Questions Of The Day (Politics)

[Mick Harper]

As we watch the war unfold from our armchairs, we can look out for examples of AE's 'the tyranny of large numbers'. No news channel went bust underestimating the number of casualties but they might go bust if they just make them up, so the principle goes like this

1. Someone with some claim to authoritativeness gives an estimate for, say, Russian military casualties
2. That becomes the number for all news outlets
3. Gradually the qualifying 'estimated', 'reported', 'it is said' etc fall away
4. Some 'editorial drift' is permissible
5. Step one is repeated but only if the number is higher
6. The ratchet continues, always going up, never coming down
7. It is never reported that the only source for these figures can be Ukrainian military authorities who have a reason to push the figure up, either wittingly or optimistically
8. Including re-incorporating 'widely reported figures' i.e. from news channels
9. Russian figures are routinely rejected as being propagandistic
10. All news outlets are tacitly on the side of the Ukrainians.

[Mick Harper]

Only an African could take comfort from having boundaries that, yes, have kept wars between states to a minimum but, yes, internal wars to a maximum.

[Wile E. Coyote]

[Mick Harper]

Naturally I've given this some thought. If you go back to the events that started all this viz

the toppling of the democratically-elected but Russian-stooge president
the instalment of an anti-Russian regime in Kiev bent on joining NATO
the breakaway of the two provinces

then it is fair to say that the Crimea operation was a bit of a lash-up. That does introduce the cock-up theory of history re the water supply but, I agree, more likely it was 'gamed'. Given the various pressure points Russia holds over Ukraine generally, presumably the planners calculated the Ukrainians wouldn't dare/and or could be negotiated into not damning the river. (By the way, I would have thought that a fairly formidable operation in itself. Stopping up rivers permanently is not something I've heard about before. Anyone?)

But assuming the Ukrainians going ahead came as a disagreeable surprise, what were the alternatives? As you say, the Russians have been hurling enormous resources -- a bridge, forsooth -- into the Crimea. I don't know the logistics but piping water in for two million civilians and a burgeoning military/industrial complex does not seem a feasible operation.

Let's not forget that nationalist/populists like Putin can afford to make risky advances, they can afford to do nothing, but they can never, never be seen to retreat. Is the whole world on their back worth the candle? That's nothing new for Russians so I reckon it is. And don't call me a creep.

[Grant]

Surely cutting the supply of water is alone justification for Pooty Poot (as Bush junior called him) attacking Ukraine?

[Grant]

Biden must now be terrified that Russia will discover just how much money was paid to him and Hunter. President Kamala soon I reckon

[Mick Harper]

[Grant]

Quite amazing how the BBC can’t find anyone in East Ukraine who supports Putin, or indeed anyone in Russia who supports him. I appreciate I’m a crazy conspiracy theorist but it astonishes me that the masses seem to lap up the propaganda

[Mick Harper]

The partisanship has been quite shocking and across the board. Normally western news gatherers (among whom I include Al-Jazeera, the only one worth watching for comprehensive coverage) make a pretence at some kind of objectivity but not with this one.

Contrast the BBC and the Falklands when they nearly lost their licence for not being rah-rah enough.

[Mick Harper]

This means we have to be hesitant about accepting the party line that 'the Ukrainians are putting up a stiff resistance'. Apparently all the western media are privy to Russian war plans as 'they are behind schedule'. All I know is that Ukrainian casualty figures are incredibly low for a country fighting for its existence and a country 'the size of France and Germany put together' (or whatever it is) seems to have been largely conquered in forty-eight hours.

That said, my judgement is they're doing better than expected.

[Mick Harper]

I had to laugh at the young dude declaring fire and brimstone about what he intended doing to the Russians after being stopped at the Polish border by Ukrainian authorities because he was of military age.

[Mick Harper]

It is time to look at President Zelensky. Jewish, I learned yesterday. They used to count in these parts -- Odessa was once the largest Jewish city in the world -- but presumably irrelevant now. Though Putin's personal animus should be noted. It is never wise underestimating Russian anti-Semitism.

More to the point is that Zelensky is (a) an actor who played the Ukrainian president in a TV series and (b) he got seventy per cent in the real-life presidential election. Which tells you a bit about Ukraine being 'a democratic country'. But as the (non-elected) Churchill will adduce, acting the part is half the job.

How's he doing? He gets top billing for staying in beleaguered Kiev but he strikes me as being on the flaky side despite talking -- and one would have to say administratively acting -- tough. We shall have to see. He was badly advised though about 'seeking talks'. You never talk peace when you're asking people to fight and die. That's War Leadership 101.

[Wile E. Coyote]

Zelensky seems to be winning the propoganda war, having two former heavyweight world champions (one of whom is mayor) actively organising up on the front helps. I note that Russian sports stars are now bravely posting up anti war messages.

If they can hold out a day or two and force the Russians to then try and take Kiev street by street, this could go badly wrong for Putin, and actually the world....because the ignoral is, the west would all be safer if the Ukranians surrender and we could travel to a stable new Cold War 2, which the Russians will slowly lose just as they did the first.

Still the Ukrainians have a right to self defence.

[Wile E. Coyote]

I notice the Taliban have called on both sides to resolve their differences and seek a peaceful solution.

[Mick Harper]

Do you know if the Ukrainians keep their bank reserves in New York?