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Mick Harper
Site Admin

In: London
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You might find out how the USA voted on the Security Council which is currently investigating the matter. (The Brit delegate was remarkably scathing.) They're going to have a hard job with this one.
No. Oh, all right then, yes.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin

In: London
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You had to feel sorry for President Zelensky. He was already at war with two superpowers, up against Putin and Trump, when who should come along but Xi Jinping's soldiers found loitering on the battlefield? Well, Ukraine, nobody said it was going to be easy leaving the good old USS of R.
Actually I don't know why anyone was even speculating about these 'Chinese passport-holding' PoW's. After Xi has made such a virtue out of not-supporting Russia with military aid I doubt he would send a PLA platoon to soil his 'look, ma, clean hands'.
These things always have to be carefully balanced. For instance, Putin would certainly go nuclear batshit crazy if ten thousand South Korean soldiers started invading his country.
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Boreades

In: finity and beyond
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It may be for parity.
Just as there are many NATO "advisers" in Ukraine.
Most NATO "advisers" stay as far west as they can, to keep away from frontline action. But some do wander too close and get caught up in actual hostilities.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin

In: London
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Please, Borry, don't be extraneous. They are not there to fight. There were, at the off, a few western volunteers but they generated so much hostile coverage in Russia about 'fascists in the Ukraine ranks' the practice has long been discontinued.
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Boreades

In: finity and beyond
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Mick Harper wrote: | Please, Borry, don't be extraneous. They are not there to fight. . |
You appear to have an unduly literal interpretation of what "fight" means.
NATO "advisors" may not be on the front lines. But they are certainly actively involved in the supplying of intel for targeting and aiming weapons. Without which many Ukrainian weapons could not be fired.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin

In: London
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Do not think, Borry, because I occasionally ignore your constant--nay, incessant--inability to see the wood for the trees, that I have agreed with you.
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Boreades

In: finity and beyond
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I would not expect you to agree with me. As much of the wood appears to originate in your own densely-woven mind, we have to chop down some trees to make the rest visible.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin

In: London
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Israel, we now learn, was about to take out Iran's nuclear facilities when President Trump asked them to stay their hand while he explored possibilities of jaw-jaw. But if they went nowhere, he intimated, the US would join Israel in a bombing campaign.
Now I quite understand standards have slipped since the days of heralds bearing ultimata but even so I did think you had to have some kind of casus belli before you were allowed to tear foreigners limb from limb on a wholesale basis. What we pedants call 'a reason'.
'We don't like you,' is not, many of us would argue, sufficient unto the purpose. Even in the playground, the school bully offered a bit more than this. I'm sure messrs Trump and Netanyahu pride themselves on being more grown-up.
So what exactly has Iran done to bring this proposed war upon their heads? It appears to be only their nuclear programme that is in the frame. All the other bits and bobs have been dealt with by tit-for-tat actions by one or other, mainly both, would-be assailants.
Those particular Iranian slates have not only been wiped clean, they have pretty much ceased to exist, being collateral damage from events in Gaza and Syria.
But nuclear-wise, the Iranians have jolly clean hands. They were unilaterally thrown out of the painfully negotiated agreement they made with the USA et al so, yes, they have edged closer to having 'the bomb' than they were before. But that wasn't their choice. Nor, it is agreed, will bombing the above-ground structures going to hold this up for, in one American expert's view, 'more than a month'.
To be honest, if I were an Iranian, I'd get that bomb made as quickly as possible. It appears to be the only way of escaping visitations from two of the world's more lethal air forces. Or at any rate giving them pause for thought.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Mick Harper wrote: |
To be honest, if I were an Iranian, I'd get that bomb made as quickly as possible. It appears to be the only way of escaping visitations from two of the world's more lethal air forces. Or at any rate giving them pause for thought. |
To be honest if the Shia have the bomb, the Sunnis simply must have one too. Saudi Arabia will be the first.
The Iranians, after years of suvcessfully using proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis to destabilise their neighbours, now face their own existential threat. It's not from Israel, or the US, it is from within its periphery. Persians only number about 50% of the population, mainly the central areas, in order to control the country the Persians have to control their periphery which means controlling the ethnic minorities around the edge. They do this by a sort of forward defence doctrine, hence the continual use of proxies into neighbouring countries. Not acting is simply not an option as they will lose the periphery, as the ethnic minorities always share strong cultural ties with co-ethnics in neighbouring states, and are continually plotting Iran's demise.
In short, I doubt Iran is going to survive, it's likely going to shrink.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin

In: London
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To be honest if the Shia have the bomb, the Sunnis simply must have one too. Saudi Arabia will be the first. |
To be honest, they will be the second after Pakistan.
The Iranians, after years of successfully using proxies Hamas, Hezbollah, Houthis to destabalise their neighbours, now face their own existential threat. It's not from Israel, or the US, it is from within its periphery. |
Not just the periphery. All the big cities are heaving with discontent.
Persians only number about 50% of the population. mainly the central areas, in order to control the country the Persians have to control their periphery which means controlling the ethnic minorities around the edge. They do this by a sort of forward defence doctrine, hence the continual use of proxies into neighbouring countries. |
It's been a problem since before Cyrus the Great but do go on...
Not acting is simply not an option as they will lose the periphery, as the ethnic minorities always share strong cultural ties with co-ethnics in neighbouring states, and are continually plotting Iran's demise. In short, I doubt Iran is going to survive, it's likely going to shrink. |
I can't see it. International boundaries are always the last to go. The mullah regime is likely to shrink though.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin

In: London
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I thought this brief extract from An Unreliable History of the Second World War might be topical
Stalin began Operation Iran by encouraging Azerbaijani separatists in northern Iran to rise up and demand union with their kith and kin in the Azerbaijan Soviet Socialist Republic. Or, as the rest of us would describe it, a large slice of Iran would be annexed by Russia. |
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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That's the spirit, we just need the Kurds and the Balochs on board and we already have them surrounded. In fact we conrol most of their natural resources.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin

In: London
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You have probably heard that India has a vast array of 'news channels'. I put it in quotes because they are all propaganda organs (more than ordinarily, that is), overwhelmingly favourable to Narendra Modi. Even the Times of India, which used to be 'the Times' of India has taken the government shilling to judge by its coverage of the Ukraine War.
Those unaware of India's position on the war (including me, they don't advertise it very much) might judge from the Times of India news channel's coverage yesterday
Putin celebrates Easter with huge Kursk Victory. 75,000 Ukraine troops killed. |
And there was us thinking there'd been a truce.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin

In: London
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One of the factors underlying the reduced growth rate of the IMF forecast was the terrorism. Chair, US/UK Economic Working Group 2018-19 on Newsnight |
Due to a combination of their accents and my cheap television set, I keep mis-hearing 'tariffs' as terrorism. Or am I? There's such a thing as higher voices.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin

In: London
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It takes a lot to surprise me when it comes to the Ukraine War, such is the stereotypical bish-bosh of it all, but news that a foreign army has turned up on the Ukraine side has. They are... wait for it... Columbians.
The next surprise was to hear that Columbia has the second largest army in South America. I'd vaguely thought they might be like Costa Rica, with no army at all, just a large amount of very well armed police.
Even more surprising was to hear they are highly motivated and rather efficient because of... wait for it... the war on drugs. Apparently, unlike American GI's in Vietnam, Columbian GI's relish wandering round the bush zapping and getting zapped.
Quite what their status is in Ukraine wasn't entirely clear (this is all from a YouTube I watched this morning so take everything I say with a pinch of snuff). They pay their own way, so they are not exactly mercenaries. But they get $3000 a month so they kinda are.
But from what I can gather they are mostly there for the fun of it, as well as the profit. Offing North Koreans is what they really get a kick out of. They have, the YouTube claimed, altered the balance of power over substantial stretches of the battle line. How much the North Koreans are getting every month for being offed has not been reported as far as I know.
Nor, and this is the most surprising aspect of all, has Putin had anything to say on the matter. Imagine the steam coming out of his ears if they had been French or American. Or South Korean.
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