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War on Terrorism (Politics)
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Mick Harper
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Where do I sign up?
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Ishmael


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Told you so.

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Mick Harper
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I would have thought this points to the opposite but maybe I've been reading too many spy books.
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Wile E. Coyote


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This is CIA Director William Burns' "secret meeting" in Afghanistan Monday with the Taliban’s de facto leader, Abdul Ghani Baradar.

Mullah Baradar isn't actually ex Guantanamo, he was being held by the ISI before returning to lead the Taliban in talks with the US. The new defence minister, Mullah Abdul Qayyum Zakir, is an ex detainee.

The new Taliban leadership obviously doesn't understand that the point of a negotiation, or a G7, is to kick the can down the dusty road, past an agreed deadline, so that the top nations can all look as though they are solving things.

So it's a "no" to more time to withdraw from the Taliban.
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Mick Harper
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At the last count the Yanks are getting seventeen thousand away on a daily basis. If the Taliban gave them an extension there soon won't be anyone left in Afghanistan. This has not stopped the media in its panicked tracks

Item: Boris Johnson (and the rest of the it must be G5 by now) failed to persuade Biden to extend the deadline. This is evidence of how, when push comes to shove, the Americans always look after their own. Or bow to the inevitable, given the Taliban hold all the cards, depending how you look at these things. Who knew the Brits (and the other G-whizzers) had quite so many assets in the old Afghanistan? Not nearly enough though as events turned out.

Item: the airlift of imperilled civilians will have to be stopped peremptorily in order to get the American troops out. Well, there are five thousand of them so that should take them an afternoon. Though if I were the Taliban I'd probably not try to stop them too strenuously, if it turned out to be the afternoon of September the First.

Item: For the last fifty years Afghanis have been spending tens of thousands of pounds each and using literally death-defying routes in order to be economic migrants to the west. What would any of them have done for the opportunity to produce a 'I-helped-the west' or even a 'I'm an educated woman' document and been flown out free of charge on a jet liner?

Item: I understand I'm being over-cynical. The Taliban are a bunch of murderous bastards and I for one would be outta there like a dose of salts. I just like a bit of even-handed coverage, is that too much to ask? [AE answer: Yes.]
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Grant



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According to Ann Coulter there were 100,000 “interpreters” for the 50,000 US soldiers.

Another question never asked by the media is do we want to import thousands of Afghans who betrayed their own nation by helping the enemy?
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Mick Harper
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The USA was founded by thousands of people who betrayed their country.
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Wile E. Coyote


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Grant wrote:

Another question never asked by the media is do we want to import thousands of Afghans who betrayed their own nation by helping the enemy?


Another question is, can you ever train an army that doesn't even seem to want to fight and defend their wives and daughters, knowing what the Taliban will do?
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Mick Harper
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Isn't it a fact that no successful Afghan army has been trained at all, by anyone, for any purpose? I'd liked to have been at the planning conference that began, "The important thing is to hand out some old Enfield .303's -- have we got any in stock, s'ant-major? And say nothing."
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Wile E. Coyote


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Mick Harper wrote:
Isn't it a fact that no successful Afghan army has been trained at all, by anyone, for any purpose?


Looks like the Taliban have conquered the country with a military solution. It's not really a strategic withdrawal when you leave tons of equipment, planes and black hawk helicopters to be captured. These Taliban fighters might look like tribespeople carrying archaic weapons, but the pictures show captured night vision goggles, grenade launchers, M4 carbines, etc. It's also noticeable that the Taliban did not rush to Kabul but in actual fact secured most of the northern provinces first, so stopping the significant threat from a reforming Northern Alliance.

The US was planning a withdrawal leaving a stalemate, but created a helpmate.

Not sure this new unified Afghan state is going to break down anytime soon. They might not be able to fly the black hawks yet, but the vehicles and rifles will ensure security.
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Ishmael


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Never forget that you laughed at me.

But I am right.
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Mick Harper
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Looks like the Taliban have conquered the country with a military solution.

Getaway! Whatever will they think of next? "Let's have a military solution for conquering a country." "Nah, let's not."

It's not really a strategic withdrawal when you leave tons of equipment, planes and black hawk helicopters to be captured. These Taliban fighters might look like tribespeople carrying archaic weapons, but the pictures show captured night vision goggles, grenade launchers, M4 carbines, etc.

I think you'll find goggles, grenade launchers and rifles are fairly low tech. And available from Exchange & Mart.

It's also noticeable that the Taliban did not rush to Kabul but in actual fact secured most of the northern provinces first, so stopping the significant threat from a reforming Northern Alliance.

You may have been watching the Olympics or something. The Taliban were mainly active for twenty years in their own southern heartlands. Then the Americans announced they were leaving. Then the Taliban rushed to Kabul. It is true though that the Northern Alliance (insofar as it exists) signalled their acquiescence by allowing the Talibans to walk into various northern towns.

The US was planning a withdrawal leaving a stalemate, but created a helpmate.

This is the nub. Officially the US plan was indeed to leave a stalemate -- or as we would say, make sure Afghanistan is left prostrate by civil war indefinitely to the great misery of its inhabitants. But unofficially, between you and me and assuming Ishmael is not eavesdropping, Trump probably said one morning, "Fuck it. Let's get out of Afghannywhateveritscalled." And Biden said, "Fuck it, suits me."

Not sure this new unified Afghan state is going to break down anytime soon. They might not be able to fly the black hawks yet, but the vehicles and rifles will ensure security.

I fear their success will be short-lived then. Having all that gear has been the kiss of death for every previous Afghan regime.
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Mick Harper
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But now, just as I predicted, ISIS have entered the fray by blowing up lots of people waiting to get on a plane, thereby becoming the extremists and turning the Taliban into 'the moderates'. I don't give much for their chances. They will find that a Taliban government is not like western-approved governments, they'll string you up by the goolies or whatever it takes to halt recruitment in its tracks.

Though it was interesting listening to old-time security analysts saying that Afghan ISIS mainly consists of 'younger Talibans who disapprove of the moderate policies being espoused by the Talban hierarchy'. They don't know this, they are just applying the lessons learned from the IRA, ETA, Shining Path and so on. It isn't true unless the various hierarchies make it true by being extremely dumb because these long-running insurrections only end when no other outcome is possible.

In the case of Afghanistan I am firmly of the opinion that the Taliban will make a go of it and be, like the North Vietnamese in 1975, both the end of the line and the beginning of a new one. Unless...
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Mick Harper
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1. The Taliban really do go moderate. Then they will find, not just ISIS, but the entirety of the rural traditional Afghan population, will get terribly antsy and every kind of insurrectional groundswell will be set off once again.
2. Russia decides it's safe to get back into the water and starts to use its influence over the various Central Asian -stans to re-invigorate the Northern Alliance, turning half of Afghanistan into a permanent no-go area.
3. The Americans decide they haven't had enough and/or have a fit of permanent pique and/or wish to demonstrate to the world what happens if you have the temerity to beat Uncle Sam, and unleashes the CIA on a big-time destabilisation programme.
4. The world community decides that not educating women to PhD standards (or whatever) is such a big no-no that it will make life intolerable for a Taliban government and -- it couldn't be helped, it's the principle of the thing -- intolerable for the Afghani people.
5. 'Not being moderate' equates to a reign of terror.

But as I say, my money's on the good old Talibans.
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Ishmael


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Never forget. You laughed at me.

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