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Hatty
Site Admin
In: Berkshire
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Newsreaders are reporting that Ukrainian children, abducted by Russian soldiers, are returning to Ukraine. The abductions are the basis of the war crime allegation aimed at indicting Putin by the ICC, so is there still a case against him? It's not clear if all the children returned but the repatriation seems to have been carried out without much brouhaha. I wonder why.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Hatty wrote: | | Newsreaders are reporting that Ukrainian children, abducted by Russian soldiers, are returning to Ukraine. |
No soldier of any army abducts children. "Sarge, I've got this kid, what do you want done with him?" During a war lots of children (with or without accompanying parents) find themselves in all manner of extreme circumstance and military forces have to do something about them. The norm is to send them back 'for processing'. Largely because they can't be sent forward through no man's land.
In the Ukrainian war this is complicated because most of the fighting has been taking place in Russian-speaking areas so most of the children (with or without accompanying parents) are fine about going back to Russia proper. It's one hell of a lot better than being in a warzone. But there are lots of Ukrainian-speaking children too who might have reservations. Tough bananas, kids, there's only way out and it's east. With normal countries they will be reunited with their parents/ homeland/ homes at the end of the war when prisoners, refugees and other collaterals get repatriated.
But when the other country (1) doesn't recognise your country has any right to exist and that (2) you yourself are deep down one of theirs and not one of yours and (3) it happens to be Russia who never gives a monkeys about people anyway (theirs, yours or the Man in the Moon's), you can expect things will not be altogether plain sailing. Over to Hatty once more
| The abductions are the basis of the war crime allegation aimed at indicting Putin by the ICC |
This is factually wrong. It is not the 'abductions' that are being indicted (see above), nor was it the return of Ukrainian children that triggered it (it happened months ago). It was the fact that Ukrainian children have been (a) maltreated ever since they started arriving in large numbers back in the days of Mariupol and (b) propagandised into becoming Russian.
| so is there still a case against him? It's not clear if all the children returned |
It is extremely clear. Repatriated Ukrainian children can be counted in dozens, those still languishing in Russo-TLC is in the tens of thousands.
| but the repatriation seems to have been carried out without much brouhaha. I wonder why. |
Wonder no more. It was the result of strenuous brouhaha on the part of various western agencies and the Russians decided that the brouhaha was getting so intense, they had better throw a few dozen sops to the west. Though, as you have pointed out, this has proved to be a mistake on their part. There's nothing like crying kiddies to paint 'em black. Even if the bastards are actually even blacker. You just wait for the full story to emerge.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Hatty wrote: | | It's not clear if all the children returned but the repatriation seems to have been carried out without much brouhaha. I wonder why. |
Russian media is making a big thing about it, western media less so. I think part of the problem is do you give publicity to the individual "The Commisioner of Childrens Rights", who is charged along with Putin of committing a war crime, when they are refusing to co-operate with the investigation of this alleged crime but are now organising some returns.
Maybe there is a case for letting her get on with it, without hanging out the bunting just yet?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Maybe there is a case for letting her get on with it, without hanging out the bunting just yet? |
It's a genuine problem. Who's going to stop fighting (etc) when they know -- win, draw or lose -- they're going to be hoiked off to the Hague for a life inside an (admittedly well appointed) Dutch prison? Especially as western ideas of what is and is not acceptable is going to be the yardstick, not what is and is not perfectly normal in the African bush. We might end up in a situation where people who ignore Hague Conventions will always win over people who are fearful of them.
For instance, what is Maria Lvova-Belova guilty of apart from applying lawful and standard principles of Russian policy? Even allowing for her being ordered to do so not being a defence (which it should be, in my opinion). And maybe for having a Ukrainian/ Belarussian/ Polish name. She should look out. If they lose she may have her kids taken away and resettled in the west.
I'm still in favour of the Court but I wish they'd get inoculated with some realpolitik.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: |
For instance, what is Maria Lvova-Belova guilty of apart from applying lawful and standard principles of Russian policy?
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Well I guess they will have to ask her the question. Was, prior to the war, her understanding that the adoption of any children against the wishes of the foreign country from which they came legal in Russia? If it wasn't, then her unlawful actions in setting up an adoption programme, rather than working with the Ukrainian government and international agencies to try and return said children, might very well be a problem because she has only started organising these after the war / SMO started.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Well I guess they will have to ask her the question. Was, prior to the war, her understanding that the adoption of any children against the wishes of the foreign country from which they came legal in Russia? |
Aren't you missing the point? Russia denies that Russia is a foreign country and, if that won't wash, they were taking them to a place of safety. It will turn out that no child was 'adopted against the wishes of the foreign country from which they came'. Look! They've started repatriating them already for goodness sake.
| Rather than working with the Ukrainian government |
"Well, guv, we were at war with Ukraine and anyway they've got a long and pretty awful record of regarding Russian children as Ukrainian children. All over the Donbas for starters. You might consider summoning them to the Hague."
| and international agencies |
"Whadyamean? We just repatriated a whole bunch after talking with international agencies. More to follow."
| to try and return said children might very well be a problem |
"I should cocoa, they're all over the shop. Give us some names and we'll do our best."
| because she has only started organising these after the war / SMO started. |
"Exactly so. We'd never been faced with this problem before so we put our best man onto it."
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Expect Burkina Faso to seep into your media consciousness over the next extended news cycle because the Wagner Group have arrived in-country. This is bad news as far as the western media is concerned, good news as far as the folks of Burkina Faso are concerned.
Most of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa are currently in deep trouble but how they got to be so is not as important right now as how they are to get out of it. The current 'world community' model for helping them to is send in 'world community policemen'. They might be French, they might be UN, they might be OAU, they might be neighbours' but none of them have proved effective against the current model for insurgencies. Nobody fights (and maybe dies) in somebody else's fight so they all sit in heavily-defended enclaves, venturing out only to harass the nearest likely-looking insurgents, which are generally locals who didn't flee in time.
Unless you're paid to do it. Not by your government to be a soldier, that only covers hardship payments for sitting in faraway enclaves. It has to be a mercenary organisation who pays enough to get the job done. But it has to be a mercenary organisation not affiliated to a country with a free press who like nothing better than reporting on human rights violations. Because human rights have to be violated on the grand scale to get the job done.
Sorry and all -- it's just as distressing for me -- but that's the way it is. It is better that thousands of Burkina Fassians have a very, very rough time of it for a short while than millions of Burkina Fassians have a merely very rough time of it for an indefinite period. And there's a bonus. Unlike previous Russian interventions in Africa, the Wagner Group doesn't insist on leaving a Marxist government as their legacy. What they do leave won't be any great shakes but at least it won't turn Burkina Faso from being a living, breathing community of souls into an ideological nightmare for an indefinite period.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The Taliban government in Afghanistan is in the middle of an unholy row with the UN. The latter want to recognise the former -- they currently have an American stooge from the old days as the Afghani representative in New York -- and with it the unlocking of worldwide funds for Afghan relief. But they have hit a snag. The Talibans won't accept any women as part of the UN staff in Kabul. The UN are equally insistent. No way.
Who's right? The Taliban of course. The UN Charter forbids interference with the internal affairs of sovereign nations. It doesn't say anything about modish cant from western liberals. "It is better a million Afghans die than Mrs Chomondley-Smythe doesn't get that hardship posting she had her eye on." Sure, the Taliban are being complete arseholes but that is their sovereign right.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Agree, for consistency the UN should offer to recognise the Taliban, whilst the Taliban should as a point of principle refuse, as they do not aspire to become a nation state, they aspire to be a part of a Muslim ummah (it's a community, not nation) to be ruled by a single caliph.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Good one! They might wish to have a word with the Iranians about whether they ought to be United with so many infidel Nations. It can't be much fun being medieval in a thoroughly modern world. Did you know, for instance, mullahs are not allowed to use Carmen curling tongs on their beards?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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The world’s news cameras are back in Mogadishu to report on war-torn Somalia. They’ve got problems all right. The rents are so high, nobody can afford to live there. The entire city is alive with the sound of jackhammers as new apartment block follows new apartment block, hotel crowds hotel. The streets are alive with recognisably suave human beings going about their business. Dodging traffic is now the chief danger to life and limb.
We cut to a well-appointed café where the barista is interviewed. In an impeccably English accent, he explains that while Mogadishu is an expensive place to live, it beats Manchester any day of the week. “A whole bunch of us Somalis who had to get the hell out in the days of Al-Shabab have come back. We just love the old place. And, don’t forget, we return with new skills and a bit of money saved.â€
Well, I guess baristaring is a skill but the point is: Is this the way ahead for Africa? The liberal lobby in the First World is always saying, “We should be dealing with the problems that create mass migration, not punishing the migrants that get here†which has always been a daft argument since migrants are a problem in the here and now, banishing Third World poverty is a pious aspiration for the distant future.
Or maybe not. A true cynic would say, “Let’s treat them just badly enough so they’ll stay for a bit, then go home and solve Third World problems on our behalf.†It’s a pretty fine calculation though maybe another arrow in our armoury. Plus, who's going to pour my damned coffee now?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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President Erdogan has an election coming up in a few weeks. He has got out his rule book for 'populist strongmen in democracies with an election coming up', and arrested the leading figures of a major opposition party for 'supporting terrorism'. So far, ho hum, but there are some Turkey twists:
1. He has not touched the largest opposition party (Turkish-speakers opposed to him). That would be electoral suicide.
2. He has not touched the next largest opposition party (Kurdish-speakers wanting to secede from Turkey). That has already been banned for terrorism so he didn't need to.
3. Instead it is the leaders of the party Kurds have to vote for because their favoured vehicle has been banned. Turkish-speakers of all political persuasions are OK with that.
Turkey finds itself in the same position as their neighbours, Ukraine (and faraway Britain in the period 1880-1920). It's all very well clinging on to minorities who don't want to be in your country but it doesn't half make democracy difficult to operate.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The Kremlin has sacked its deputy defence minister, Colonel-General Mikhail Mizintsev, according to the Telegraph. This was the guy brought in to replace Gen Dmitry Bulgakov, who was held responsible for the logistics problems that occurred at the start of the SMO. If true it means that the May 9th victory parades might not feature as much new kit as the President was expecting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LogjY4OXyGM
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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I thnk part of Putin's problem is that his rabid (I know Mick) anti westernism means that he no longer watches US TV shows, if he did he would know that allowing another PMC (Private Military Company) into the fray is not the answer to his SMO as they always go rogue.
I know this, I watch NCIS, the contractors operating in Kabul are always the baddies. Always.
Still Poots is in the dark, so we now have the Gazprom army fighting alongside Wagner (err, they will soon be shooting each other) as well as the regular forces. You can add in the shady fascist paramilitaries and so on. Net result: you have more rival groups, each adopting their own tactics, complaining about the crap logistics whilst it's only the PMCs raking in massive profits. I have emailed Vlad about the dangers, but he won't reply.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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Could work.
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