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Questions Of The Day (Politics)
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Mick Harper wrote:
An interesting theory but why would the Danes and the Swedes specifically be watching their satellite imagery? It could however be misadventure. The Russians have been turning things off and on again (as we computer technicians call it) so it might be that underwater pipelines don't take kindly to this kind of irregularity.

I reckon it's coz they are on high alert, on the look out for Russian ships and subs that have been violating their waters.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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You mean like they have ever since 1945 but a coupla months ago said simultaneously, "Damn it to hell, let's use satellite imagery."
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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More like, The Bear is throwing its weight around, we now need to put a lot more resources into looking. After discovering the first leak they are looking down the lines of the pipes narrowing the search for features of other leaks, leading to new discoveries.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Wile E. Coyote wrote:
The Russian special military force has withdrawn to at least behind the river Oskol, everything west of the river is abandoned. The Ukrainians will need to clear the abandoned area of any Russian units who did not get the planned withdrawal order, or were deployed to secure a safe retreat, then go around (if they haven't already) the river at Lymon. Zelensky saving 3000 sq Kilometres liberated in last few days.


I don't know what it is about the garrison at Lymon, but the defenders appear to be treating it as their "Alamo" as they appear to have allowed themselves to become encircled. Either that or their commander is not making them aware of the risk?
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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It is reported as having fallen five hours ago

The Ukrainians are now conducting another massive push and this time have liberated the major village of Lyman, a gateway to the rest of northeastern Ukraine. At this very moment, soldiers of the armed forces have now reached far beyond the city, capturing Russian tanks and infantry some of which are the first mobilized conscripts the army has run into.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Lyman has been misreported as fallen before, the Ukrainians are trying to encircle it, so their forces would be operating beyond Lyman and would be engaged with Russian forces trying to break the encirclement.
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Mick Harper
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This is all rather curious. Lyman is not a large town (20,000) so it would not seem possible to claim, as it was in the case of Mariupol, to have captured a place and yet have an enemy garrison holed up in a suburb. Ukraine is not completely scrupulous about such things but outright lying has not been its practice. Unlike some nearby powers I could name. Perhaps they are referring to the Lyman administrative area.

It is noteworthy that the last census showed it to have a Ukrainian-speaking majority, though presumably not after a couple of months of Russian occupation. Is all this a harbinger of a further large-scale advance, in your opinion?
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Mick Harper wrote:
Is all this a harbinger of a further large-scale advance, in your opinion?


Wiley is not expecting any more orders in Russian to "Get the hell out of Dodge" abandoning land and leaving valuable equipment and supplies behind. The Russian media will simply not beleve these are tactical retreats. So the Russians must now stay and fight.

There's little evidence that the Russians can fight on the back foot, "slowing" advance, so for the next few months I think you will see the Russians with orders to hold the front line, with the help of their newly mobilised reservists. If the Ukrainians actually want to advance they will have to encircle pockets of Russian troops, forcing surrender. Lyman could be the model for this. Who really knows? Lyman hasn't fallen yet and the Ukrainians haven't completed the encirclement.
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Mick Harper
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The last time this happened was in 1941 and the Russians lost several million soldiers. But I agree they don't seem to have much choice. As I have argued before, the Russians have for all intents and purposes an infinite number of troops to throw into any fight (as the Germans discovered) so I suppose it all comes down to
a) whether Putin has the time granted to Stalin
b) whether the Ukrainians are the super-troopers everyone, themselves included, believes

Since the answers are provisionally 'Yes' and 'No', we are in for a long war.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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The Russians are now trying to battle out of Lyman. Looks like they might have left it too late to get everyone out.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Yeah but that's the point with the Russians. They don't care. That's their big strength.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Mick Harper wrote:
Yeah but that's the point with the Russians. They don't care. That's their big strength.


Maybe they have rediscovered their inner "Bear", up to Lyman it's been a Russian case of "those who learn to run away, live to fight another day". Lyman has still not fallen and both sides are throwing more resources in. Heavy slugging.
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Sounds like Stalingrad. No, wait... I've got my heroes in a twist.
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Wile E. Coyote


In: Arizona
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Mick Harper wrote:
Sounds like Stalingrad. No, wait... I've got my heroes in a twist.


I was actually comparing it with their retreat from Kharkov a couple of weeks back. Don't get Wiley wrong, there is nothing wrong with going backwards, providing you don't leave your kit behind. Backwards is better than getting encircled. It looks like Lyman has finally fallen, but the Russians have slipped away eastwards. Wiley is starting to see a pattern here, the Ukrainians just arrive a couple of hours after the Russians left, having decided to abandon all their kit to the advancing enemy. Just mulling that over........
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Mick Harper
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In: London
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Now that is a really good back channel theory.

Putin: Look, Vlod, we'll retreat all the way back to the Rare Earth Line and then stage an epic stand. We'll let you know time and place.
Zerlensky: Roger, Vlad. You've got our list of things to leave behind so we can get NATO off our backs?
Putin: In hand. Have you lined up some good "honest brokers" to call for a peace without annexations.
Zelensky: Well, the Pope's honest and you couldn't get anyone broker than the British prime minister. Da-dah!
Putin: Yeah, Beyond the Fringe. Can't you give it a rest for five minutes. We can always put you back where we found you, you know. Anyway, don't worry about him, he's in our pocket.
Zelensky: Her.
Putin: Whatever.
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