War on Terrorism (Politics)

[Wile E. Coyote]

It's all a bit Tom Clancy isn't it?

Secret Agent Smiley Wiley advises that it could well be that they used the same divers and same batch of explosives but surely would be a bit crackpot to use the same vessel, after all the explosions are 80 kilometres apart. The same vessel spotted in the vicinity of both explosions would equal guilt. So if you are going down the state actor route using, err, hired yachts (rather than, say, a sub), you probably would need at least one other vessel?

[Mick Harper]

Not a deal breaker if it is an oligarch -- either Russian or Ukrainian (or for that matter American). Just about in the wheelhouse of a particularly well-financed bunch of Ukrainian freedom-fighters but are there any such? Their last foray, the advance over the border to shoot up some hapless Russians (the morning after Putin celebrated NKVD-Day) didn't strike one as being overly slick.

No, it's a straight choice between the Ukrainian and Russian governments, with semi-rogue elements of American Spookery Inc as rank outsiders. Let us hope President Zelensky insisted on plausible deniability for himself when the overall plan was being put together. As he said at the time, "Love it, chaps, but remember it's the Swedes that dish out Nobel Peace Prizes."

[Mick Harper]

The bombing of the Rainbow Warrior is currently being remembered on the telly and it has some fascinating parallels with the Nordstream bombing. Neither could be immediately blamed on any particular country or interest because both seemed to be somewhere between absurdly over-reactive and crazily counter-productive.

The dénouement had some striking similarities as well. A combination of blind chance and modern technology. The NZ bombing was solved because there had been a spate of thefts at the yacht basin so Neighbourhood Watch had set up with binoculars. They spotted no thieves but did notice a camper van and a large car behaving suspiciously. Taking the vehicle numbers led to the arrest of the two (French secret service) bombers who had hired the campervan. Attention: secret services! You've got no chance doing anything in broad daylight in built-up areas cf Rostock.

There was also an international mystery when the (French secret service) car-hirers were traced to the (Australian) island of Norfolk. Attention: secret services! Get your chaps home ASAP, this is not the time for a bit of R & R in someone else's backyard. In the programme, the NZ police claimed the Aussies had given them twenty-four hours to get the goods or let the accessories-to-murder suspects go home. Which they did. This was patently absurd, there was plenty of evidence -- certainly enough for a twenty-four hour extension which, the NZ police claimed, would have been time enough to get the rest.

Someone was being leaned on to keep the western alliance intact.

[Mick Harper]

Newsnight begins its coverage of the Putin Arraigned For War Crimes story with a long interview featuring a woman arrested for reporting to Kyiv details of Russian military traffic passing through her occupied village. She would have been summarily shot by all armies, including all British ones, for doing this. Instead she was taken away to Russia and subsequently released. It seems a strange case to begin Newsnight's own arraignment of Putin.

[Wile E. Coyote]

One of the key questions on the explosion of the Nordstream pipelines is why was one of the four pipelines not blown up.

If this is a state actor, which state actor would benefit from the blowing up of Nordstream 1 but having the ability to in the future use Nordstream 2 as they left alone one of the two Nordstream 2 pipes.

It's not the US (they would surely have blown up all). It's certainly not the Ukrainiains as Nordstream 2 was actually developed to avoid piping gas through and paying Ukraine as happens under Nordstream 1.

The blowing up of Nordstream 1 meant that Gazprom could not be sued for not supplying gas to Europe, but still had the future ability (if there was a policy change in Germany) to immediately supply gas, without the use of Nordstream 1.

[Mick Harper]

That was my theory originally, remember? And I have not seen it advanced by anyone else. I had to scrap it because of the arrest of the Rostock Ukrainians. About whom suspiciously more has not been forthcoming.

[Wile E. Coyote]

You shouldn't have scrapped it, the theory that you can blow up gas pipe lines, which are in busy shipping lanes and designed to survive earthquake tremors, with a coupla of divers and a hired yacht was probably not going to withstand the test of time.

[Mick Harper]

Question & Answer Session: The Iraq War

[Wile E. Coyote]

Eh? Robin Cook was dismissed as Foreign Secretary in 2001.

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

Well, yes, that's a runner. And the Vietnam War. What makes Iraq II so bad was that unlike those two, it was not fought for a legitimate reason (whether you agree with those reasons or not). Like the Ukraine War, it was essentially a vanity project.

Also unlike those two wars, it has proved impossible to put all the pieces back together again. Its ramifications have been truly staggering.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]