Questions Of The Day (Politics)

[Wile E. Coyote]

If the Russians can't slow the attack behind the Oskol, where a long north-south river is protecting them, then they could start going backwards quickly again. They must surely try to hold Lymon for a few days to slow the advance, that is if only to start shelling the Ukrainian troops that are pausing, and then plan for further retreats and buy time for reinforcements.

Russia TV is starting to realise that the Special military operation is not not going as planned. They are still backing their tribe, but the tribe now feels an undefinable risk, if the operation continues. It is no longer clear they will be successful. Some can see the benefits of peace.

https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/1569070513909022720

[Mick Harper]

This is certainly a new development. It has to be remembered that while Putin's Russia is an autocracy, it is not a totalitarian state. TV is state-controlled but Putin is not the state. The three stages evolve through

1. When things are going well, the media is on message voluntarily.
(As would be the case in the west.)

2. When things are not going so well, the media has to be made to be on message.
(In the west it would be called self-censorship -- a combination of patriotism, pandering to the audience and a desire not to needlessly upset the government for a variety of reasons.)

3, When things are going positively badly, the media is preparing itself for possible change at the top by being -- shall we say -- nuanced. It cannot voice opposition but it can signal lack of total support.
(In the west, the tone would have changed through 180 degrees with demands that policies are changed, heads roll etc)

It may be time for me to start abandoning my own position that Russia has won/will win. But not yet.

[Wile E. Coyote]

A large number of Russian forces remain trapped around Kherson. The Ukrainians have been pounding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Antonivka_Road_Bridge trying to cut off these troops from being further supplied or retreating to safety.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Wile E. Coyote]

Azerbaijan and Armenia are shelling each other, the Russians will now be getting an Armenian request for help. If it's not forthcoming then Azerbaijan will go forward. The problems of Empire.

[Mick Harper]

Or it may be subtler than that. Russia has excellent relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan (how do they manage that?) so if they had a quiet word that hostilities should start up again... well, Russia will have to announce to the world, "In view of the dangerous implications of the current Armenia/Azerbaijan situation, we feel it our duty to bring the current Ukrainian situation to an end however damaging that may be to Russian interests."

[Wile E. Coyote]

Lieutenant General Roman Berdnikov has been sacked by Putin after just 16 days according to reports. True, a lot went wrong during those two weeks, including the loss of about 6000 sq kiliometres of territory. But, and call me out as old school...if he was that rubbish, shouldn't we be looking at the dude that appointed him?

Still, given the numbers of Russian Generals previously killed or captured, it could have been worse. He just needs to get through the debrief, in one or maybe two pieces. Wiley recommends his best bet is not to blame those in overall charge of the Special Military Operation but the armies from the breakaway republics, "ungrateful cowardly peasants, we came to rescue them and they let our gallant soldiers, our President, and Mother Russia down".

[Wile E. Coyote]

The Russian First Guards Tank Army has disappeared, according to the British Ministry of Defence. It has become "a lost legion". Was it lost, reorganised out of existence after its commander was disciplined, parts of it were captured? You were talking about 400 tanks, maybe up to 10,000 men, it was an elite unit.
.

[Mick Harper]

Tell the MoD they've got their labels in a twist. A Russian 'tank army' is the equivalent of an armoured corps in the British army i.e. two, three or four divisions grouped temporarily together for a single battle/campaign. While their divisions are smaller than ours, this certainly represents more than ten thousand men.

The 'Guards' appellation too is curious. The title was first handed out to units that fought well in the Great Patriotic War but no Russian unit has fought well since The Great Patriotic War. As an 'army' is always an ad hoc unit it is difficult to understand that 'a Guards army' could have survived intact for the last seventy-five years.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Zelensky is trolling Putin by staging a photo-op at Izyum. This sort of thing shouldn't be allowed by Twitter.

[Mick Harper]

I wish to unburden myself about Zelensky. While giving him all credit for standing firm, father of his people and all that stuff, there's no getting away from the fact that he is a mountebank. So was Churchill but the crucial difference was that Churchill was operating within a stable and sophisticated political system. Actually his mountebankism was probably an advantage in such a system in a time of war. Just as the arch-mountebank Lloyd-George was in the First World War.

What makes it worse is that Zelensky is a stage/Jewish/youthful mountebank, Churchill was a political/landed gentry WASP/mature mountebank. I predict Zelensky's mountebankism is going to cost Ukraine (and us) dear. Never in the field of human conflict has the word mountebank and its derivatives been used so often.

[Wile E. Coyote]

"Russian forces are reportedly transferring pieces for a roadway bridge from Crimea to Kherson."

Whilst no doubt this is an admirable mid- to long-term project, fact is the other two bridges are under constant shelling and the pontoon bridge remains incomplete. But that is the way bureaucracy works, the Ministry of Defence had ordered it during better times, so it must be delivered.

"Where would you like me to leave it, Oleg, I will just need a signature"

[Mick Harper]

Like I keep saying

1. A Crimea is a vital strategic asset for Russia
1. B Crimea is not a vital anything for Ukraine

2. A The Crimean population is mainly pro-Russian
2. B If it is part of Ukraine its population will consistently vote for pro-Russian candidates in elections

3. A Crimea is a nightmare to hold for Russia on account of the vulnerability of its links to Russia
3. B All of which are vulnerable to Ukrainian/international intervention

4. A Crimea is untenable without a mainland supply of water
4. B The water supply is in an area that has a Ukrainian population

5. A If the Crimea is in Russian hands, Ukraine (et al) has a permanent pressure point on Russia
5. B. If Crimea is in Ukrainian hands, Russia has a permanet casus belli against Ukraine.

6. A. Any fool can see Crimea should be given to Russia (with or without official recognition)
6. B. Any fool can see that Ukraine (et al) will fight to the last drop of blood (theirs) and treasure (ours) to 'return' Crimea to Ukraine.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Wiley is still confused about Russian war aims. I suspect it's a case of being so clever that they are making it up as they go along. The down side to this brilliance/flexibility is that Ukraine has successfully mobilised their population behind the idea that the country's existece is at stake, and if they are ever to have peace they need to get back to the 1991 border (administrative line), with territorial guarantees from the west. I would be surprised if the Ukrainians are not going to try and take back Crimea by force.

[Mick Harper]