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The Flu (Health)
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Boreades


In: finity and beyond
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Wile E. Coyote wrote:
We have massively overstated the dangers of Covid. It's not going to take much now to be gripped by a new panic and be overrun, as we face the next waves of flu/covid variants.

That was no accident, it's what we've done every time an outbreak of anything loomed. And every time we've used theoretical mathematical modelling to invent a number that later turns out to be massively overstated. Somewhere on t'interweb I've seen a table of Professor Pantsdown's "predictions" over the last thirty years -v- the actual reality. If I can find it again, I'll paste it here. It's a valuable reference point.

Wile E. Coyote wrote:
The problem is that people and health professionals are not ever going to accept 10-20,000 Covid deaths a year in the UK after the sacrifices they have made.

This is certainly one of the problems. But it's not a medical or scientific problem, it's a psychological problem. After all, people and health professionals were quite happy accepting 10-20,000 (or more) deaths a year in the UK from other causes. Well, quite happy apart from the occasional tutting and "something should be done about XXXX" pleas.

Another of the elephants in the corner (and there are so many elephants in the room we can hardly see what we need to see) is the continual obsessive reporting of "cases" to scare people, when they are not clinically-diagnosed cases, just positive PCR tests. There are two main issues with PCR tests. (1) that the original creator of the test said they are not suitable for Covid, (2) the accuracy of the test depends a lot on the Test Cycle Threshold (TCT)

What TCT is actually being used appears to be a sensitive subject.

Someone tried an FOI request.

Please can you provide the entire data set of all positive cases and deaths with the Cycle Threshold added. This is the number of times the sample is amplified before it gives a positive result.

The response they got?

Due to Statistical Disclosure Control, we would not be able to publish the full data set of threshold cycles for each positive case, as this would constitute personal data.

Which is a bit of a puzzle, because the NHS and ONS usually (and routinely) publishes anonymised data for almost any medical topic. Had the request not included the word "entire", they might have had less room to wiggle out.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/aboutus/transparencyandgovernance/freedomofinformationfoi/covid19pcrpositivetestresultswithcyclethreshold

And even when the PCR test returns a positive result with a low TCT, that still doesn't mean the person is infectious.

PCR Positives might or might not lead to concluding that a subject testing positive by PCR is infectious. Why? Because PCR positives have not been correlated to the growth of the virus in culture. ... SARS-CoV, MERS, Influenza Ebola and Zika viral RNA can be detected long after the disappearance of the infectious virus. … because inactivated RNA degrades slowly over time it may still be detected many weeks after infectiousness has dissipated

https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/pcr-positives-what-do-they-mean/
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Mick Harper
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My darkest thought at the time was that as more and more people got Covid introduced into their system via vaccinations, so more and more people would register as being Covid-infected by hastily designed and rolled out but without the usual safeguards of Covid testing kits.

The only thing that would be required to turn this predictable storm into a perfect one, I continued to think darkly, would be the introduction of hastily designed and rolled out but without the usual safeguards of a pinging system that pinged on a 'WTF, it's best to be safe than sorry' basis. It'll never happen as long as we've got that nice Dr Cummings at Number 10.
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Boreades


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Here we go again.

Modelling has suggested that the central case for U.K. daily hospitalisations at the peak of the third wave – expected at the end of August – could be between 1,000 and 2,000, with deaths predicted to be between 100 and 200 per day. …

There's that heartsink phrase again - "Modelling has suggested ...".

I'm sooooo tired of the number of times we've had to say "modelling" can give you any numbers you damn-well like. In other settings, we used to call it "torturing the data until it gives you the answer you wanted".

Last week Chief Medical Officer Professor Chris Whitty said hospitalisations were doubling roughly every three weeks. ... SAGE scientists have advised that some non-pharmaceutical measures should be reintroduced, such as mandatory face masks and advice to work from home, in early August, halfway between the July 19th unlocking and the predicted peak at the end of August.

I propose a new measure of government health policy, the "U-Turn Index" (UTI). Now expecting the UTI to peak sometime in late August.
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Mick Harper
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Yes, but I couldn't help noticing that the death rate had, yesterday, reached the hundred mark, from a standing start. Just because modelling gets it wrong doesn't mean that it's getting it wrong.
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Grant



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It’s easy for the experts to increase the death rate - encourage the hospitals to carry out more COVID tests on people who have died without symptoms. The stats are being manipulated by those who have a vested interest in maintaining the great hysteria
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Mick Harper
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This may be true, Grant, but you should not write it as if you knew it was true. One of the commandments of AE is to avoid the orthodox position of assuming that opponents are acting from bad faith. Remember, whenever A disagrees with B the only thing that A's brain does not permit is, 'Gracious, our disagreement may stem from B being right and me wrong' since that would result in A's brain having to be rewired.
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Wile E. Coyote


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One of the commandments of AE is to avoid the orthodox position of assuming that opponents are acting from bad faith.


Yes fair play to the PM, the Chancellor, the Health Secretary and now the Leader of the Opposition, as they are all now self isolating, unable to enjoy the new freedoms they have given to the rest of us. Keep it up guys. My thoughts will be with you, whilst I go out raving.
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Mick Harper
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Go on raving.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Careful Ignoral = Which is best vaccine?

For some reason we can Which? is the best of everything, except the best vaccine.

Just saying.
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Boreades


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Fact check:

Covid-19 mRNA Vaccines Are Not ‘Gene Therapy,’ As Some Are Claiming

According to Forbes
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucelee/2021/03/17/covid-19-mrna-vaccines-are-not-gene-therapy-as-some-are-claiming/

And the BBC
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zgfgf82

And other Fact Checkers that are members of the Trusted News Initiative.

Its other members include AFP, CBC/Radio-Canada, the European Broadcasting Union (EBU), Facebook, the Financial Times, First Draft, Google/YouTube, The Hindu, Microsoft , Twitter, and the Wall Street Journal.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediacentre/latestnews/2020/trusted-news-initiative

It's puzzling then to read the following in an interview with Dr Robert Malone. "Who's he?" (I hear you ask)

Dr Robert Malone, an industrial scientist and the authoritative voice on mRNA (messenger ribonucleic acid) technology since he invented it when he was a graduate student at the Salk Institute in 1988. US-based Dr Malone is not a conspiracy theorist and he’s not an anti-vaxxer. He’s spent the past three decades building vaccines and vaccine technology.

Sounds like he should know his stuff.

Dr Malone stated: ‘In the Security and Exchange Commission filings for both Pfizer and Moderna, there’s explicit statements that acknowledge that these are gene therapy-based (vaccines) and the FDA (Food and Drug Administration) perceives them as such.’

Oh dear, won't he get in trouble for saying that? Too late, he already has.

(An) interview with him was pulled off YouTube in the space of just three hours.

But why?

The topic of censorship was raised, as at the time of the interview the doctor had been ‘erased’ from LinkedIn and his full interview with Brett Weinstein and Steve Kirsch had been removed from YouTube. One of the reasons LinkedIn gave him was because he mentioned that a chairman on the board at Reuters had links to Pfizer.

Not sure what the links are (does anyone?) Or perhaps following the money/shareholdings can now get you deplatformed?

The full interview is still available on BitChute:

https://www.bitchute.com/video/ukx8L3lh5CA7/
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Mick Harper
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The reason this is fascinatingly significant from the AE perspective is that what starts out as a set of safeguards against the craziest of the crazies -- we're talking about avowed fake newsists and obviously destructive trolls -- gradually becomes a way of weeding out the normal crazies. People with off-the-wall but not off-the-planet theories. Once this is achieved it is the turn of the anti-orthodox brigade. That's us. Once certain phrases have been tarred via the algorithm, we are easy pickings. Radical revision is no longer possible.

But then comes the fight to be the only game in town. Which is the hallmark of all academic positions. They're called 'disciplines', doncha know? First the minority orthodox position is dispatched via internal controls, then comes the majority but 'old hat' position -- that's the one everybody believed last year -- until finally it's time for Old Turk syndrome which is when the Founding Fathers are found to be senile. Mentioning something which is presumably true ("a chairman on the board at Reuters had links to Pfizer") but unwise is a definite sign of senility.

Now it's Last Man Standing. Only it's Everyman. And forever.
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Wile E. Coyote


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Worrying report in the telegraph that Covid is spread by flatulence. PHE could soon be advising that vegans consider switching to a meat based diet.
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Boreades


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"You're not going to get COVID if you have these vaccinations" - Joe Biden


Oops!

Will Public Health England get misinformationated?

Table 5 of the most recent briefing from Public Health England (Briefing 19) both list the numbers of Delta cases, and the number of deaths, for both vaccinated and unvaccinated people.

Briefing 19 covers 1 February 2021 to 19 July 2021

If the numbers are to be believed, for just the sub-set of people who have had both jabs -v- the unvaccinated.
Cases for both jabs: 28,773
Cases for unvaccinated : 121,402
(That's leaving out the "in-betweeners", the people who have only had one jab so far)

So that looks fairly clear, you're more likely to be a "case" if you are not double-jabbed yet. But being vaccinated doesn't guarantee anything. Regardless of what Joe Biden said.

At the bottom of the same Table 5, we get "Deaths within 28 days of positive specimen date"
Deaths for both jabs: 224
Deaths for unvaccinated : 165

Or, by my calculator :
% death rate for people with both jabs = 0.78
% death rate for people with no jabs = 0.13

Which, at first glance, might be alarming. Are the PHE / Gov UK figures saying that vaccinated people are more likely to die than the unvaccinated? No. Because there are now more vaccinated people than unvaccinated. And most of the double-jabbed are older people, who are more likely to die first anyway.

Ref: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
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Mick Harper
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When asked why they refuse to be vaccinated, the most frequently cited reason by Americans is, "I don't trust the government." This is weird because not only are the vaccines themselves the product of private enterprise, they are for the most part distributed and eventually administered by private companies. It is hard to see, even given the dubious logic pathways of anti-vaxxers, where the government comes into it. Unless this is a case of "If the government's for it, I'm ag'in it."

One can see their point though. They can hardly say, "I don't trust a technique that's been tried and tested since the eighteenth century." Maybe we should slip it into the US Constitution. The right to bare arms. Or, perhaps, if we told them lots of Muslims are ag'in it too, they might change their minds.
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Boreades


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"RTFM" of the day.

Vaxzevria (previously COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca)

What is it?

Vaxzevria is made up of another virus (of the adenovirus family) that has been modified to contain the gene for making a protein from SARS-CoV-2.

How does it work?

Vaxzevria works by preparing the body to defend itself against COVID-19. It is made up of another virus (adenovirus) that has been modified to contain the gene for making the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. This is a protein on the surface of the SARS-CoV-2 virus which the virus needs to enter the body’s cells.

Once it has been given, the vaccine delivers the SARS-CoV-2 gene into cells in the body. The cells will use the gene to produce the spike protein. The person’s immune system will then recognise this protein as foreign and produce antibodies and activate T cells (white blood cells) to attack it.

Can Vaxzevria reduce transmission from one person to another?

The impact of vaccination with Vaxzevria on the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the community is not yet known. It is not yet known how much vaccinated people may still be able to carry and spread the virus.

This EPAR was last updated on 19/07/2021

https://www.ema.europa.eu/en/medicines/human/EPAR/vaxzevria-previously-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca
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