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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Can't see it, if a major aim of the SMO was to bring water to the Crimea, then this would signal the loss of one big thing they had actually achieved. |
They are signalling that they have given up on the war aims of the SMO and are now trying to rescue what they can from the peace.
| Mind you, you could be right. If so, Wile E Crimean Ruskii is now going to be jumping in his Lada and heading back over the Kerch bridge to ensure his own personal supply lines. |
This is why the Ukrainians will (I predict) try to break the land corridor. Just by reaching the coast with a toe-hold means the Sea of Azov is no longer a Russian lake and the bridge is now an international waterway. This is why the Russians have blown the dam since it hinders the Ukrainians breaking the corridor.
| If Putin places such a low value on now supplying the Crimea, what happens if Vlad at some point gets it into his small bald head that he is losing the battle for Crimea, so needs to blow up the bridge to slow the barbarian advance towards the actual Gates of the Motherland? That would leave poor Wiley trapped. |
There is no way even the Russians could lose the Crimea militarily. They might have to give it up in the peace talks but they would have to be routed utterly for that to happen.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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We can certainly rule out two of the dambusting explanations. It cannot have been because of artillery shelling. People have been trying to do this since artillery was invented. No successes I know of so far. (Errant floating mines come into this category too.) It cannot be because of lack of maintenance. Dams seldom fail on the day a military offensive is launched against the people who have/have not been maintaining it. Nor do they fail in quite such a spectacular manner as to have a central section disappear with an almighty explosion. So that leaves the Russians and Costain's who are known to be looking for dam contracts in eastern Europe.
PS If you watched carefully, the Russian bloke in the military fatigues who gives the official daily Moscow telly briefings was visibly embarrassed when denying any Russian involvement in the operation. It was only a momentary flicker but quite unmistakable. Proves he is a genuine army man and not an actor. That's what made the Falklands briefings by civil servant Ian McDonald (remember him?) so authentically believable. Nary a flicker.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Here goes....off to planet Wiley
Why do you destroy your own defences, why would you cut off your own water supply?
The answer is I think that the Russians wanted an excuse to not supply grain to the rest of the world, without being seen by their own folks within the Crimea and their own supporters in Africa as being the bad guys.
They expect Western resolve to weaken when the Crimea is a dust bowl, poor folks are starving, the price of a Warburton loaf goes up again.
It's economic warfare stupid.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Why do you destroy your own defences |
In so far as the dam was 'a bridge' then blowing it adds to the defences. Creating a flooded area rather than having to defend it with troops is as old as Moses blowing the Red Sea dam. And everyone else since.
| why would you cut off your own water supply? |
The Russians have already lost the Crimea Canal, remember?
| The answer is I think that the Russians wanted an excuse to not supply grain to the rest of the world, without being seen by their own folks within the Crimea and their own supporters in Africa as being the bad guys. |
Ingenious but a bit strangulated if you don't mind my saying so. The flooded bits of Ukraine are diddly and temporary.
| They expect Western resolve to weaken when the Crimea is a dust bowl, poor folks are starving, the price of a Warburton loaf goes up again. |
I don't know why you keep on about the Crimea. It doesn't export much of anything but if it's a dust bowl that's a Russian problem not a Western one.
| It's economic warfare stupid. |
You mustn't talk like that about Russians. They're very sensitive and have a phial of novichok with your name on it. The Nazis said something similar to Mr & Mrs Doodlebug of Esher, Surrey.
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Ishmael
In: Toronto
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Whatever happened to "The truth is obvious?"
This entire section has been nothing but an echo chamber of elite opinion for years.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Gee, we're awfully sorry. We would mend our ways if you would only put just a leetle flesh on your bare bones. On second thoughts...
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Ishmael
In: Toronto
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I avoid these discussions like the plague.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Leaving the rest of us to die of it. You can be so cruel sometimes.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Another nice vignette from Ukraine. Through the fog of war we have dimly been able to make out that the long-awaited Ukrainian "counter" offensive (the newshounds don't understand military terms) has started and by all accounts hasn't been going too well. For all I know this is 'as planned' because these are feints preparatory to the real thing.
The official Ukrainian mouthpiece didn't know either (quite rightly), so was faced with the ticklish task of reporting to the newshounds that (a) the offensive had started and (b) it wasn't apparently making much progress. Something he achieved with a series of answers all of which began with the word, "Um."
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Grant
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Not surprising after they gave Russia six months to set up their defences.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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I doubt it is going to look much different to what has happened before. That is, the Russians will suffer from being bombarded by artillery and then wisely retreat, much as they did from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson. The Ukrainians will then grab a chunk of territory and pause again.
After a few more chunks are recovered, Ukraine will proclaim victory over the mighty aggressor. So will Russia proclaim victory over the mighty aggressor, NATO.
Both sides' supporters will argue that their own side's version is the only correct interpretation.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Not surprising after they gave Russia six months to set up their defences. |
Can you name an offensive in the annals of war when the enemy have not set up their defences? That is why I made reference to incorrect military terminology. A counter-offensive is launched when (because) the enemy haven't set up their defences, they are in the throes of an offensive. An 'offensive' is defined as a large scale advance after a period of relative inaction by both sides.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| I doubt it is going to look much different to what has happened before. That is, the Russians will suffer from being bombarded by artillery and then wisely retreat, much as they did from Kyiv, Kharkiv, Kherson. The Ukrainians will then grab a chunk of territory and pause again. |
Sounds like a pretty successful offensive to me given Ukrainian war aims.
| After a few more chunks are recovered, Ukraine will proclaim victory over the mighty aggressor. So will Russia proclaim victory over the mighty aggressor, NATO. |
I agree. The Ukrainians tend to tell the truth, the Russians tend not to.
| Both sides' supporters will argue that their own side's version is the only correct interpretation. |
True, but only one side will be correct.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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This is not good, Wagner PMC is refusing to sign a contract with the Russian army, which decrees that, as of 1 July 2023, all voluntary fighters who are fighting for Russia have to now sign a contract with the Russian Federation.
This might be something to do with the fact that Wagner appears to be stealing equipment, kidnapping Russian personel and generally trolling Russian Generals etc, so they are not loking forward to a contract devised by Shoigu, whch might very well mention not stealing equipment, not kidknapping personel and, err, following orders.
Wiley says, don't worry guys, you will soon get used to it.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Cripes. Wagner appears to be shooting down Russian helicopters (Russian helicopters shelling Wagner), and Wagner have occupied Rostov in Southern Russia, it's a city of over a million.
| Yevgeny Prigozhin in Rostov wrote: |
“We lost huge amount of territories in Ukraine. The Russian losses in Ukraine are 3-4 times higher than reported by the Russian High Command. Up to 1000 casualties a day (KIA + WIA).â€
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According to Prigozhin it's now a planned march on Moscow to demonstrate against the leadership of the army............
No worries, a "special marching operation" not a coup.
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