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Nigel Farage for Prime Minister (Politics)
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Britanicus


In: The West Country
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As we are coming up to a momentous election for real democracy, re:the coming of a national party to challenge the status quo, should we be considering a rout of support for the traditional " Big Three".

Why would it not be possible after UKIP gets over 50% of the Euro vote and first in that ballot, for it to go on to make large gains in the 2015 election, enough for Farage to be crowned Prime Minister.

All it takes is a radical change of mind from the English voters and for half of the voters who normally do not vote to get off their backsides and vote UKIP for an election landslide to happen.

Britanicus.
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Mick Harper
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I have noticed that people who use terms like 'real democracy' usually mean that their own favoured party happens to be in some sort of temporary ascendancy. Apparently, at all other times, the Forces of Evil keep this party down. Let us however look at what is the 'real' democratic significance of the rise of UKIP:

1. The 'party of protest' always rises to staggering heights in mid-term. Traditionally it is the Liberals who win by-election after by-election with astonishing swings, (the Social Democrats also 'took the lead' once in the early eighties). With the Liberals in government for the first time, another party of protest has had to be pressed into service. As it happens, UKIP.

2. The reason it was UKIP rather than, for instance the Greens or the BNP, is because they espouse a single policy -- leaving the EU -- which is currently popular, and linked it with a perennially popular policy -- controlling immigration. The Tories will simply shift ground to mop up these aspirations in time for the General Election, as they always do. That's why they're the oldest extant political party in the world.

3. Euro-elections are themselves a protest vote since nobody gives a monkeys who their Euro-MP is, so UKIP will either win or come a close second.

4. In every General Election the protest-vote party has collapsed. A party-of-protest has never, NEVER, achieved a row of beans at a General Election.

5. Therefore all sensible AE-ists predict that not a single UKIP member of parliament will be elected in 2015. This is irrespective of whether the AE-ist happens to like UKIP or not.
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Boreades


In: finity and beyond
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UKIP? who they?

When I were a lad (ee by gum) we had Proper Protest Parties. Like the Monster Raving Looney Party. Which reached a political peak when their candidate was elected to those well-known hotbeds of British politics, East Devon District Council and Sidmouth Town Council.

Sadly, now in decline, the MRLP is trying to revive its fortunes with its own single-issue manifesto. They say that "We are considering bringing out our Non-Halal Manifesto. With this new manicfesto, we get slaughtered at every election and don't have a prayer."

The MRLP and its various factions have at times held seats in Devon, Scotland and the Isle of Sheppey, and come close in Bootle, Monmouth. So there may well be a connection to The Megalithic Empire. Or its authors.
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Hatty
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In: Berkshire
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The MRLP and its various factions have at times held seats in Devon, Scotland and the Isle of Sheppey, and come close in Bootle, Monmouth. So there may well be a connection to The Megalithic Empire.

They do seem distant enough to carry on regardless of who's sitting in Whitehall, perhaps the Megalithic network has broken down in the meantime.

Or its authors.

Whaddya mean by Party? Not in the AE book.
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Britanicus


In: The West Country
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Good post Mick,

However we have this time a revolution in people's mindset, it is largely Conservatives, ex and present supporters who are leading support for UKIP, and it is purely Nigel Farage who is the cause of it, not withstanding the three stooges/clowns heading the three main parties.

I forecast UKIP winning up to 40 parliamentary seats in May 2015, if and only if, UKIP wins over 50% of the coming Euro vote.

I will be standing in the 2015 election.

Britanicus.
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Boreades


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I hope you can get the Campaign Bus crew to improve their "spatial awareness" skills.



The juxtaposition of "UKIP" and "DISABLED" might be described as sub-optimal marketing.
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Mick Harper
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I forecast UKIP winning up to 40 parliamentary seats in May 2015, if and only if, UKIP wins over 50% of the coming Euro vote.

A safe prediction since no party has ever gained 50% of a national vote. The Greens won a single seat last time out so a handful of UKIP successes cannot absolutely be ruled out -- probably in East London and Lancashire milltowns where the BNP occasionally win local election seats on a biggish scale.

Of course, one 'protest vote' party did go on to geater things, the Labour Party in the years 1900 to 1924, so one mustn't entirely ignore the possibility of a Grand Re-Ordering in favour of UKIP (see The Strange Death of Liberal England for the details).

PS There will in any case be a Grand Re-ordering should Scotland (and its forty Labour seats) go permanently AWOL.
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Britanicus


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To Mick Harper

Just so Mick and that is why I said a 50% share of the vote is needed for a game changer within British politics, as we as a race are very hidebound in our voting habits and would rather not vote at all than vote for a radical change.

Time for people to vote for the honest little man sticking his head above the parapet, which they failed to do in 2010.

Have you ever considered standing in a general election Mick?

I have a few ideas on what further posters might ram home the message for change in this great country of ours, a country that everyone in the world wants to come to work and in which uniquely our laws allow anyone to work here and our firms actively to encourage foreigners to work for them.

Not so in the land of the free, the USA.

Britanicus.
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Britanicus


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To Mick Harper.

I shall with others be going across the border towards Alec Salmon's constituency to help him with his campaign for a free Scotland in a few months, be glad to see the back of them.

It will do the Scottish the world of good to stand on their own feet, pay for everything themselves and stop whingeing about the Poms all the time.

I have no doubt the Scottish are more than capable of going it alone.

Just an observation Mick, check on how many English born are sitting as MP's in the Scottish parliament and how many Scottish born in Westminster. I'd be surprised if you find ONE English born up North.

Britanicus
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Mick Harper
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One of the principles of Applied Epistemology is that life is a good deal more humdrum than commentators (who have to think of things to say) suppose. Take the recent (May 2014) Local and European elections. Everyone keeps saying, "It's a political earthquake" (because UKIP won). AE-ists by contrast say, "Move along, nothing to see here."

So let me make a confident forecast about the General Election due in May 2015. The outcome will be the same as the May 2010 General Election with the following minor adjustments:
1. The Lib Dems, having been in government, will lose that part of their natural support which used to be a 'protest vote', so they will get about 10%
2. The Tories will marginally increase their vote and, because of the LibDem slippage, will win sufficiently more seats to form a normal majority single-party government.
3. The Labour Party will get the usual Opposition Vote translating into c 200-250 seats.
4. UKIP will get the old protest/Lib Dem vote (ie c 10 - 20%) but because they lack the LibDem strength either in the Celtic fringe or previously successful local government areas, they will win probably no seats or possibly a handful.
5. All the other minority parties will win their usual seats.

You heard it first here.
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Britanicus


In: The West Country
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To Mick Harper

Your last post regarding UKIP in the election May 2015 is spot on. We could be twins regarding the likely outcome next year, unless a good proportion of the normal "don't vote" people come out of the woodwork to vote for Nigel Farage, which I think is highly unlikely.

It is possible that most of the UKIP Tory voters return to the party to stop Miliband becoming PM, then Cameron could get a landslide victory on par with the best of Thatcher's era. One thing is certain, a Conservative victory with a working majority.

Labour need to dump Miliband very very quickly and elect a proper Blair type leader if they are to stop a runaway Tory victory.

I would put UKIP on the 10 to 15% range, certainly no higher, probably nearer 10% than the upper 15%, let me predict 12%.

My local area gave the Conservatives 37%, the same as in the 2010 election and all 8 Tory councillors got re-elected. Both the Labour and Lib-Dem share went down, also no UKIP wins.

I predict my local Eton educated Tory MP will double his majority to over 7,000 next year.

Who do you think Labour should install as a new leader Mick?

Britanicus
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Mick Harper
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He's far too Jewish for the British electorate. They should have chosen his brother.
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Britanicus


In: The West Country
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Mick Harper wrote:
He's far too Jewish for the British electorate. They should have chosen his brother.


He is just a geek Mick, a weirdo and should never have been put in as leader in the first place. Very very weak and gormless, worse than even Michael Foot.

As to his Jewishness that is not a problem.

Miliband said he was far more intelligent than Cameron, well if he is reading this he should for the sake of his party and country step down with immediate effect because no one likes or respects him and he is leading the Labour party to certain defeat and ruin. Let him use his so called intelligence to work out what is really wrong with his party at the moment......himself. Get rid of Ed Balls too.

Labour should have been romping home by now.

Britanicus
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Mick Harper
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You have no understanding of the British system of swings-and-roundabouts, Britanicus. The vote never moves quickly so after a long period of Labour rule (1997 - 2010) a small Tory majority (or a small Tory minority) is all that is possible, followed in the next election by a substantial Tory majority. After that, the swing will continue in a Tory direction or start swinging back (to a small Labour majority).

Of course the pendulum might swing back earlier and a small Tory minority might be followed by a small Labour one and Milliband will become PM either alone or with Clegg in coalition.

The identity of the Leaders is more or less immaterial in these matters. New Leaders of the Opposition (ie those who have not previously been Prime Minister) are routinely described as weak, disastrous, 'must be replaced' etc etc eg Heath, Thatcher, Foot, Kinnock. It's mainly a a matter of timing on the pendulum cycle. If you happen to be ahead, you are hailed as a Great Leader.
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Britanicus


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To Mick Harper

Well the pendulum is definitely going the Conservative way Mick. It is odd how during the last three or so decades the opposition party has been so weak for the vast majority of time, making the job of the ruling party so much easier than should have been the case in a democratic system. Foot-Kinnock-Hague-Duncan Smith-Howard and now Miliband all weak leaders of their parties.

It seems strong leaders get the goods on election day, with the exception being Cameron ( weak ) who only half won and had to scramble for a partner to rule the roost.

Are you happy to be ruled by Cameron for the next 15 or so years or even longer?

Britanicus
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