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Global Warming (Geophysics)
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Ishmael


In: Toronto
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New study highlights the impact of two new marine gases on climate models’ accuracy


Mere detail. They have the big processes wrong. And everything big happens by big processes--which is another way of saying that everything big is actually small and we need simply alter the scale at which we analyze the process.

The solution is always simple. This is the first rule of Applied Epistemology.

Transpiration. Water-vapour. Wind. Three elements are all you need to make it all happens.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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An exquisite confirmation of my hydrology model (whose name I have forgotten as usual)

Deforestation is resulting in reduced rainfall across large parts of the tropics, according to new research.
People living in tropical forest communities have often complained that the climate gets hotter and drier once trees are cleared but until now, scientists have not been able to identify a clear link between the loss of tree cover and a decline in rainfall.

Not surprising since they believe rainfall comes from the ocean.

A research team at the University of Leeds combined satellite data of deforestation and rainfall to show that the loss of tree cover in the tropics over the last 14 years was associated with reductions in rainfall. They estimate that by the end of the century, if the rate of deforestation in the Congo was to continue, rainfall in the region could be reduced by between 8% and 12%, with major impacts on biodiversity and farming, and could threaten the viability of the Congo forests, which are among the world's largest stores of carbon.

Not to mention Madagascar and Australia.

Callum Smith, a doctoral researcher in the School of Earth and Environment at Leeds and the lead author in the study, said the investigation provides "compelling evidence" to protect forests from uncontrolled clearing. He added, "Tropical forests play a critical role in the hydrological cycle through helping to maintain local and regional rainfall patterns. The reduction in rainfall caused by tropical deforestation will impact people living nearby through increased water scarcity and depressed crop yields.

Notice he doesn't say why. He can't, he believes it all came from the Atlantic and no water molecule I have spoken to lately says they cared whether they were dropping on trees or not.

"Tropical forests themselves rely on moisture to survive and remaining areas of forest will be impacted by a drier climate."
The research paper, "Tropical deforestation causes large reductions in observed precipitation," is published today (Wed, March 1) in the journal Nature.

Go on, son, state a truism.

The researchers looked at the impact of forest loss in three areas of the tropics—the Amazon, Congo and Southeast Asia—which have all experienced rapid land-use changes. The study involved analysis of satellite observations from 2003 to 2017, to identify locations where forests had been cleared. Rainfall data in these areas, also measured by satellites, was compared to rainfall from nearby locations where forests had not been lost.

Actually, this would destroy our thesis if they showed a difference. Let's see if they do...

The study revealed that tropical forest loss caused reductions in rainfall throughout the year, including in the dry season when any further drying will have the biggest ramifications on plant and animal ecosystems. The greatest absolute decline in precipitation was seen in the wet season with up to a 0.6 mm a month reduction in rainfall for every percentage point loss of forest cover.

No, they didn't. Careful ignoral?

It is believed the loss of tree cover disrupts the process where moisture from leaves—through a mechanism called evapotranspiration—is returned to the atmosphere where it eventually forms rain clouds.

They've got it! The whole enchilada. I'll spare you the rest which goes on to show how vital their work is. Or as we say, "More research is needed!" Though not "More examination of what you already believe is needed."
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Ishmael


In: Toronto
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Mick Harper wrote:
An exquisite confirmation of my hydrology model (whose name I have forgotten as usual)


You originally called it OGRE: Overall Greenery Average. But I've retitled it in the book: GAWD. Greenery Addition Weighted Downwind (it was always, in fact, not an average but an addition).
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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I've been chatting about El Nino lately in relation to Californian droughts and suchlike but I've never actually come to grips with what it is. I knew it was an ocean current but not much more. I might have even got that wrong, I decided, after reading this from medium

Terrifying New Study Finds That Ocean Currents Will Soon Collapse
Brace yourselves for a globe-shaking marine ecological disaster. Will Lockett·

A recent study, which focused more on the Antarctic portion of these currents,
found that global ocean currents could collapse in only 30 years!


https://medium.com/predict/terrifying-new-study-finds-that-ocean-currents-will-soon-collapse-adf995d5471

As you know I take little notice of these things. They'll let me know if they turn out to have substance, but I was intrigued to be given a (presumably) up-to-date map of the ocean currents. I couldn't make out El Nino so it can't be one of the important ones. Unless it's the one way out in the Pacific briny. In which case it must be truly awesome in terms of effect-from-a-distance. If so I expect we'll be hearing about the other ones soon when it comes to explaining waterless herds in the Sahel and Mongolia.

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Ishmael


In: Toronto
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I do not understand "El Nino" to be an ocean current. I understand it to be a periodic weather event associated with Christmas Time. It is alleged to result of multiple contributing factors.

That is my understanding.
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Mick Harper
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One gets used to weather phenomena of eye-popping novelty but news that Spain is 'enjoying' its hottest (30 decrees C) December on record is a record.
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