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Politics, The Final Frontier (Politics)
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Mick Harper
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I agree. The old dog is playing a blinder. One hopes this is because he has a proper regard for the (limited) stakes we are all playing for rather than indolence. Even the sanctions are more a Eurofroth than an Americano. You can tell how many coffees I have had today.
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Grant



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The old dog is actually destroying the old world order which has enabled all of us in the West to live way beyond our means for the last fifty years. In ten years time the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency and goodness knows how we’ll get by.
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Mick Harper
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The old dog is actually destroying the old world order

The old dog has to contend with the fact that the old world order has already been destroyed.

which has enabled all of us in the West to live way beyond our means for the last fifty years.

Or less than our means because it has cost us an arm and a leg keeping the old world order going.

In ten years time the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency and goodness knows how we’ll get by.

When the British pound was no longer the world's reserve currency we found it didn't make a lot of difference.
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Mick Harper
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Brecon Beacons National Park to be renamed in response to climate change
Bannau Brycheiniog National Park says the change is an "organisational" one which will "better reflect the park and the world we live in today".

I used to live in the Brecon Beacons so I take a personal interest in this. The official rationale is that 'Beacon' has undesirable fire associations in an era of global warming but since Bannau Brycheiniog is a literal translation of Brecon Beacons this seems an insult to Welsh-speakers.

Not that there are any Welsh-speakers in the Brecon Beacons, an area given over entirely to army training grounds, second homes and English-speaking Welsh natives. So when they say it's 'organisational' they are speaking nothing less than the truth. They are antsy about accusations of being politically incorrect. I should know, I used to live in the Bannau Brycheiniog.
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Wile E. Coyote


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Grant wrote:
The old dog is actually destroying the old world order which has enabled all of us in the West to live way beyond our means for the last fifty years. In ten years time the US dollar will no longer be the world’s reserve currency and goodness knows how we’ll get by.


Well I can't see the Euro (the second largest) taking over. The yuan might make some progress with rogue states like Russia. Please, please let this happen. They will manage Russia so much better than the US or Europe.
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Mick Harper
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And then who's going to manage China, pray?
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Wile E. Coyote


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The question is does the west want the Rusians in the tent or out. They had the chance of 3-5 % growth , supplying Europe with gas etc, their young people liked it but their politicians opted to break the system. We can't change it, they will go for China. Let them. They reckon that they can achieve more than 3-5 % growth with China, I really don't think so, China currently takes their oil and gas at a price less than Europe did (no competition). When Russia gets territorial ambitions, in Europe, China will control them.

The west gains by not having a nation like Russia in the tent.
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Mick Harper
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Short term, I agree with this analysis and recommendation. The long term? Well, China's going to be a handful without having Russia as her lapdog so I'm not so sure. Are we relying on India?

Did you catch the piece on Newsnight about the Welsh semiconductor chip factory? The government is demanding the Dutch owners divest 'cos they're owned by the Chinese. Since the Dutch bought it because it was losing money and will demand all the money they've pumped in back, the factory will prolly close. Security grounds, they said, but what ye olde worlde basic silicon wafers have to do with national security nobody could say.

Then Mr Silicon Chip UK was roused from his New Zealand bed to tell a clearly startled Victoria Derbyshire, "No, the UK has got no chance in any chip future. It could have had a part-share if it had stayed in the EU but now, no chance, sorry." She replied, "According to a Mr Wiley, we should throw in our lot with the Chinese." Later it was disclosed that it was in fact a Mr Wi-Lee.
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Wile E. Coyote


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"Hi Mr Silicon Chip"

"Hi Wiles"

"Where does silicon come from?"

"Silicone is mined across the world with the US, South Korea, Germany and Japan being the biggest four exporters Wiley".

"Not really a lot of dependence on China or Europe then".

"No, Wiles"

"So who dominates the supply chain?"

"The US, Japan, Europe, Taiwan and South Korea currently account for 92% of the microchip supply chain."

"So not China then."

"No. China comes in about 6%."

"So Britain is totally stuffed then?"

"Yes, unless it was still part of the EU"
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Wile E. Coyote


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Wiley is a bit confused, we don't need China. We need to be able to buy chips from US, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan in the event that the Germans decide to prioritise themselves and Europe? We need to partner up our R and D and, err, financial skills with US, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan in the event that the Europeans don't want our skills.
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Mick Harper
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This bloke on Newsnight, Hermann Hauser, was pretty much single-handedly responsible for the whole British contribution (after the glory days) being behind both Acorn computers and ARM chips. He was magisterially sorrowful about our prospects. He also pointed out that our present anti-China policy is totally counterproductive because it will force China to develop its own and it won't even have to take over Taiwan to dominate the industry.

Wiley wrote:
We need to be able to buy chips from US, Japan, South Korea or Taiwan

Now we've left the EU we were supposed to be free to go where e're we e'red but it seems we have reverted to pre-EU rather than become post-EU. That is the trouble when a country has a left that is even more reactionary than the right -- every leap forward is a lurch into the past. If only Jeremy had won and led us out. No, wait, he wants to go even further back, to nineteenth century socialism... well, anyway, imagine a Brexit Yvette Cooper.
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Grant



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The Russians wanted the 3 to 5% growth supplying Europe with gas, but the US felt so threatened they encouraged that shitty little country Ukraine to attack Russians in the Donbas. When the Russians started winning the ensuing war Biden allowed a terrorist attack on the Russian pipelines.
All this has done is drive Russia into the arms of the Chinese. So now, thanks to Biden’s controllers, the world’s most important supplier of food and raw materials is linked arm in arm with the world’s biggest economy.
This has been the greatest foreign policy mistake in history.
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Mick Harper
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Certainly top three in the last five years.
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Wile E. Coyote


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The Russians and the Chinese have had friendly realtions since the late '90s. They have regularly signed treaties of friendship and co-operation since 2001. They also regularly fall out, such is the nature of relationships. I am at a loss to see how Biden is any more responsible than any other recent President, for example you could, as some did, blame Trump, e.g. for starting a trade war with China. Off went Xi to shake Putin's hand and complain about nasty America. Much liberal hand-wringing about driving Russia and China together, along with worry about the Yuan taking over.
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Mick Harper
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The Americans keep accusing China of planning to send weapons to Russia and China keeps on insisting it isn't going to. So far the Chinese are keeping to their word and would look exceedingly foolish if they didn't.

The current relationship goes back to 1950 when Mao went to Moscow as a supplicant and returned as a bemused supplicant. Stalin had been backing Chang Kai-Shek up till that time having a fair idea what China + Communism would mean for Russia. And he was right because war kept breaking out in the sixties along the borders just as it had between Russia and Japan in the thirties. The two have been nervous neighbours but tactical allies against all-comers ever since.

Despite Asia being the roomiest of continents, there is not room for two great powers when it comes to the Great Game.
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