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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The LBGT community in Poland have an interesting decision to make re the Gay Free Zones now covering a third of their country. (Actually places where the local council deprecates what they term 'gay propaganda', kinda Clause 28-lite.) They can either fight or they can keep their heads down. My analysis of the situation is that the better policy would be the latter but, of course, there is not the slightest chance of that.
Why is that everyone decides the best policy always happens to be the one they personally enjoy the most? I suppose though it demonstrates that LBGT people are just like the rest of us. I'll pass the news on to the Poles.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Greece/Turkey border -- President of Red Cross/Red Crescent condemns both sides for using refugees as political pawns |
Dear Mr Red Cross/Red Crescent
They are not for the most part refugees, even by your own very generous definition, and while Turkey has explicitly said it is using them as political pawns (to get concessions from the EU), it cannot be said, using anyone's most generous definition, that Greece is using them as political pawns. It is just not letting them in.
Yours faithfully
M J Harper
"I'm sorry, Sir, all these papers appear to be crude forgeries, so we're putting you back on the plane."
"You're just treating me as a political pawn."
"Yes, sir. Sorry, sir."
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Wiles reckons that the homeless and the Refugee (stateless) are the same theoretical problem.
1) Some liberal folks like them, but funnily enough not in their "house", neighborhood, country.
2) Some conservatives like to think these these are lifestyle or fake problems, (so the homeless have homes, the refugess are economic migrants etc) rather than exist as a result of social "austerity" or international "War" policy.
3) Most Govts look for the cheapest solution, which is basically offering these groups, camps or hostels or areas that are so off-putting, your folks unless desperate (happily) wont accept. As soon as a Govt starts the opposite "we welcome" line, the resulting numbers and subsequent adverse publicity mean that the policy gets overturned (Mrs Merkel)
4) These are becoming rather fashionable areas for NGOs who have worked out there is good money in providing basic care in these areas as govts can't solve the problems.
5) These are becoming rather fashionable areas for traffickers and poorer quality landlords who are the only ones actually providing an integrated service, ie homes, transport to areas, and illegal work to the migrants and the homeless
6) There is ignoral that the NGOs and traffickers are in many cases actually working together, so you get multiple implausible fake boat savings and migrants mysteriously picked up from camps in lorry containers.
Bit controversial point 6?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Most valuable, Wiley, I will engage with all your points.
| Wiles reckons that the homeless and the Refugee (stateless) are the same theoretical problem. |
I think ‘syndrome’ is better.
| 1) Some liberal folks like them |
All liberal folks ‘like’ them – it is currently a defining badge of liberals. They may have all kinds of internal reservations personally but they are not allowed to give voice to their fears, even to themselves, if they want to carry on believing themselves to be liberals and they would prefer to be burnt at the stake than give that up. It's who they are.
| but funnily enough not in their "house", neighborhood, country. |
Different houses, neighbourhoods, even countries. Even on Lesbos it is possible to seal oneself off. It's only the voters that can't.
| 2) Some conservatives like to think these are lifestyle or fake problems, (so the homeless have homes, the refugees are economic migrants etc) rather than exist as a result of social "austerity" or international "War" policy. |
Conservatives are roughly as intelligent and well-informed as liberals, but are selective in the opposite direction. What you have just stated is perfectly true but it is only a variant of the 'sturdy beggar' problem that plagues all societies. Everyone's a bit deserving, everyone's a bit brought it on themselves, everyone's a bit playing the system, everyone's a bit victim of circumstance. Liberals play up one aspect, conservatives the other.
| 3) Most Govts look for the cheapest solution, which is basically offering these groups, camps or hostels or areas that are so off-putting, your folks unless desperate (happily) wont accept. |
This is quite wrong. Every government discovers that just letting them wander about quite freely is the cheapest option. They would ideally like to 'control' them but always find that the only alternative to them wandering about, effective incarceration, is ruinously expensive both financially and reputationally. If there is any doubt on this score migrants will go to somewhere there isn't. More...
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| As soon as a Govt starts the opposite "we welcome" line, the resulting numbers, and subsequent adverse publicity mean that the policy gets overturned (Mrs Merkel) |
The policy never changes. Liberals and conservatives, remember, are running the same state. Both inherit the problem from the other, both come into office fulminating about how to solve the problem, both end up doing variants of the other’s policy, both may be swept away by people who know exactly what is required. I agree Ms Merkel's impetuousness ramped everything up but it was all there before her. And during her. And after her.
| 4) These are becoming rather fashionable areas for NGOs who have worked out there is good money providing basic care in these areas, as govts can't solve the problems. |
Yes, it is fascinating how NGO’s have become multinational corporations competing with one another for business by segmenting the market. And equally uncontrollable by mere national governments.
| 5) These are becoming rather fashionable areas for traffickers and poorer quality landlords who are the only ones actually providing an integrated service, ie homes, transport to areas, and illegal work to the migrants and the homeless |
Again spot on. If only these people would pay a bit more attention to public relations they could easily present themselves as white knights.
| 6) There is ignoral that the NGOs and traffickers are in many cases actually working together, so you get multiple implausible fake boat savings and migrants mysteriously picked up from camps in lorry containers. Bit controversial point 6? |
Yes, I think so. NGO’s would never make the mistake of overt co-operation but I think the phrase you are looking for is ‘vertical integration’.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | | but it is only a variant of the 'sturdy beggar' problem that plagues all societies |
I reckon the anger directed at Erdogan is a variant on the age old allegation.... that you moved the pauper over the boundary so you didnt have to pay out poor relief.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Not quite. For all his faults, for all Turkey's faults, they are presently playing host to more than five million 'migrants' (mostly Syrians but vast numbers of others being held up after the EU started paying them billions of euros to hold them up). They are about to have another million when their policy in Idlib collapses. They do all this remarkably uncomplainingly and remarkably successfully both in terms of the migrants and their own people. I don't know how they do it. We get a fit of the vapours when four Iranians pitch up on Dungeness beach. I think he is entitled to play small ball politics with them.
But your point is mildly wrong in another aspect. You couldn't 'move vagrants on' to the next parish, they'd move 'em straight back at you. You could legally move them back to their 'home parish' but vagrants, like all migrants, took some care not to let on where that was. The best you could do was make sure your workhouse was a little less salubrious than the next parish's workhouse and hope the sturdy ... beggars ... made the right decision all on their ownio.
PS This happened to New York once when a new reforming liberal regime took over City Hall determined to give people on welfare a decent slice of the pie. They came from all over.
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Hatty
Site Admin
In: Berkshire
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Germany doesn't get mentioned in the daily coronavirus bulletins. I just checked and the latest (17 minutes ago) figure is 2 (zwei) deaths. Perhaps Germans have healthier, more outdoorsy lifestyles but not all, surely. There may not be a connection with the Merkel policy of allowing one million immigrants into the country but it'd be ironic if there were.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Hatty wrote: | | Germany doesn't get mentioned in the daily coronavirus bulletins. I just checked and the latest (17 minutes ago) figure is 2 (zwei) deaths. Perhaps Germans have healthier, more outdoorsy lifestyles but not all, surely. There may not be a connection with the Merkel policy of allowing one million immigrants into the country but it'd be ironic if there were. |
The Germans are better at fighting wars than the Italians?
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Hatty
Site Admin
In: Berkshire
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The majority of immigrants are young. If they are included in the demographics, it would presumably lower the overall age of the population but whether that has any effect on the reach of coronavirus is speculative to say the least.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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All those people who have spent Trump's entire presidency accusing him of seeking dictatorial powers are now demanding he take dictatorial powers.
One other US health-themed story. My brother-in-law broke his leg (nothing to do with my sister this time) and because they're insured up to the gunnels he got prompt and effective treatment. So effective that a specialist spotted another small break on further checks. So he was down to get both operated on this week. Oh no! The specialist is tied up with a different surgeon, contracted to a different insurance company. Sorry, old chap, they must be done together, next appointment is in eight weeks. Here's some aspirin.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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| Hatty wrote: | | The majority of immigrants are young. If they are included in the demographics, it would presumably lower the overall age of the population but whether that has any effect on the reach of coronavirus is speculative to say the least. |
Yes, I think it does.
It came as an obvious-surprise to me that birth rates (per country) are a proxy for the likely impact of coronavirus in that country, e.g. both Italy and Spain have a net negative birth rate, with more dying than being born. And that was even before coronavirus came along (figures for 2019):
Italy is dying: Country’s birth rate drops to its lowest level in history
The shrinking population affects the 'very existence of our country,' President Sergio Mattarella warns. According to Italy’s national statistics agency, ISTAT, there were only 435,000 births in Italy last year, (2019) the lowest number ever recorded in the country, compared with 647,000 deaths. The number of births was down 5,000 from 2018, and the number of deaths increased by 14,000.
https://www.lifesitenews.com/news/italy-is-dying-countrys-birth-rate-drops-to-its-lowest-level-in-history |
There's a similar story in Spain, with a net decrease in population, skewing towards the elderly. Which then gets hit the hardest (proportionally speaking). Anyway, President Sergio Mattarella saw this as an existential crisis...
| “This is a problem that concerns the very existence of our country,†said Sergio Mattarella, 78. “The fabric of our country is weakening, and everything must be done to counter this phenomenon.†|
Paradoxically, President Sergio Mattarella may have got what he wished for. But no doubt he dare not say so. Coronavirus (and the natural consequences in an aged population) means that a drastic "reset" of the demographics is now underway, countering this phenomenon, and skewing the population age-bands back towards the younger surviving population.
It's difficult to be sure how much this factors-in economic migrants out of Italy and Spain (tending to be the younger ones), without knowing where they went. Anyone know?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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They certainly went somewhere. Italy and Spain share two further characteristics: they are on the front line for uncontrolled immigration and they are instinctively hostile to all immigrants. You can see this best with their football teams. You just don't expect to see a black face, you don't even expect to find a name without, as they say in New Yoik, a vowel at the end. Compare and contrast with that insularly white country, Switzerland, where German names are routinely outnumbered. In the France team, a Frenchman (in the Le Pen sense) is hard to find.
But they are going to have to do something. A declining population is not so bad in itself, you can cope with too many oldies because there aren't that many youngies. What neither Spain nor Italy will be able to cope with is that local Spaniards and Italians just won't do the crap jobs anymore. We, as usual, are doing very well in all this though Brexit is going to throw up some interesting times.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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I suppose everybody realises (Mickspeak for 'nobody has even thought about it') that the stockmarkets are changed for ever. Now that we know how much mayhem can be caused by a not very important 'flu' bug, every time one is announced (which is quite often) the markets will go into free-fall (but not meltdown) every time one is announced. Nobody will know whether this is The One or just another one. Which means the stockmarket will have to take an intermediate position -- a fall of several thousand points pending either even more several thousand points or back up to the status quo ante.
Ah, but something else is now present. The knowledge that this a permanent state of affairs. Therefore the stockmarket will have to factor that into account and that only means a permanent few thousand points lower than before. So no real sweat. I should have a whip round for these insights but there's a reason why merchant bankers is rhyming slang.
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Boreades
In: finity and beyond
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It was painful to listen to. Almost as painful as the realisation that it really *is* possible to have an even-worse Presidential candidate than Donald Trump.
Asked about reopening everyday life in America (after Covid-19 has peaked), Joe Biden said:
| “You know, there’s a… uh, during World War II, uh… you know, where Roosevelt came up with… a thing, uh, that, uh… you know, was totally different than a… than the… the, it’s called… he called it the… you know, the World War II… he had the war… the War Production Board….†|
How can this possibly be a good choice for the Democratic Party?
Not being a citizen of the USA, I confess my knowledge is limited to watching series like The Tiger King (as though that was representative of USA attitudes to power). Yet, two scenarios occur to me.
1) The Democratic Party doesn't want to be the party of the next President. OFFS, let's just skip a term and start over in four years.
2) The Democratic Party will slip-in a Vice Presidential candidate that most of us have never heard of, in the hope that the VP will quite quickly have to take on the main job.
You may have other scenarios in mind. If so, pray tell.
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