| View previous topic :: View next topic |
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
 |
|
Wileys view is that this is propoganda
Donald Trump: For fuck's sake don't bomb Beirut. |
I don't see how. The conversation was leaked. Unless you are saying that was propaganda.
| The same applies to attacks on Iran. |
OK
| The US and Israel are playing out the Soft cop/ Tough Cop negotiating routine. |
You really think the US are capable of such subtlety? Well, OK.
Unless that is for Iranian consumption. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm saying I don't specially buy it.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
|
However there was a coda yesterday that supports your case (somewhat). The Israelis bombed Beirut despite the fatwa against it. Al-Jazeera carefully reported, "It is understood President Trump knew of the raid beforehand."
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
| Mick Harper wrote: |
You really think the US are capable of such subtlety? Well, OK.
|
This is not Michelin standard.
It is standard Trump fare..............defrosted prawns, wilting lettuce and shop sauce.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
Donald Trump: For fuck's sake don't bomb Beirut.
Benjamin Netanyahu: Why not?
Donald Trump: The Deep Blockade is working, the Iraninas are being slowly choked out.
Benjamin Netanyahu: Great.
Donald Trump: Why change a winning strategy?
Benjamin Netanyahu: Sure, but why are we negotiating for a deal.
Donald Trump: We are stringing the negotiations out, everytime a deal seems close, I just throw in an extra demand.
Benjamin Netanyahu: Cunning....
Donald Trump: And you promise to observe the cease-fire?
Benjamin Netanyahu: Sure.....why not.......
Indeed .......Why not ?
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
|
What you are describing is 'a war'. It's still being fought. We don't know who's going to win. We don't even know who's winning. It's all down to which set of people are prepared to put the most into it. That's why we use 'wars' as the ultimate method of resolving disputes. There's no greater test.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
The initial shock and awe campaign has not resulted in regime change, (or if it has, it has given the IRGC more power).
The Iranian missile weaponry has certainly been impacted, but not wiped out. The Iranians are weakoned militarily.
The US Gulf bases are out of action
The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran, a fee tolling system is in place.
The Blockade is not working, or if it is, its not swift enough to save Bibi and probably Trump.
More forces are coming to the region......Increasingly Israel is being used as a base.
The US are keeping over 50,000 servicemen and women in the theatre, this is not enough for a full scale invasion, particularly as they have not got the support of a unified Iranian oppososition to also call on. A full scale invasion, is not going to happen.
Trump wants something military, but short of a full scale invasion, that will be seen as a dramatic military victory. (like Venezuela)
Maybe capture the nuclear material or Kharg Island, or capture control of the Strait.
But..... TBH he has resolved to take Cuba (it will be easier) and he cant make up his mind.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
| Wiley wrote: | | The initial shock and awe campaign has not resulted in regime change, (or if it has, it has given the IRGC more power). |
OK
| The Iranian missile weaponry has certainly been impacted, but not wiped out. The Iranians are weakoned militarily. |
OK
| The US Gulf bases are out of action |
Not OK, but let's assume...
| The Strait of Hormuz is controlled by Iran, a fee tolling system is in place. |
OK to the first half, not OK to the second half, but let's assume...
| The Blockade is not working, or if it is, its not swift enough to save Bibi and probably Trump. |
Not OK to the first half, nobody knows to the second half.
| More forces are coming to the region......Increasingly Israel is being used as a base. |
I'm not privy to their war plans.
| The US are keeping over 50,000 servicemen and women in the theatre, this is not enough for a full scale invasion, particularly as they have not got the support of a unified Iranian oppososition to also call on. A full scale invasion, is not going to happen. |
err... OK.
| Trump wants something military, but short of a full scale invasion, that will be seen as a dramatic military victory. (like Venezuela) |
That ship has already sailed.
| Maybe capture the nuclear material or Kharg Island, or capture control of the Strait. |
Not a practical act of war or they would have done it by now.
| But..... TBH he has resolved to take Cuba (it will be easier) and he cant make up his mind. |
It's what we call 'a war'. We don't yet know etc etc.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
Ceasefire Quiz Question
| Lebanon and Israel have agreed two ceasefires under American auspices, on 26th April 2026 and 3rd June 2026. How many times was the first ceasefire broken by (a) Lebanon and (b) Israel. |
0
3,491
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
I am afraid that when you get a failed or teetering state due to foreign interventions, amid devastating economic collapse, rampant political corruption and paralysis, all its neighbours do what they please.
In Lebanons case the worst neighbour has normally been Syria who managed a 30 year occupation.
The fact is the collapse of Syria, has encouraged Iran and Israel, to increase their bullying.
After 50 years, of them all having a go... I doubt this is going to stop.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
| Wiley wrote: | | I am afraid that when you get a failed or teetering state due to foreign interventions, amid devastating economic collapse, rampant political corruption and paralysis, all its neighbours do what they please. |
Especially the neighbour that caused all this in the first place.
| In Lebanons case the worst neighbour has normally been Syria who managed a 30 year occupation. |
That was because the Palestinian resistance movement had moved into Lebanon after Israel had forced them out of the West Bank, wasn't it? (Though admittedly Syria has opposed the existence of Lebanon ever since 1944 when the two states were set up by France.)
| The fact is the collapse of Syria, has encouraged Iran and Israel, to increase their bullying. |
The Assad regime was supporting Hezbollah (and vice versa). The new government is resolutely opposed to them.
| After 50 years, of them all having a go... I doubt this is going to stop. |
Not if Israel has any say in the matter.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
The Library Index 
FAQ 
Search
Register
Profile 
Log in to check your private messages 
Log in 
