when you get a failed or teetering state due to foreign interventions, amid devastating economic collapse, rampant political corruption and paralysis, all its neighbours do what they please. |
Especially the neighbour that caused all this in the first place.
| In Lebanons case the worst neighbour has normally been Syria who managed a 30 year occupation. |
That was because the Palestinian resistance movement had moved into Lebanon after Israel had forced them out of the West Bank, wasn't it? (Though admittedly Syria has opposed the existence of Lebanon ever since 1944 when the two states were set up by France.)
| The fact is the collapse of Syria, has encouraged Iran and Israel, to increase their bullying. |
The Assad regime was supporting Hezbollah (and vice versa). The new government is resolutely opposed to them.
| After 50 years, of them all having a go... I doubt this is going to stop. |
Not if Israel has any say in the matter.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Appropriate Response Quiz
You're sitting at home minding your own business. You hear a Sudanese migrant has stabbed someone in your city. Do you
A. Go out and find a Sudanese migrant and stab him (or her).
B. Go out and find any migrant and have a right go at them.
C. Go onto the Tommy Robinson website to find out where the lads are meeting up.
D. Send a contribution to Mencap.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I couldn't bear to follow the agonised washing of hands on Newsnight but can you tell me if anyone said:
"In what circumstances can a young Sudanese male be given a four-year permission to stay? It is true any young Sudanese male would be fully entitled to seek asylum, the state his country is in. It is also true that the EU and/or the UK would be well advised to follow policies that do not make joining one or other of the fighting Sudanese factions his best option.
But does anyone think that that best option is to do virtually nothing about setting up well-appointed refugee camps on the borders of Sudan but instead let any Sudanese who has the money, the connections and the will to get into Europe at some point--at any point--and then wander aimlessly around Europe?"
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Let us sort out the latest tit-for-tat in the Hormuz Strait. It began with
1. The 'shooting down' of a US Apache helicopter 'patrolling' in the Strait. Iran has no business doing this. It is true the Americans ought not to have been doing anything so provocative but that is a lesser offence for which a lesser response was called for.
2. However, a problem then arose when Iran denied it had shot down the helicopter. If this is true they ought to have immediately offered assistance in finding the true cause (or the true miscreants). If it is untrue the Iranians have made their second mistake.
3. In the absence of any such invitation from Iran, Trump was correct to say that 'a proportionate response' would be forthcoming. The taking out of five Iranian military sites around the Hormuz Strait, was indeed a proportionate response.
4. The US then made a mistake by saying their air strikes were in retaliation not for the downing of the Apache, but for this and Iranian attacks on shipping in the Strait. It is essential when titting-for-tatting not to muddy the waters.
5. Iran made its third mistake by sending off missile strikes on American military sites in Bahrain and Jordan in retaliation for the American strikes on hers. It is irrelevant whether Iran was responsible for the Apache downing, this is just opening Pandora's Box for no other reason than posturing.
6. However no appreciable harm seems to have come from these Iranian strikes so it is open to the Americans to say that, in the circumstances, honour has been satisfied--because it has--and intend no further action.
7. An acceptable, and better, alternative is for the Americans to say nothing and do nothing.
8. We shall have to see if either of these policies is adopted.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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It looks like our US friends have discovered the biggest terror plot aimed against the World Cup since 1998.
As you will remember in 1998 the terrorists targeted England v Tunisia.
| The plot involved terrorists infiltrating the Stade Vélodrome in Marseille as stadium crew, in order to attack English players and spectators during the England–Tunisia match on 15 June.[3] Terrorists had reportedly planned to blow up the England substitute bench (targeting youngsters David Beckham and Michael Owen), shoot English players and throw grenades into the stands.[15][16] Other terrorists were then to storm the United States national team's hotel in Paris and attack American players watching the game there.[3] The attacks would be followed by the hijacking of an aircraft by another group of terrorists to be crashed into the Civaux Nuclear Power Plant near Poitiers, causing a nuclear meltdown.[3] |
The FA not wanting to worry the players never told them about the planned attack. They didnt find out until years later. It would be nice to say the game passed off peacefully but it still didnt.
| The match was otherwise marred by supporter riots in Marseille, with British vehicles being bricked while bottles were thrown across the streets, causing police to use tear gas as large numbers of supporters were injured and arrested.[15] |
Rather interestingly wiki makes a claim that the attack was in part sponsored by Bin Laden, who was attached to Arsenal football club at the time.
| the plot reportedly had the backing and support of al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden.[17] Although bin Laden had a rented place in the stands of Arsenal Football Club, he wanted to destroy English football. |
Thankfully the US have nipped the latest cunning plan by denying the world class Somalian referee a US visa.
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