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National Statistics (Politics)
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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The world'll get along if they pack up and go home

The answer to this is, according to the World Policeman and every other variety of do-gooder, "Yes, but at what cost?" The general rule at the moment is "The worse the regime, the worse the consequences of changing it via outside intervention." The current examples being Afghanistan, Syria and Libya. But it only became a rule because of the success of previous applications of the same rule starting with Germany and Japan. And then only if the intervener-in-chief was the USA. Woe betide anybody who exchanged their previous government with one selected for them by the Soviet Union. As I say, it's all very imponderable. Even the provisional AE Rule 'Intervention is a mug's game' is only provisional.

Probably the AE Rule will turn out to be "A rule only works until it is identified as a rule" which we previously discovered applies to all sorts of things starting, if memory serves, with El Nino.
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Grant



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But is the problem that we stage these interventions but never push them 100%
If we had chucked a few nukes at Afghanistan they might have realised we were being serious and given up the fight.
By now the Afghans might be on the way to a Japan-style economic recovery
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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If we'd have allowed the Iranians to have nukes they'd have done it for us. They hate the Taliban and all its works. Instead we allowed the Pakistanis to have nukes but they turned out to be a bunch of Taliban groupies.
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Mick Harper
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By now the Afghans might be on the way to a Japan-style economic recovery

I doubt it. They are Indo-Europeans and when have Indo-Europeans ever shown any talent in this area? Lately.
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Mick Harper
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The news (from Newsnight, last night) that the West Midlands has significantly higher infant mortality than the rest of the country and that this was down to cousin-marriage in South Asian communities did not quite deliver the correct message. It's all very well recognising the problem and going on about the need for education and so forth (i.e. the usual) but it should also have mentioned that it's sort of a non-problem, and it's sort of an insoluble problem, and it's sort of a soluble problem with a problematic solution. All rolled into one.

First off, it's tiny. We're talking about an extra one/two/three babies per thousand and, the programme assured us, cousin-marriage is in decline anyway. Not so tiny as to be well worth concerning ourselves with but it was the what-to-do-about-it bit that had me worried. If you want to marry your cousin that's fine by me and by everyone else. Don't, for heaven's sake, not do it, because for you personally the risk is 'tiny'. If you want to do extra screening and whatnot, that's fine by me and everyone else too. We hope you do. But you're going to have to abort if the tests come out wrong -- otherwise the whole thing will have been a complete waste of time. Again that's fine by me, but is it fine by you and everyone else in your community?

It just may be one of those problems that really is best left with a shrug. As AE teaches us: to do nothing is to do something.
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Alfred Wegener


In: Newcastle upon Tyne
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Most recent report is here

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/515800/InfantMortalityInTheWestMidlandsFinal.pdf
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Alfred Wegener


In: Newcastle upon Tyne
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Makes for interesting reading. As for a solution, I don't think that this is amenable to reason or logic, as you imply, Mick.
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Chad


In: Ramsbottom
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Mortality is a non-problem. By its very nature mortality provides its own solution... Morbidity is the bigger issue.

My wife works with ‘special needs’ kids, in a mainstream school and the number of ‘ethnic minority’ pupils with some form of disability, is extremely disproportionate. (She puts this down to cousin-marriage.)

This is an expensive problem to deal with, at an individual level... but in the grand scheme of things, careful ignoral is probably the best course of action.

(The disproportionality shouldn’t last more than a couple of generations.)
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Mick Harper
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What I'm really talking about is what might be called 'internal colonialism'. The talking heads were all European middle class professionals (including the hyper-modern Asian woman academic who was doing the grunt work) and the solutions they were proffering were, as I said 'the usual'. But people who routinely marry their cousins are in arranged marriages and are most definitely not European (even though many of them would be middle class professionals).

I don't actually know the attitude to abortion (even scanning for birth defects) in such a traditional society but I'm pretty sure when people talk about 'education' they are really saying, "For goodness sake, you're not in the Punjab now." And, for better or worse, they are gradually not being so. Chad says 'a generation or two' but I wonder. It's already been longer than that.
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Mick Harper
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the number of ‘ethnic minority’ pupils with some form of disability, is extremely disproportionate. (She puts this down to cousin-marriage.)

But what of schizophrenia (et al) among West Indians where cousin marriage is unheard of? Not to mention West Indians in Lancashire mill towns. We'll probably muddle through with a) a bit more funding and b) a bit less emphasis on racist attitudes among white health care professionals (et al). Although AE says not to ignore the inherent possibilities in less funding and more flagellation of racists.
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Chad


In: Ramsbottom
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Chad says 'a generation or two' but I wonder. It's already been longer than that.

Appears to be more prevalent amongst recent immigrants.

But what of schizophrenia (et al) among West Indians where cousin marriage is unheard of?

Epigenetic changes brought about by generations of cannabis consumption.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Appears to be more prevalent amongst recent immigrants.

Well, it would be, wouldn't it? But since -- officially at any rate -- immigration from these parts to these parts has been declining vertiginously this should not be an important factor. Unless the cousins are being imported...

Epigenetic changes brought about by generations of cannabis consumption.

You must have been talking to Ian Botham. Ironic though if Larmarkism finally triumphs due to this finding. A case of 'Beagle out, Windrush in'.
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Chad


In: Ramsbottom
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Epigenetic changes brought about by generations of cannabis consumption.

Half-jokingly pulled that one out of the air... Tickled to bits when I found supporting evidence.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6210395/
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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I accuse you of recovered memory syndrome. But if not, congratulations. Too recent though to account for the present situation.
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Chad


In: Ramsbottom
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I accuse you of recovered memory syndrome.

I wouldn't disagree with that possibility.

I read a lot about epigenetics a while ago (but I don't remember it touching on subject of epigenetically acquired mental illness) and although I was aware of the link between cannabis and schizophrenia, it wasn't in the context of epigenetics.

I think my brain just stitched the two together... but memory is a funny thing.
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