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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| In Wileys mind folks have always taken advantage of the geography to create hunting and tolling opprtunities. |
Absolutely. Who wouldn't?
| Sometimes the geography needed to be improved a bit, sometimes improvements in weaponry meant what was acheivable changed over time. |
For both the tolled and the toller, remember.
| The Iranians have worked out that Larak Island can be used as a toll booth |
"'Whassat?"
"An island."
"Cor lummee, never noticed that before."
| much in the same way that the Compagnie Universelle du Canal Maritime de Suez saw profit from the construction, of the Suez canal, as the Egyptians saw an opprtunity by later nationalising this canal. |
You have listed (a) the Iranians spotting an island (b) the French building the Suez Canal and (c) the Egyptians seizing the Canal. Please, do go on.
| All the choke points will fall under tolls |
I can't speak for the past, but currently every natural choke point in the world (i.e.straits) is free from tolls, every artificial choke point (i.e. canals) has tolls.
I was going to jeer but then I spotted the next bit (which I didn't know about).
| There are roughly 48,000 ships transiting the Turkish straits each year. As of this year commercial ships have to pay Turkey $5.83 per net ton for so called service transit fees, each year the service fee rises. In 2022 it was $0.80...... The Tuirks are merely calling this a sevice fee not a toll...... What is the difference? Where is the outrage? |
At eighty cents a ton I would judge this a fair price for services rendered. Both the Bosporus and the Hellespont need a bit by way of dredging, lighting, bouying, policing etc.
At $5.83 I would judge this as an emergency war measure since only Ukrainian and Russian shipping are major users of the Straits at the moment. The Turks might try it on as a permanent measure after the war but since the Turkish Straits are subject to more international agreements than Port Said whores, I doubt they will succeed.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Jeer if you must.
The Houthis have been allegedly collecting, fees from select shipping companies to allow vessels to pass through the Red Sea without being targeted.
Wiley merely asked himself to questions, why must all shipping inform the Houthis of both their prescence, and their reasons for transit?
Why have the Houthis not got involved in the US Israel- Iran war so far?
Lets raise a glass to these new reconstructed helpful Houthis..... our supporters of freedom of navigation.........
No they are tolling, and the world is carefully ignoring it.......
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Argue, I must.
| The Houthis have been allegedly collecting, fees from select shipping companies to allow vessels to pass through the Red Sea without being targeted. |
OK
| Wiley merely asked himself to questions, why must all shipping inform the Houthis of both their prescence, and their reasons for transit? |
A fair question.
| Why have the Houthis not got involved in the US Israel- Iran war so far? |
That, I agree, is deafening.
| Lets raise a glass to these new reconstructed helpful Houthis..... our supporters of freedom of navigation......... |
I have been raising a glass to them for many years on the assumption they may bring the Yemeni nightmare to an end.
| No they are tolling, and the world is carefully ignoring it....... |
To be fair, you didn't mention the Houthis, there is no evidence they are tolling and the world can't carefully ignore what they don't know is happening, if it is happening.
N.B. The world might have turned a blind eye if the Houthis were accepting a few backhanders when 'choosing' what constituted an enemy ship and what didn't during the Gaza War. There was considerable confusion as to exactly who qualified as what, so pretty much everyone stopped using the Red Sea for a time.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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A 2024 UN report alleged that the Houthis were already collecting "illegal fees" for safe passage. Whilst I agree there was no smoking gun the whole shipping industry is rife with dark practices, including false flagging, illegal ship to ship transfers, tankers with responders off.
Tolling is just another dark practice, that they will be unable to trace and stamp out.
With de-dollarisation accelerating, tracing and sanctioning of tolling (eg removing from Swift) will become impossible. Iran has anyway mostly been under sanctions since the Revolution, that hasnt changed its behaviour, bombing of Iran and Houthis hasnt worked.
You really think a Trump blockade (along with a coalition of the willing) is going to restore freedom of navigation to the whole area?
Geography (control of choke points) and money will decide.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Wiley wrote: | | A 2024 UN report alleged that the Houthis were already collecting "illegal fees" for safe passage. Whilst I agree there was no smoking gun |
That tells us it wasn't extensive.
| the whole shipping industry is rife with dark practices, including false flagging, illegal ship to ship transfers, tankers with responders off. |
All the above when countries are under sanctions. There's some well known malarky in the legit trade--cleaning out your ballast at sea and not in port springs to mind--but if you're saying malpractice is 'rife' generally, you have to say what and by whom. Global shipping is too international to go unobserved.
| Tolling is just another dark practice, that they will be unable to trace and stamp out. |
Absolutely not. Tolling has to be publicly announced by its nature. Otherwise it would be piracy for someone to come alongside and demand money with menaces. We'd know about it within five minutes. The time it took the captain to ring head office and ask what he should do.
| With de-dollarisation accelerating, tracing and sanctioning of tolling (eg removing from Swift) will become impossible. Iran has anyway mostly been under sanctions since the Revolution, that hasnt changed its behaviour, bombing of Iran and Houthis hasnt worked. |
I can't really follow what you are saying here.
| You really think a Trump blockade (along with a coalition of the willing) is going to restore freedom of navigation to the whole area? |
What Trump blockade? Either it's going to work and they'll be off, or it isn't going to work and they'll be off.
| Geography (control of choke points) and money will decide. |
The world shipping industry is going to decide. And they decided on no tolls a very long time ago.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Intriguing election results from red-ribbed Indiana where the Republicans were running their state primaries. Usually these are shoe-ins for the incumbents. This time a few of them had opposed the President's demands that the entire state gets itself redistricted so that an extra gerrymandered Republican can slip into the House of Representatives come November.
You can kinda understand why incumbents might not want to fight brand new seats for such a distant cause. But the President brooks no opposition so he put the word out. Result: they were all swept out after ten, fifteen, twenty years of yeoman service. That'll learn 'em.
Of course it's looking like Republicans everywhere will be swept out in the mid-terms so those long-serving Indianans will have made the supreme sacrifice for nothing. Or, looking at it another way, they would have lost their seats anyway.
But even CNN hailed it as triumph for Trump so no doubt it was. Meanwhile they are reporting a Pennsylvania Democrat senator will get a large amount of money from the presidential coffers if he caucuses with the Republicans in the new Senate. He is manfully resisting such base treachery.
'That's okay,' his blandishers are telling him, 'we only want you to vote for our guy on the very first vote--for Speaker of the Senate if it's 50-49 against us--then you can fuck off back to your mates.' He's thinking about it.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Accuracy is not a strong one for Wiley. I tend to rely on creative inventions.
Wiley theory is that Project Freedom was designed to show that with "the will", nations could escort their own ships from the strait. It was US leadership by example. The idea was to set the scene for the US armada to leave after having escorted their trapped US ships out. Team Trump then could announce mission accomplished and it was up to other nations to do the same. It could after all be done, they had just proved it.
We have all our ships out. Over to you other nations........
So what happened?
According to Iran on the same day 2 US flagged ships did escape, Iran claims to have fired upon US warships trying to sail into the strait.
So was this really planned as an escort mission along the strait like Earnest Will?
Even if the escorts had to retreat before they entered the strait, two of the five US flagged ships could have made a break for it anyway......or maybe they did not even realise that the escorts had been driven off, and they were no longer as planned being escorted. They were actually on their own.
Who knows.....
Fog of war, gives Wiley the chance to speculate.......ie mission atually went wrong, so only partly sucessful......3 US flagged ships left trapped.
Anyway Project Freedom now paused......
Card has been played.
Time for a rethink.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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If Trump is a 4D chess master, I would be surprised, it appears that he has no patience. Its all short termism, based on quick easy wins, or dramatic losses.
A distant blockade might have worked, but it would need to be kept going for monthes, and it appears that Trump was only persuaded on this strategy, when he thought that in just in a few days the Iranian pipelines, would explode. That was neat, he really liked that.
The problem was that reality then intruded, the Iranians it appears have lots of storage, so the pipes did not explode, and Trump will need to keep the blockade going for monthes, when in his own mind he could be invading Cuba or Greenland.
Unlike the Chinese, (Belt and Road) Trump has no long game.
Temperament wise Trump is much more suited to Snap than 4D chess.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Accuracy is not a strong one for Wiley. I tend to rely on creative inventions. |
Very AE of you.
| Wiley theory is that Project Freedom was designed to show that with "the will", nations could escort their own ships from the strait. It was US leadership by example. The idea was to set the scene for the US armada to leave after having escorted their trapped US ships out. Team Trump then could announce mission accomplished and it was up to other nations to do the same. It could after all be done, they had just proved it. |
If it is successful it will remove Iran's last lever. The truth is that while ships can't be guaranteed to be got through unscathed, if their crews are paid enough and the insurance is taken care of, a great many of them will.
| We have all our ships out. Over to you other nations........So what happened? According to Iran on the same day 2 US flagged ships did escape, Iran claims to have fired upon US warships trying to sail into the strait. So was this really planned as an escort mission along the strait like Earnest Will? |
I wouldn't have thought so. A mine clearing operation more likely.
| Even if the escorts had to retreat before they entered the strait, two of the five US flagged ships could have made a break for it anyway......or maybe they did not even realise that the escorts had been driven off, and they were no longer as planned being escorted. They were actually on their own. Who knows..... |
You make it sound a bit amateurish. The US Navy can be called many things, but amateurish is not one of them. Not at the operational level anyway.
| Fog of war, gives Wiley the chance to speculate.......ie mission atually went wrong, so only partly sucessful......3 US flagged ships left trapped. Anyway Project Freedom now paused...... Card has been played. Time for a rethink. |
I did think along the same lines. If it had been an unalloyed success it would have been trumpeted with hosannas across the seven seas. As it is, it seems to have been... shall we say... reported on a 'need to know' basis.
| If Trump is a 4D chess master, I would be surprised, it appears that he has no patience. Its all short termism, based on quick easy wins, or dramatic losses. |
He is either the worst person to be in charge of such a delicate operation or the best.
| A distant blockade might have worked, but it would need to be kept going for monthes |
It would have helped if the US/Israeli planners had thought of this obvious step on Day One of the war. However, if it is 'months', then Iran will win. If it isn't, Trump will win.
| and it appears that Trump was only persuaded on this strategy, when he thought that in just in a few days the Iranian pipelines, would explode. That was neat, he really liked that. |
Whoever dreamt that up didn't know the Iranians are the world masters of on-again/off-again oil production techniques because of sanctions. Though the Americans themselves are pretty good at it. Vast amounts of their oil industry gets switched on and off according to the price of West Texas Intermediate.
| The problem was that reality then intruded, the Iranians it appears have lots of storage, so the pipes did not explode, and Trump will need to keep the blockade going for monthes |
Even he knows by now it is a question of how long the Iranians can go with nothing coming in and nothing going out. Money more than oil. Hope more than LNG.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Those of you toddling off to vote today should watch this because it's what happened when people toddled off to vote for the last lot https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aUR-TQg99pg who were roughly the same as the present lot and will be uncannily similar to the next lot.
| Totalitarian dictatorship, you know it makes sense. |
Or introduce AE into the national curriculum. Except I think we're against national curriculums. Look, just do what my mum used to do, vote for the Liberals because she wasn't interested in politics. Though avoid the Lib Dems.
God, I wish I could join you, but I'm not allowed to because of my position. I'm like King Charles in that respect. I have to be seen to be above politics.
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Pete Jones
Site Admin
In: Virginia
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| Wile E. Coyote wrote: | | If Trump is a 4D chess master...Temperament wise Trump is much more suited to Snap than 4D chess. |
I can't help but read these discussions of Trump's acumen or lack thereof and think that it is all meaningless. The Pentagon has office after office of war planners who game out as many contingencies as they can (no doubt with the help of the best AI in the world). The discussion of Trump's moves always seem to imply a world where he is just doing stuff according to his whims.
What's much (much) more likely - an absolute dead certainty in my opinion - is that what is presented as chaotic decision-making, short-termism, and poor attempts at 1D checkers - is simply Trump's public persona doing what it always does: appear chaotic and seat-of-the-pants, giving all the commentators opportunity to paint him as a buffoon, while he's simply making decisions based on contingencies in accord with the plans the Pentagon has drawn up.
The fact that the US changes tactics and messaging much more quickly under Trump than it has under other presidents is better interpreted as evidence of Trump doing what he's always done: not signaling future moves, cutting bait earlier than most ("You're fired!"), and generally creating distractions with his personality that make everyone think he's mad/dumb/erratic/unserious/pick your insult. For all we know, he might just be willing to move from contingency plan to contingency plan more quickly than we know (or can tell from mostly hostile media reports).
Meanwhile, the ship of state moves on and the home-front (always his main concern) is being de-revolutionized by the Trump Court.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I agree with your major premise, that it will all work out well for America (and the world), but I disagree with your minor premise that Trump knows what he's doing, even if it is at others' behest.
For a start Trump's fortunes are not identical with America's fortunes (or even the Pentagon's fortunes). So Trump might have to willingly undertake policies that mean his may go down in order that America's go up. This does not seem at all likely.
Second it would require him to be the greatest actor of all time--we have all watched his... er... erratic behaviour.
Third it would require us to believe these Pentagon aces of yours are so on the ball they had worked everything out in the few hours after Netanyahu phoned head office with the news he was going to bomb the shit out of Iran.
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Pete Jones
Site Admin
In: Virginia
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | Third it would require us to believe these Pentagon aces of yours are so on the ball they had worked everything out in the few hours after Netanyahu phoned head office with the news he was going to bomb the shit out of Iran. |
It would require the opposite. It would merely require belief that organizations have missions and budgets and that they work on those missions continuously because that is their reason for existence.
A war against Iran has been a real possibility for at least 25 years, but no doubt the contingency planners have been doing their thing since 1979. They are on the ball as much as it is possible to be, no doubt, with an uninterrupted focus on Iran for decades. They didn't roll out of bed and scramble because of anything Netanyahu did.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Pete Williams wrote: | | It would require the opposite. It would merely require belief that organizations have missions and budgets and that they work on those missions continuously because that is their reason for existence. |
War theoreticians are quite low on the military totem pole. 'War plans' and 'war planning' are quite different things. The first is the job of a bunch of junior nerds writing and war gaming. The second is conducted by giant departments of senior officers superintending weapon procurement and conducting live fire exercises.
| A war against Iran has been a real possibility for at least 25 years |
For forty-five years actually when Jimmy Carter asked how to rescue the hostages from the Tehran embassy.
| but no doubt the contingency planners have been doing their thing since 1979 |
They came up with a complicated all-arms scheme (every branch of the services wanted to be in on it) which even us armchair strategists could see would never work. They would have to fight their way into Tehran and then fight their way out with the hostages!
It was a relief the helicopters malfunctioned fifty miles outside the city and everyone could go home safely. And the hostages were safe too in captivity. And remember, they had plenty of time to devise this farrago.
All they had to do, we said, was to put a task force outside the Hormuz Strait and say to the Iranians, "We'll let every ship through that's got a hostage on board." But that takes time, it isn't very 'military' and wouldn't come to fruition before Carter was up for re-election.
| They are on the ball as much as it is possible to be, no doubt, with an uninterrupted focus on Iran for decades. |
I forgot to mention, war plans are always mouldering away in a draw somewhere. They are marked A, B, C etc because they are always kept up to date but they are always the same plan. You always fight the last war until the next war shows they really were out of date.
| They didn't roll out of bed and scramble because of anything Netanyahu did. |
Well, I believe Marco Rubio. That's what he said they did.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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There are undoubted advantages to having a temperament like Trump, its not all bad. Would others have demanded and got the swift win, in Venezuela? Probably not.
The problem comes when the other side shows unexpected resilience, it looks to Wiley that either Trump gets his quick win, or he reverse ferrets.
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