War on Terrorism (Politics)

[Wile E. Coyote]

Even if it's not a coup, it's like a private military company taking over Birmingham, and then demanding that Rishi fire his top generals as the foreign SMO misadventure is going so poorly.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Putin is not taking this well, he is calling it a betrayal and calling for brutal measures......

[Wile E. Coyote]

The problem for Putin is that Wagner has African experience of both planning and defeating coups, they know what they are doing, they have captured airpfields and can use each airfield for support. It won't be easy just to stop any convoy to Moscow with Russian air power, and the Russian infantry is scared of Wagner, some are already putting down arms.

[Mick Harper]

My prediction is that the Putinite forces will put down the Wagner putsch with considerable ease. It is true authoritarian Russian regimes can be changed following unsuccessful wars (Crimea, Japanese, First World and Afghanistan) but this is not seen as an unsuccessful war yet. The Motherland is putting up a stern resistance to NATO aggression in Ukraine.

PS Traffic jams will stop any advance on Moscow.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Russian State Duma has urged the Wagner forces speeding towards Moscow to put down their weapons "sooner, rather than later".

Wiley thinks that this is a more than reasonable timescale..... given that they will be at the Gates of the Citadel tommorrow.

It looks to Wiley that Wagner is not seeking a coup, it is more likely a means to end the current leadership failiures of the SMO, ie by getting rid of Shoigu and Gerasimov. Now Putin has backed the duo, it could be case of whether the other elements of the Russian army will opt to back Putin, Shoigu and Gerasimov, or whether they will let Wagner remove all three before then the Russian army making a move to support new better leadership.

[Mick Harper]

[Wile E. Coyote]

I can't help it. I have lots of experience. It's a case of sensing the critical moment, the bit when you realise you might have might have run unwittingly over the edge. Do you look down or not? I always do.

[Mick Harper]

The Big Cheese has just announced his forces are turning back short of Moscow so it looks like he's going to be ... a right (Bonnie Prince) Charlie.

[Wile E. Coyote]

It's pretty clear what Putin gets out of this deal, the question is what did Prigozhin get?

Nobody knows.....

My guess is that Luka has offered him a massive payment to move Wagner forces to Belarus to "defend his country from insurrectionist forces" and defend against the Ukrainians should they come across the border. Wagner gets out of the SMO, it can now concentrate on where the easier money is..... Africa. Luka gets a half decent army to protect himself.

[Mick Harper]

When everyone starts saying "Things can never be the same again" you can be sure things will be back to normal in no time at all. Far from being weakened, Putin is ... er ... not weakened. Somebody drove a few bits and bobs up the M4? All Putin had to do was go on telly, make some blood-curdling threats, and they all went home. Nobody will be trying that again in a hurry.

Now it's all over, we must deal with the new status quo ante. My first thought was 'Big Cheese, do not, repeat not, go anywhere near Belarus. You'll be clapped in irons before you've said 'Purpose of visit? Not sure yet'." However I did run the Wiley scenario through the windmills of my mind ®

[Wile E. Coyote]

The problem for Putin is that the Russian Army will not like the fact that there has been a mutiny in which half of dozen or so of their helicopters were shot down by Wagner, and it now appears that muntineers are leaving without punishment.

This is not going to help with military discipline or morale. For god sake, if you want folks to follow the Czar, there needs to be at least a court martial, preferably some shootings for folks that rebel.

This will not go down at all well in the trenches, and it can't be blamed on Shoigu or Gerasimov.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Hatty]

He may not complete the course. Prigozhin also accused the FSB of corruption, specifically looting the Donbas, echoing Litvinenko's denunciations. Hardly a reassuring parallel.

In his address to the nation, Prigozhin was publicly called a traitor and we all know how Putin deals with Russia's enemies. He can't be seen negotiating with a traitor/terrorist so gets his obedient ally to do the talking and avoids future recriminations of breaking 'their' agreement.

[Wile E. Coyote]

If Shoigu and Gerasimov now disappear, or Surovikin is promoted above them, Prigozhin has had his initial demands met.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Difficult to fathom, clearly Russian intelligence services did not spot the danger of Wagner nor could Russian armed forces militarily stop Wagner taking a city of over a million people, so Putin had to move from betrayal, harsh punishments, to ringing up Luka to ask him to make a deal.

Russian TV has to address all this, as Putin talked of "civil war" when he went on TV, so they can't ignore this embarrassing turn of events, ie being bailed out by the buffoonish (in popular imagination) Luka.......it all shows Ivan the Ordinary, with his feet rotting in his trench, that there appears nothing much now behind him, and reserves are not on their way....if there was, how come rogue folks could capture a Russian city? It's all well and good Peskov saying Wagner will be signed up, would Ivan want to fight alongside of them?