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Questions Of The Day (Politics)
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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1) Ukraine is a big country Check

2) The front line of fighting is now equivalent to the distance between Kyev and Prague Czech

3) Russia simply did not have the trained manpower to undertake a successful invasion and administration of "New Russia" unless they were welcomed by a significant number of the population, who would help fight and admister the "New cities" Kherson is (was) a Russian-majority city.

4) This is not an existential fight for Russia But hasn't Putin made it so?

so those newly mobilised 30-40 year olds are not going to be much use. Russia needs fit 18 year olds, who will follow orders unthinkingly. Cheka

5) Russia is continually trying to shorten the front line by defensively using rivers etc because it does not have the manpower to attack. No army ever has enough manpower.

6) We are now 8 months in and Russia is not producing good new kit for its forces, it is buying in Iranian and Korean. No army ever has enough good new kit.

7) If your best hope is that the Republicans win the mid terms, or that the Germans will complain to Schulz that they need two hot showers a day, you are in a lot of trouble. Perpetual check
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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When the last census was undertaken in 2001, the census result was.

Kherson Region

Ukrainians 82.0
Russians 14.1
Belarussians 0.7
Tatars 0.5
Moldavians 0.4
Armenians 0.4
Crimean Tatars 0.2

You can argue that they faked it but why then did Crimea, then part of Ukraine, come out with

Russian 58.3 % majority??
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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In fact even in the Donbas the census paints a different story.

Donetsk Region

Ukrainians 56.9
Russians 38.2
Greeks 1.6
Belarussians 0.9
Tatars 0.5
Armenians 0.3
Jews 0.5
Azerbaijanians 0.2

Luhansk Region

Ukrainians 58.0
Russians 39.0
Belarussians 0.8
Tatars 0.3
Armenians 0.3

Russian folks think Ukrainians are Russians because they speak Russian?
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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I was just plain wrong about Kherson, though I have to say it is difficult tracking down numbers for the pre-1991 city of Kherson. I am very surprised given the general spread of Russian-speakers vis a vis Ukrainian-speakers in (a) the southern swathe of Ukraine generally and (b) in provincial Ukrainian cities generally. I do not accept the numbers for the Donbas unless there are large Ukrainian populations in the western parts of both oblasts.

But I don't think any of this has much bearing on present military operations. I hope to hell it has a massive bearing on future peace negotiations.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Wiley had previously pointed out a strange coincidence, that the Russians seem to be able to withdraw just in time, just as the Ukrainians approach, however they do leave behind all their kit, in a condition for the Ukrainianians to then use against them.

In Kherson the mystery deepens, the Russians actually announce they will withdraw, which at the very least will have put on notice the Ukrainian pursuit teams that they are going, and is an open invitation for the Ukrainians to fire at the 20 K troops needing to cross a very wide river, in ferries with the bridges shot out.

This is not to say that withdrawing from Kherson is not a wise move from a strategic view. It is to doubt the tactical wisdom of announcing it, and to also doubt the Russian ability to carry it out, with many newly mobilised, basically untrained troops in the art of river crossing. The Russians tried a river crossing in May, with elite troops, when they were going forward, and it resulted in their massacre. There is no reason that I can see, if the Russsians are not leaving their shells and armoured vehicles as some sort of local deal, that the Ukrainians just don't hit them whilst crossing. Of course it's easier for an armchair general to order firing on fleeing ferries, but this is war.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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So which side is following Sun Tzu’s Golden Bridge strategy as described in The Art of War?

“A surrounded army must be given a way out. Surround them on three sides, leaving one side open, to show them a way to life. Show them a way to life so that they will not be in the mood to fight to the death, and then you can take advantage of this to strike them.”
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Mr Fox might be needed rather than Sun Tzu.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=38_wILXdq6k
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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So the Ukrainians have Kherson, the only regional capital that Russia conquered for "New Russia". The new Russian (as oppossed to New Russian) "capital" of the annexed province of Kherson is now situated in Henichesk, that's as far as away from the old capital as they can be. It looks like very few of the 87% that voted to be annexed have opted to move to Henichesk maybe because their boss, Stremousov, was killed in a mysterious car accident there. Anyway, to allay concerns, Stremousov has postumously been declared a hero by Putin for his work supportting the annexation before the Ukrainians retook the abandoned capital, all, rather mysteriously, "without a shot fired" just a few weeks after the vote and "sing-along" concert.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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The Russian army that tunnelled out, like Mr Fox, are now digging tunnels in Crimea. Not sure why, as the Ukrainians would have to be daft to frontally attack and leave their forces stranded with a river at their backs during winter. Still stranger things have happened in New Russia. Maybe the Russians are preparing to meet a Crimean Spring offensive?
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Since the Crimean isthmus is a defenders dream and the Ukes have no amphibious capability, they'll have to wait for road traffic accidents to reduce Russian numbers. Though of course the water will be turned off -- I await to see whether the Russians blow the dam -- so they could just walk in brandishing bottles of Perrier.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Spot The Mistake

"The UK growth rate during the last quarter was adversely affected by a number of factors including the days off following the Queen's death."

It goes like this:
1. the GNP for the quarter is calculated
2. it is compared with the GNP for the previous quarter
3. the difference is expressed as a percentage growth (or decline as the case may be)

As it happens, every quarter is a bit different from every other quarter (an extra Sunday, Christmas falling in the middle of it, summer holidays, things like that) which are not particularly important in themselves but obviously make a vast difference when you are dealing with figures like plus or minus 0.6%. So they are built into the model. Or a queen's death. That isn't built into the model -- you have to, as it were, build it in in real time. It takes several minutes.

So please, no double counting.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Mick Harper wrote:
Since the Crimean isthmus is a defenders dream and the Ukes have no amphibious capability, they'll have to wait for road traffic accidents to reduce Russian numbers. Though of course the water will be turned off -- I await to see whether the Russians blow the dam -- so they could just walk in brandishing bottles of Perrier.


The Russians are trying to win by the use of battles. The Ukrainians are trying to win, like in Kherson, without battles. Until the Russians work out how to defend against this battleless strategy, or start making their own strategy work, they will continue to retreat.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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This was the condottieri strategy in Renaissance Italy but I'm not sure it entirely applies. I am assuming that one side is up for the fight and one side isn't. We all recall (and I certainly assumed) at the start that it would be the Russians up for it and the Ukrainians that would fold. Now the reverse is true, the Russians don't have much option but to retreat as carefully as possible and the Ukrainians have no need to advance other than bloodlessly.

When we reach a position that one side or the other cannot let go (the Crimean isthmus perhaps) it might be different.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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I really see nothing yet to suggest any learning on the Russian side. It's all we are bigger, have more men, we have a bigger airforce, more artillery, we have a navy, we have nukes, we beat the Nazis before, all of it is so so true. The war and Putin remain largely popular. Their coffers are full.

The fact they are up against a smaller smarter nation that is out-thinking, and -fighting them, totally passes the Rusias by. If they looked they would find they have managed to capture just one regional capital so far (Kherson), and that they then managed to then lose this without a fight. They have now lost over 50% of the territory gained at the start.

So the Russian position remains that they will win, by conventional battles, they just need more time to throw more resources at it.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Or, looking at it another way, they have

* completed their announced war aim of rescuing their persecuted compatriots in the Donbas
* succeeded in creating a territorial link between Russian territories in the Donbas and Crimea
* challenged Ukrainian control over Crimea water supplies
* without even having to mobilise Russia's vast potential military reserves.

But yes, generally speaking, I agree with you.
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