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Mick Harper
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Of course most probably the same advice will have to be given to both sides...

Apparently not. Leave asked, were given the all clear, so 'cheated'. Remain didn't ask, weren't told, so didn't 'cheat' even though they had lots of dosh left over as well. But don't tell the Remoaners, or we'll never hear the end of it. Like the Russian involvement in the Trump election, nobody bothers to mention that all this e-mullarkey has a scarcely measurable effect on outcomes.

It is true in very close races --not the 52-48 Brexit but quite possibly in the Trump knife-edge -- even scarcely measurable effects might be decisive. In overall terms even this is not very important. After all, Trump didn't win the popular vote anyway so what diff if he wouldn't have won by an even bigger margin? It's not the Russians' fault that the Americans have a stir-crazy way of electing presidents. Look who it got them? Yes, George W Bush!
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Wile E. Coyote


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That most ardent of europhiles, a certain Mr Blair, always admitted that there was already a two speed Europe, presumably with the UK Mini trundling along in the inside lane, watching the Citreons and BMWs swish by. Actually Chequers places us in the same slow lane, and in the same direction, with the option of taking a junction about 423.7894 miles (sic) in the future. It's a pretty sensible place to be if you ain't quite sure of your final destination.
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Mick Harper
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Correct. The AE precept of suck-it-and-see. But remember we were only permitted to be in the slow lane because we were big enough and noisy enough to be allowed to. Will this be true as we get out? More important, will it be true when we 'have got out'. The acid test will come when we start the internal discussions about how best to exploit our new, unique and unprecedented situation. I fear all such arguments will be hushed by a general "Oh, don't start that up again." On the contrary, we should follow the AE precept that old chestnuts should always be sucked to see.
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Mick Harper
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In politics it is always essential to distinguish the real from the symbolic. Take this 'common rule book' which is the hardliners' biggest objection to Chequers. What tosh! Any exports to the EU will have to conform to their rule book, same as exporting to anywhere does. You think Paraguay doesn't have a rule book? We are entirely free to make things to any other rule book we care to come up with, whether for internal use or for export to other countries. This is apart from the fact that the world mostly regards EU rules as Gold Standards so they are more of a plus than a hindrance.

And we won't have any input into changes to it? We only had one-twenty-eighth of an input before but, given that the UK is a major market, free to make competing goods any way she wants, one would think the EU rule-makers will take rather more notice of British wishes than when it didn't matter a tinker's cuss whether they liked it or lumped it.
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Mick Harper
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This apparent terminal rejection of Chequers by the EU raises an interesting possibility. If we crash out and if this can be portrayed as due to the intransigence of the EU then all Brits will cohere round an anti-EU position and make a stern Dunkirk resolve to roll up our sleeves etc etc. now we are all alone in the world through no fault of our own etc etc.

But everybody would have to ignore the fact that the EU's position has always been the same: you can have Norway (in, minus) or you can have Canada (out, plus) but you can't have anything else without destroying the EU itself since everybody currently inside the EU would be tempted by Britain's new position (in, out, shake it all about to our advantage).

"If only the UK would choose between Norway and Canada," says the EU, "we vill be 'appy to give you all kinds of little pourboires."
"Shan't!" says the UK.
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Mick Harper
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On the other hand, the Irish border might ride to our rescue. A corollary of crashing out is a hard Irish border. Two important components of the Brexit 'We don't mind crashing out' brigade are the Ulster Unionists and the Tory right. Both regard an Irish Sea border (which by the way we are committed to by international agreement if we crash out, though nobody ever admits this) as anathema.

There is just the possibility, if it is handled properly, they will reluctantly accept a Norway solution (the only one that retains a soft Irish border) temporarily while 'things are sorted out'. Just as the Irish border itself was adopted in 1922 temporarily while 'things were sorted out'. Theresa May's government will have to accept this equally reluctantly (it means ditching Chequers) to keep the party (and government) (and country) together. It is the Labour/Lib Dem/Green/Nationalists position anyway. So that's my prediction: a temporary Norway solution that becomes permanent.

Nobody will mention this for fear of re-awakening old quarrels (just as nobody ever mentioned the Irish border was supposed to be re-negotiated after 1922) but it is the position that we thought we were getting when we joined in 1973 and which we have been fighting for inside the EU by constantly dragging our feet ever since -- a frictionless free trade area with a minimum of political strings. And it's there if we want it!

But we can only get it by complete failure in all other respects. British genius.
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Wile E. Coyote


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There won't be a crash out, even if there is no deal. Folks will just carry on as per normal until that is.....one side of the border decides to police their side of the border.

We just allow it to carry on as per now, and let the other side take the flak if they intervene. We just make it clear that folks will be waived through. What the other side do is down to them.
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Mick Harper
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You are making a common error. Nobody gives a monkeys about the Irish border (except the Irish). It could be in Kilburn for all we care. In fact building a hard border between Kilburn and Hampstead would seal the real enemy off.
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Mick Harper
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But we can only get it by complete failure in all other respects. British genius.

I fear I have been oversanguine. Mrs May seems determined to scupper the natural order of things with her blend of insecurity and bluster. I had cause to note this when she U-turned at exactly the wrong moment over the Senility Tax during the election -- and threw that one away -- but now it looks as if she's taking the rest of us down with her. In case you were watching Red Hot Dutch XXX (Channel 632, not available in Hi-Def) when you should have been watching Newsnight, the facts are these:

1. Everything had been set up for Salzburg
2. Mrs May publishes an 'up yours, Delors' piece in Die Welt the day before
3. Mrs May has been given a ten minute slot at the Leaders Jolly
4. She reads out the Die Welt piece
5. Everyone is both bored and royally pissed off
6. Everyone briefs their displeasure
7. This is transmuted by the British press into a full blown crisis
8. Which, given the time scales involved, might really be the case.
9. I shall keep you posted
10. With one of my normal ten-point plans.
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Wile E. Coyote


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Monseigneur Macron, who is a newish player, is posing.

He does not realize that battle hardened Frau Merkel is not going to cough up the 40 billion Euro or so when the Chancellor, who already has a 60 Billion Euro trade surplus with the UK at risk, is trying to fend off those, on the home front, who can't see why they should bail out Greece and now Italy.......

Monsigneur could of course come up with the 40 Billion, and deal with some very angry French farmers.......in the event of no deal.

Or alternatively the EU could simply instigate 40 Billion of cuts.......or get the newer nations to up their contributions......
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Mick Harper
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Yes, this money is confusing everyone, especially Wiley. In the first place, there's not much of it. Everybody bandies around these huge figures (AE calls it 'the tyranny of large numbers') but they're small change. Once you express it as an annual amount, once you strip out the back-and-forth transfer payments, once you strip out what will have to paid anyway even if we flounce out saying we're not giving you no forty bills so there, you can stick it up your Eurojaxxie, I doubt either Frau or Monsieur would notice what is left.

And in the second place ... oh, don't get me started.
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Mick Harper
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Having sat through the entirety of the Ford/Kavanaugh hearings on your behalf, I can report that any fair-minded person would take Kavanaugh's side. In the end, there really wasn't much choice. Whether we want such a ghastly boy scout being the swing vote on the Supreme Court is another matter. But just remember, if he goes, we'll get someone worse.
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Mick Harper
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The backwash of Kavanaugh continues to provide fare for AE-ists. There can be no question that both Ford and Kavanaugh appeared to be telling the truth. In other words it is not, as everyone keeps saying, a 'she said, he said' situation. It is not a symmetric position at all since if it happened, he must be lying; if it didn't happen, she must be mistaken.

The evidence, such as it is, is wholly in his favour. Even the polygraph is rendered otiose if she is mistaken. But this all runs into one overarching consideration: can someone be mistaken about the identity of someone committing a memorable violation of one? We know from the many scandals of 'recovered memory syndrome' that this would certainly seem possible but then again partisans of recovered memory syndrome insist that they are (presumably mainly) true. But we cannot ignore the fact that the episodes recovered are overwhelmingly of sexual assault by males known to a female patient, and the partisans are overwhelmingly left/feminist (male or female).

Since we are none of the above, we have to come down, however provisionally, on Kavanaugh's side. But what happened next? That's just as interesting.
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Mick Harper
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So, it’s all cut and dried. Judge is confirmed. Bob’s uncle etc. Senator gets into lift and is waylaid by rape survivors. So, call in the FBI. To investigate the Judge not the waylayers. This is going to be very interesting. You have to remember that American officialdom is not under British-style restraint. You won’t need any actual skeletons to come out of the Judge’s closet before people start wondering why he’s in the closet in the first place. Even though he was never in the closet. In fact, it's established there never was a closet. So why is everyone on the 24/7 newscycle talking about closets? You answer me that one.

You're going dahn, my son.
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Mick Harper
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So, the Tory party conference begins. After a lifetime of experiencing British politics and a lifetime of studying British political history, I have never come across a government in such a disastrous condition. Not even nearly. The Tories are five points ahead of Labour. Truly, we are in an Age of Marvels.
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