Questions Of The Day (Politics)

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

This is all true but the war aims have changed too. Russia's would seem now to be limited to keeping Putin in office, while Ukraine's have shifted from survival to reconquest. Yes, Ukraine's warfighting capabilities have improved outasight but, as you say, have now reached their peak. Russia's can only improve and there is no practical limit to the resources it can deploy.

That is why it is Ukraine that must seek peace ASAP. Since that would appear to be impossible for internal reasons, wiser (Western) counsels must prevail. Since that would appear to be impossible for internal reasons, we shall have to watch, wait and (probably) despair. Unless someone remembers Clausewitz's slightly misquoted dictum, "War is politics by other means."

[Mick Harper]

Just a word about Russia 'going nuclear'. This is not as apocalyptic as everyone is running around screaming. A low yield atomic artillery shell is only the equivalent of a particularly effective barrage of WW2 Katyusha rockets i.e. it will clear the ground immediately ahead of infantry but will have little effect on armoured troops. The surprise use of them will have the same effect as WW1 gas attacks -- locally decisive at first, much less so once the opposition know they're in play.

But crucially they will be a very great handicap for advancing troops, especially advancing troops who are officially liberating their own territory. Not a good thing, but not necessarily all bad either. Unless some senile US president decides...

[Wile E. Coyote]

Given supplies of stored liquified gas, there is now no threat to Europe this winter of gas shortages.

Western European commentators consistently over-estimate our ability to damage Russia economically, and consistently over-estimate the Russians' ability to damage Europe.

[Mick Harper]

It's hard to tell who has the greatest talent for scaring the bejesus out of us, the government or the media. When the PM announced there was no need to worry about winter supplies, everyone cheered to the rafters. When the Energy Watchdog Dubry issued its annual report saying, as it does every year, there is a tiny prospect of minor inconveniences if unlikely scenarios A, B and C should all occur at the same time, we all went ape shit and started burning the PM in effigy.

Though on a remote Hebridean island they appeared to be using a real PM so one fears for Nicola Sturgeon's Highlands-and-Islands body double. She has seven altogether. Insiders know who's who from the colour of her otherwise identical suits. "Except you," as her therapist told her. "I'm not her," she told him, "I just attend her therapy sessions."

An elderly man was later escorted from the AEL's HQ.

[Mick Harper]

What people don't realise is that if (a) a leader has a rocky start but (b) survives, then (c) she will be enormously strengthened because (d) she will be perceived as a battler on an upward trajectory but (e) the effect will be over by Christmas and she will need another rocky period, except what the (f)-ing hell do I know, I just say these things to (g) everyone up.

Security staff have refused an elderly man entry to the AEL's HQ when he said he'd left some sandwiches in his desk.

[Grant]

I think I’ve worked out why everyone’s turned on Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng. It’s just plain old sexism and racism. (It took a sexist and racist like me to work it out.)

What’s the problem with Liz? Simple - she’s a sexy, big boobed woman. Instinctively we don’t believe such people should be ruling us. Successful female rulers are supposed to look like unattractive headmistresses.

As for Kwasi - he’s black. And proper black as well. Not even the sort of person of colour you would trust to run a corner shop.

And their crime? Giving 40 billion in unfunded tax cuts. Yes, Rishi borrowed 400 billion from the City and threw it at businesses, but 40 billion for ordinary people? Are you crazy?

[Mick Harper]

On the other hand there is the question of overall civic consciousness. Not in having a King Kong-style duo in charge of affairs, bubbly blonde and black beast, but in not mentioning we have a bubbly blonde and a black beast in charge of affairs. There does not seem to be any question of either tokenism or careful ignoral.

I was alerted to this happy strand in our governance when an American commentator, back in the days when Muslims were blowing up Americans, said incredulously, "The Brits have a Muslim as Mayor of London?" I had to check whether he was or not. "Very much not," his mum said with a sigh, remembering all those times she had to bribe him to go to the mosque. "Will you just give over, mum, I'm the Mayor of London, I need one day off a week."

[Mick Harper]

One thing that has been overlooked about the two incredibly inept Prime Minsters we have had lately -- Truss and May -- is that neither of them had been to male public schools. Blair, Brown, Cameron and Johnson had. Those four had had superiority ironed into their souls, the hapless duo hadn't. They suffered from, as the one titan put it, frit.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Jeremy Hunt seems to have interpreted his new role as Official Receiver, rather than as Chancellor. Not a good look for country.

[Mick Harper]

I'd better mark your card now I've been given the word from the top. The real top, I mean. Since the government is too far behind in the polls for a general election and the state of the markets is too febrile for an extended leadership contest, it has been agreed:

(1) Ms Truss will depart, as per Anthony Eden, on 'health grounds' as soon as it can decently be argued she has
(2) She will recommend to the Palace that Ms Mordant be appointed pro tem Prime Minister, which she will be
(3) Ms Mordant has agreed to retain Mr Hunt as Chancellor
(4) The Rishi-ites will get the Foreign Office and appurtenances
(5) The One Nation Tories will be offered a suite of departments dealing with soft stuff
(6) Mr Rees Mogg will depart to organise the Far Right into ineffectual opposition to 'this coronation without consulting the membership' etc
(7) Tories will do well enough at the 2024 General Election to prevent Labour doing their worst
(8) to (10) Some other stuff that you haven't been cleared to know about.

[Mick Harper]

Twenty-four hours on and the commentators are beginning to catch up with me. Ian Dale on Newsnight practically repeats the above word for word. But he pointed out one further crucial step. In order to reach the next general election and then survive it the Tory Party has to have the books balanced (however that is defined) by the time it takes place. That in turn requires Tory MP's to adopt policies that they as individuals, and in their grouplets, are fiercely opposed to. They all know 'it' has to be done, they all resolutely oppose one or more of the 'hows' necessary to get there.

As Dale pointed out, the whipping system has completely broken down, so it is now just a question of whether Tory atavism still operates. It has operated since the seventeenth century but will it operate 2022-24?

[Grant]

Liz Truss has been the most successful PM of recent years with Kwarteng her brilliant chancellor.
The biggest problem facing Britain’s economy was the crazy interest rate, the lowest, don’t forget, for three hundred years. Something had to be done and, by Jove, Kwasi and Liz did it.

Sadly the Tories, biggest shower in the party’s history, decided to knife her in the front. They presumably thought 3% interest rates could last forever reminding us that they aren’t called the stupid party for nothing.

[Mick Harper]

Almost my thoughts entirely. If the two of them had dug in and defied the markets to do their worse, they would have found the markets had done their worst. The Kwaz clearly thought this but was knifed in the front by The Liz. But it has to be acknowledged that the two of them were so tactically inept they had to go. It turned out not to be the markets that did for them, it was the fear of markets that did for them.

Which brings me to your other point about the Tory Party. This is not their fault, the entire British ruling elite are a shower. This is not their fault, the entire British people are a shower. This is not their fault, the entire human race is a shower. This is not their fault, it is a characteristic of living things. A literal shower, thanks to panspermia.

[Wile E. Coyote]