| View previous topic :: View next topic |
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
 |
|
Two good examples of misapplied panic followed one another on the news today
1. A nine-year-old girl gets accidentally shot in Liverpool and the entire country goes into panic mode even though it's an almost unique incident (and gang shootings in Liverpool so common).
2. News that the German chancellor is in Norway trying to get their gas (which the Norwegians need plenty of themselves because the drought is drying up their hydro-electric). Britain is one of the most gas-dependent economies in the world, it gets a third of its gas from Norway, and a whole bunch more from the 'open market'. The government assures the nation there is no need to panic.
PS I have mentioned it before but when we were divvying up the North Sea economic zones with the Norwegians back in the seventies we gave a large disputed slice to them to keep them sweet. Ah, bless. Guess where a large slice of the gas turned out to be?
|
|
 |
|
 |
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
| Mick Harper wrote: | I am now satisfied that Russia has won the Ukraine war and there is nothing anyone can realistically do about it. This raises the following issues
|
Why doesn't Putin then declare victory and the end of the "Special Military Operation?"
When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, President Vladimir Putin explicitly denied any intention of occupying his neighbour. He said then that his aim was to demilitarise and "denazify" Ukraine. That has not been achieved, Ukraine is more miltarised than ever and the hated Zelensky still in power. The Donbas still has not been taken, Russia has for now won in Luhansk but not in Donetsk. The devastation is so bad in the former that it will take years to rebuild. So Wiles concludes that the Russin "special military operation" aims are not complete. The aims are changed and they now plan as Lavrov states further advances in the South supplied by their bases and fleet in Crimea. Both sides are currently "paused", having fought to a stanstill in Donbas, and both are shifting more forces and logistics to around Kherson. That is where the next offensive or counter- offensive will be. Winter is coming.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
| Why doesn't Putin then declare victory and the end of the "Special Military Operation?" |
You're assuming Putin is as strategically gifted as I am. But there's no need, he's sitting pretty. Earning vast sums from sky-high energy prices, making new friends all over the world and watching the west squirm.
| When Russia invaded Ukraine on Feb. 24, President Vladimir Putin explicitly denied any intention of occupying his neighbour. He said then that his aim was to demilitarise and "denazify" Ukraine. That has not been achieved, |
Why is it people take Putin at his word when it suits them and assume he's a pathological liar when it suits them? Me, I just judge by actions.
| Ukraine is more miltarised than ever and the hated Zelensky still in power. |
Why does Russia care? The Ukraine is not a threat to them.
| The Donbas still has not been taken, Russia has for now won in Luhansk but not in Donetsk. The devastation is so bad in the former that it will take years to rebuild. |
Why does Russia care? It's got all the old fashioned industrial areas in need of rebuilding that it can handle already.
| So Wiles concludes that the Russin "special military operation" aims are not complete. The aims are changed and they now plan as Lavrov states further advances in the South supplied by their bases and fleet in Crimea. |
Why is it everybody except me knows what the Russia war plans were, are and will be?
| Both sides are currently "paused", having fought to a stanstill in Donbas, and both are shifting more forces and logistics to around Kherson. That is where the next offensive or counter- offensive will be. |
Yes, see above. If you think the outcome of any such offensive/ counter-offensive will be different from what we have been witnessing for the last six months you should replace me as the AEL's military correspondent. If you are proved right.
Strictly speaking, autumn is coming. Then winter. Then spring. Then summer. I can send you the 'AEL Guide to the Seasons' if you want to brush up on them. State hemisphere.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
|
Sergei Shoigu has blamed the “slowed pace†of recent advances not on a lack of munitions but on Russia’s desire to avoid civilian casualties. It's nice he has a "touchy feely" side to his personality. This would never have happened under Uncle Joe.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
|
Joe Biden has described the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement as "almost semi fascist". He went on, “It’s not hyperboleâ€... “Now you need to vote to literally save democracy again.â€. He probably should have just said "Winter is coming.".
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
|
Nobody has pointed out that it is a forlorn task. You only get one crack at being Great (unless you're China) and America's been and gone. Or so history says.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
| Zelensky wrote: | | Ukraine is returning its own. And it will return the Kharkiv region, Luhansk region, Donetsk region, Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson region, Crimea, definitely our entire water area of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov - from Zmiinyi Island to the Kerch Strait. This will happen. This is ours. And just as our society understands it, I want the occupiers to understand it, too. There will be no place for them on Ukrainian land. |
Zelensky, or his generals, are now firmly within the western military tradition. They clearly state their war aims.
Whilst aims are stated the tactical specifics remain hidden.
| Zelensky wrote: | Anyone want to know what our plans are? You won't hear specifics from any truly responsible person. Because this is war. And this is what it is during the war.
But the occupiers should know: we will oust them to the border. To our border, the line of which has not changed. The invaders know it well.
If they want to survive, it is time for the Russian military to flee. Go home. If you are afraid to return to your home in Russia - well, let such occupiers surrender, and we will guarantee them compliance with all norms of the Geneva Conventions. |
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
|
Why does the Tory leadership election not go on for longer? It seems that Liz hasn't got time to be interviewed by Neil or Robinson. Wiley reckons they should extend it at least into 2023, to give Liz the chance to get her views over.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
Rule 101 from The Warfighter's Manual
| You never, ever state your war aims |
Show me a country who has ever done so and I'll show you a loser. Or a winner that is furious because it didn't get all its war aims. Or a country that is permanently either at war in order to achieve its war aims or a permanently in fear because it did, which means somebody else didn't. If you leave everything a bit vague there will be peace and tranquility at some time in the not too distant future.
And to think, we're saddled up to this looney tune. We'll be paying sky high fuel bills until (a) Ukraine has reconquered the Kharkiv region, Luhansk region, Donetsk region, Zaporizhzhia region, Kherson region, Crimea, the entire Ukrainian areas of the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, from Zmiinyi Island to the Kerch Strait
and
(b) Russia is happy about it.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
https://bit.ly/3KtRtBj
There is plenty of specualtion about how good she looks for a woman who died in a car bomb. Maybe Scotty has a view.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
I'm happy to give Scotty a bit of help on this one. I shall have to paraphrase to protect my sources.
The funeral was open casket because there were not that many burns (the force of the explosion ejected the body which landed in the middle of the street) and led to the first conspiracy. She’s alive.
Nope. Her father Alexandr Dugin is a follower of occult practices and killed his daughter, or had her killed, because a proper human sacrifice may actually get the war to correct its course and be won. An FSB general suggested that Alexandr organize the fake murder of his daughter but in reality take Daria out, placing the corpse of an outside woman disfigured beyond recognition, but Dugin resolutely rejected this proposal, saying that if the truth was revealed, it would be a disaster for everyone.
I've offered to sacrifice my own children to get the inflation rate down but Liz Truss says she's got it in hand so I'll just have to go on paying their fuel bills. Well, it's that or them moving in with me.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
Rule 101 from The Warfighter's Manual
| You never, ever state your war aims |
I disagree, I reckon the Ukranian soldiers have a much clearer understanding of what they are fighting for (the why am I risking my life for this question?) than their Russian counterparts.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
|
You are sadly mistaken if you think soldiers have any thoughts over and above personal comfort, self-survival and an anxiety not to look bad in front of their mates.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
|
|
|
|
I am not entirely clear why everyone is describing the Tories as 'this deeply divided party'. What they probably don't know is that two of them have been running for the leadership of the party for the last month and you have to be deeply divided when doing that. I haven't noticed any parties-within-parties coalescing behind either candidate. More: "Ooh, I hope he wins"/"Ooh, I hope she wins."
As for their 'wildly differing views about how to pull Britain out of this crisis', I've forgotten (if I ever knew) precisely how they differ but I can confidently predict we'll be out of it by the time of the next election whatever polices are pursued (or indeed none). Then it'll be the usual toss-up between boring (Tories) versus worrying (Labour). Unless Keir has his way and it is to be boring (Labour) versus worrying (Tories). I know who my money is on. Arsenal to get into the Champions' League.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
|
|
|
|
| Mick Harper wrote: | | I am not entirely clear why everyone is describing the Tories as 'this deeply divided party'. |
I'm not.
The members want another Thatcher, Liz Truss has modelled herself on Thatcher. The members are going to vote for Truss in a landslide. The MPs will soon be whipped into line. She has an effective majority, even if a few mavericks have a whinge, or Sunak has a mope.
The next election will be a sort of "sensible wannabe neo Cleggite" against a "redivivus Thatch." The Greens are now a more "Year Zero" than "Net Zero". There is plenty of choice.
|
|
| |
|
|
|
|
The Library Index 
FAQ 
Search
Register
Profile 
Log in to check your private messages 
Log in 
