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Boreades


In: finity and beyond
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Mick Harper wrote:
I do not follow your logic. Since to be old is the future of the young surely it makes sense for the young to allow the old to make the decisions on their behalf.


M'Lady Boreades and I have tried that tactic on the Boreadettes. Like investing their inheritances in the Wine Futures market. Some might already know just how much wine sampling is required to be able to decide what wines have a future. And what a sacrifice it is. See Jilly Goolden. Sadly, they seem to think we are just useless sozzled old fools, way past our best-before dates.

But they have promised to find a nice home for us, fully funded by the next government. We just have to sign some paperwork, something about transferring the Château Boreades title deeds to them. Anything for a quiet life.
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Boreades


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Where's the AEL Economic Forecasting Institute based these days?

The forecasting model is quite simple. Take whatever the Treasury publish as an "economic experts" forecast and then we forecast the opposite.

Two years ago:

Britain to enter recession with 500,000 UK jobs lost if it left EU, new Treasury analysis shows

This paper focuses on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow. A vote to leave would represent an immediate and profound shock to our economy. That shock would push our economy into a recession and lead to an increase in unemployment of around 500,000, GDP would be 3.6% smaller, average real wages would be lower.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/britain-to-enter-recession-with-500000-uk-jobs-lost-if-it-left-eu-new-treasury-analysis-shows


Now:

Official ONS figures released today, two years after the vote to Leave, reveal that UK unemployment fell by 65,000 to 1.36 million in three months to June, taking it to the lowest level for more than 40 years. Wages are up by 2.7%, youth unemployment is at its lowest since records began, and productivity has seen its biggest rise since 2016, and 104,000 fewer people are on zero hours contracts .

https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/bulletins/uklabourmarket/latest


Money for old rope?
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Mick Harper
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This is the old AE heresy, judging by results. In the first place, predictions about the effects of Brexit can hardly be factored in because Brexit has not actually taken place. Consequences generally follow actions. The insertion of the words 'planning for' does not substantially affect this.

But now we come to lags-and-leads which in economic activity can be truly awesome. Two years would be a minimum but ten years is not unusual. A hundred would be Chou en Lai's preference. We might at best say that 'planning for' is just about getting reflected in the figures though what everyone is planning for is anybody's guess since nobody yet knows.

This situation is currently being exploited by Victor Trump(er) who is claiming that record stock market figures, full employment and unusually high growth rates is down to him when this is a routine climax when coming out of recession, and is entirely down to Obama (though not to anything he actually did). No doubt the shine will start to come off just after Trump is impeached, entitling him to say, "I told you so."
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Boreades


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Mick Harper wrote:
This is the old AE heresy, judging by results. In the first place, predictions about the effects of Brexit can hardly be factored in because Brexit has not actually taken place.


Oops, you've just fallen at the first hurdle. Their forecast wasn't about what happens after Brexit. It was before Brexit.

This paper focuses on the immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow.


The key phrase is "immediate economic impact of a vote to leave and the two years that follow.". Regardless of when Brexit happens. If it ever does.

I've been checking with the various members and outlaws of Clan Boreades that are resident on the EU mainland (especially France). They are making no plans to move back. Thank goodness for that. We still need somewhere to go to collect new stock for the Chateau Boreades strategic wine reserves.
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Ishmael


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Mick Harper wrote:
This situation...is entirely down to Obama (though not to anything he actually did). No doubt the shine will start to come off just after Trump is impeached, entitling him to say, "I told you so."


Yes. Obama's amazing economic miracle. Most amazing in how he managed to time its occurrence perfectly with his exit from office.
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Ishmael


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Another Harperiean revelation: Credit for the Nazi economic miracle was, of course, entirely due to the Wiemar Republic.
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Mick Harper
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I was not directly addressing you, Boreades, just the fact that it is futile predicting anything economically. Certainly within two years, or indeed two years out. However, since you mention it, this is the first time in my experience that economists have attempted to predict what people will predict, if you see what I mean. Of course AE-ists will simply observe that Remainers unanimously predicted meltdown and Brexiteers unanimously predicted halcyon days and themselves apply the Truth is Always Boring rule and say "Probably not much but could go either way." Or in the prediction prediction aspect "The thought of Brexit might have had a measurable effect but one can't say even in hindsight that it was plus or minus."

Ishmael is as usual imbecilic when it comes to Obama/Trump and thought-provoking when they are not present. I will reflect on the handover from Weimar/Obama to Hitler/Trump and report back.
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Alfred Wegener


In: Newcastle upon Tyne
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Looking at the data from a run chart perspective the figures are part of a common cause variation pattern and do not represent any sort of special cause variation.
An SPC chart which I have built confirms this.
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Mick Harper
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Could you expand on this, Alf? Beginning with what an SPC is. SPG was a pet rodent in The Young Ones but presumably not related.
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Alfred Wegener


In: Newcastle upon Tyne
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Gladly Mick,

Statistical process control charts (SPCs) are a very useful method of analysing quantitative runs of data to look for actual trends.

They start with a look at all your data to create a mean. This is the central line around which all data is measured.

You then find the standard deviation and use this to create two boundaries - the upper control limit and the lower control limit which are respectively 3 sigma (standard deviations) above and below the mean.

Any data points in your collection of information which is within these boundaries is by definition 'common cause variation'. In other words nothing special to write home about and not of statistical significance. Worrying about such variation is known as spuddling (good word not often used).

Any variation which is outwith the lower or upper limits of control is deemed 'special cause variation' as it is statistically significant.

The data provided (and some more recent stuff that I looked at from ONS on voter registration rates) provided a SPC, which showed common cause variation only and therefore nothing significant.

A seemingly slightly higher rate of 6% in voter registration may, at first glance, look significant but ultimately when exposed to a more rigorous analysis is merely common cause variation.

I hope that this helps.

Fascinating origins to this work by a chap called Demming who helped the Japanese car manufacturing industry with his six sigma approach after the second world war and ultimately led to their pre-eminence in this field.

Cheers
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Alfred Wegener


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Yes, SPG was a favourite of mine too - not related.
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Mick Harper
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Taking all post-war national car manufacturing industries can you tell us when each adopted a six sigma approach (or equivalent) and with what effect? If nobody else adopted it, is there any way of identifying its effect on the Japanese car manufacturing industry?

Or, alternatively, explain why one car manufacturing company would let a competitor into the secret of its own success?
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Alfred Wegener


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The first adoptees were Toyota who employed this methodology. It has been described variously as lean, six sigma and Kaizen.

Interestingly too - Toyota have been keen to create an industry out of their approach - the NHS and other large organisations have also used this thinking to advance clinical quality improvements.

In terms of measurable benefits for the car industry I am not able to provide a specific evidence base but there is lots out there in cyberspace which gives more detail

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toyota_Production_System


Mostly it appears to be minimising waste and improving efficiency.
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Mick Harper
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The problem with all these post hoc explanations is that they attempt to answer the one great imponderable -- why things take off here but not there. Everything seems to work. Then a bit later nothing seems to work. Thus in Japan, in apparently the worse possible circumstances (or, as some argue, because of being in the worst possible circumstances) miracles are wrought. Then, quite suddenly, around 1990, nothing in Japan seemed to work, try as they might to ring the changes.

In Great Power Systems Analysis we call this latter Sick Man Syndrome. But when the runes are right the opposite happens and someone comes out of nowhere to dominate the system (the Hegemon Power). It is so unpredictable that sometimes it is the Sick Man!

Not that I am saying your account is untrue. If only we knew that much...
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Mick Harper
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and someone comes out of nowhere to dominate the system (the Hegemon Power)

Someone should remind the Yanks that they had no effect on the outcome of the Second World War. The Russians would have beaten the Germans on their own (1941-5) and they did beat the Japanese on their own in 1945. The world'll get along if they pack up and go home.
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