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War on Terrorism (Politics)
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Iran has achieved an unprecedented position: it has been granted tacit permission by the world (including the Americans) to carry out an act which would otherwise be condemned as an atrocity. What should be her tactic? Well, the first thing to observe is that this is not a wasting asset. Revenge, we are so often told, is best served cold (which is a bunch of bollocks, by the way, it should be served at the right time) so there's no reason not to let the Americans sweat. Especially as, when it does happen, there can only be two outcomes: a) Jeez, is that all? or b) Kee-rist, the Yanks are going to level Tehran after that.

But are the Iranians wise enough to do nothing at all?
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Mick Harper wrote:


But are the Iranians wise enough to do nothing at all?


When an elephant runs amok, the tiger growls, but then slopes off looking for deer. It is called a proportionate response.
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Mick Harper
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The Little Satan, you mean? Batten down the hatches. But seriously, Wiley, I wish you hadn't introduced this wild life metaphor, it's really getting out of hand. The tiger kills deer all day, every day, without reference to elephants. Indeed the world would be a poorer place if it didn't. However the 'proportionate response' is an interesting concept.

It surely has to be bigger than the original act. This is the attitude of law-'n-order generally which argues that in order to be a deterrent, and to take into account all the times the miscreant wasn't caught, the punishment must be greater than the crime. That would mean, say, bombing a small wing of the Pentagon. But my guess is that it will be a small wing of the Fifth Fleet. Say, an aircraft carrier. Thirty speedboats, thirty suicide speedboat drivers should do it.

But the trouble with 'proportionality' is that it will be the Americans who will be judging what is or is not proportionate and since they have just spent seven trillion dollars avenging the Twin Towers I wouldn't bank on their sense of proportionality. This all started because of the death of one American contractor, let's not forget.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Angela Merkel is offering to be honest broker between, Putin, Trump and Tehran.

This is 3 months after the Russians had taken out a Chechen Commander in Berlin.

Honest Broker= No Influence, in the disputed area.

It's a humiliation for Merkel.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Funnily enough I was thinking last night this was just what was needed. Britain is unacceptable to the Iranians, France is unacceptable to the Americans, Russia and China are laughing all the way to the bank. So, I decided, it would have to be Frau Merkel. I think you underestimate the fact that both parties know they have (sort of) bitten off more than they would ordinarily chew and (sort of) looking for a way out. God, now I'm using wildlife metaphors.
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Chad


In: Ramsbottom
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Jeez, is that all?

Kee-rist… I hope so.
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Grant



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What's the chance of a plane going down in flames in Iran days after the Sulamaini killing?
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Mick Harper
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Interesting developments. It turns out that the Iranians were deliberately avoiding firing at places where there were Americans. Only Iraqis, who cares about them? Not even Iraqis.

The next question is 'Who says so?' I was astonished to hear that the Iranians had missiles that could hit military bases from five hundred miles away in the first place, but to hit the Iraqi parts of the bases is telemetry but not as Iranians understand it, Captain. So we might be hearing the first glimmers of an American climb-down/return to the path of wisdom, depending on factors beyond my loyalties, Captain.
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Chad


In: Ramsbottom
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Grant wrote:
What's the chance of a plane going down in flames in Iran days after the Sulamaini killing?

Coming within hours of the Iranian response (and given that this doesn’t look like a legitimate target for either the Americans or the Iranians) are we looking at some sort of rogue Iraqi faction?
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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At present it is a question of careful ignoral. I have been watching the ticker all day and nobody has been mentioning the crash much less the overpowering coincidence. "Technical factors" just keeps crossing the bottom of the screen. By the way, I hope this was not rote. A very dangerous condition for an AE-ist.

Jeez, is that all?

Kee-rist… I hope so.
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Ishmael


In: Toronto
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Some suggest the path of the missiles intersected that of the aircraft.
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Chad


In: Ramsbottom
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By the way, I hope this was not rote.

Kee-rist... I hope not.

(Jeez, that would be awful.)
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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So the theory is that the Iranians, following their own strike, and fearing massive retaliation, have mistakenly shot down a civilian airliner, believing they were coming under US attack?
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Chad


In: Ramsbottom
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Ishmael wrote:
Some suggest the path of the missiles intersected that of the aircraft.

Looks like the plane went down some two and a half hours before the missiles hit the ‘Green Zone’. That would suggest the missiles were only travelling at about 200 mph (to a target 500 mile away)... is that not a tad slow?
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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We can dismiss the possibility on simple grounds of ten gazillion to one against two bodies occupying the same space (accidentally). I noticed that one of the British fatalities had an Iranian name but had not brought his wife along. I'm going for an inside job.
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