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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Kadyrov is apparently critically ill. The Chechen warlord is a close ally of Putin, he tried to rush his guys to defend Moscow whilst the Proghozin mutiny was taking place, as the army wasn't doing anything.
This breaks the rule of same effect, same cause, which has led ortho to believe Putin (the dictator) is killing off all his rivals, so for ortho Kadyrov's death will have to be put down to a pre-existing medical condition.
Shoigu is yet again the beneficiary as another former friend of Putin (cf Prigozhin) and leader of a private army is helpfully eliminated.
Not many folks are going to be willing to criticise Shoigu now.
Certainly not President Putin..........
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Ishmael
In: Toronto
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If you apply the rule of same effect same cause then the CIA was responsible for the attacks on both Kadyrov and Proghozin.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Of course Putin can't see it, because in his own mind Shoigu was a "friend". To Putin he has never been a political threat as Shoigu is not an ethnic Russian.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Let's go back to Prigozhin, prior to his demise he had stated something of interest.
| BBC wrote: | In his latest video tirade via Telegram, Prigozhin blames Shoigu for starting Russia's war in Ukraine in February last year.
Speaking first about the fighting in eastern Ukraine that began in 2014 after Russia's military intervention, Prigozhin said: "We were hitting them, and they were hitting us. That's how it went on for those eight long years, from 2014 to 2022. Sometimes the number of skirmishes would increase, sometimes decrease."
"On 24 February [2022] there was nothing extraordinary happening there. Now the Ministry of Defence is trying to deceive the public, deceive the president and tell a story that there was some crazy aggression by Ukraine, that - together with the whole Nato bloc - Ukraine was planning to attack us.
"The war was needed... so that Shoigu could become a Marshal, so that he could get a second Hero Star… the war wasn't for demilitarising or de-nazifying Ukraine. It was needed for an extra star." |
This was interpreted as Prigozhin blaming Shoigu as he was unable to directly attack Putin and that Putin would have be fully aware that there was not a planned NATO attack, and that Putin was fully aware that the Ukrainians were not governed by Nazis.
Fair enough, we know that Prigozhin was a liar.......
Still, could it be the case that, as Prigozhin said, it was actually Shoigu who was pushing for a full war and invasion of Ukraine?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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This makes Putin a complete cat's paw. I don't doubt his motives were not as stated at the time he launched the war but he had entirely rational Russian reasons for doing so viz
* bringing to an end the incessant instability in the Donets on Russia's doorstep
* getting hold of the Crimea Canal, without which Crimea is untenable
* annexing, or creating a de facto protectorate over, Ukraine.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: | This makes Putin a complete cat's paw. I don't doubt his motives were not as stated at the time he launched the war but he had entirely rational Russian reasons for doing so viz
* bringing to an end the incessant instability in the Donets on Russia's doorstep
* getting hold of the Crimea Canal, without which Crimea is untenable
* annexing, or creating a de facto protectorate over, Ukraine. |
He hasn't achieved any of your stated objectives. I have been perplexed right from the start of the time that you mentioned the canal as a reason for war, why they did not just instigate a small bespoke military operation to secure the dam and canal. They actually achieved this within a few weeks of the SMO, having made Crimea a platform for a future attack on this area. It was surely an achievable and holdable objective on its own, and I doubt you would have the type of western reaction you had, as you got over the full-scale invasion, including dropping paratroopers into Kyev airport. This smaller "rational" cautious operation would surely have been considered. Maybe not. If not. Why?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| He hasn't achieved any of your stated objectives. |
Not for want of trying.
| I have been perplexed right from the start of the time that you mentioned the canal as a reason for war, why they did not just instigate a small bespoke military operation to secure the dam and canal. |
Because they couldn't. The Crmea was occupied, the Donets was in play but the rest of Ukraine was completely out of reach. To get the Canal required an actual war against Ukraine. If this is necessary anyway why not go the whole hog?
| They actually achieved this within a few weeks of the SMO |
I rest my case.
| having made Crimea a platform for a future attack on this area. |
I reopen my case. The Crimean occupation, if you remember, was an ad hoc operation, in the middle of a Ukrainian political crisis, that was achieved with little opposition from either Ukraine or the world. Crimea itself was widely regarded as more Russian than Ukrainian. This does not apply to the Crimean Canal which, if the Russians thought about it at all, they presumably assumed they could do a deal with Ukraine about. The water is profitable from Kyiv's standpoint only if it goes to Crimea, it just flows into the Black Sea otherwise. When Kyiv didn't play ball it required a whole new ball game.
| It was surely an achievable and holdable objective on its own |
Absolutely no chance. An advance across the Crimean isthmus, with supply lines running all the way back over the Crimea Bridge?
| and I doubt you would have the type of western reaction you had, as you got over the full-scale invasion, including dropping paratroopers into Kyev airport. This smaller "rational" cautious operation would surely have been considered. Maybe not. If not. Why? |
If I had been advising Putin I would have said go for the whole enchilada. Capturing Kyiv from Belarus is a lot easier than capturing the Crimea Canal from Crimea.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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| Mick Harper wrote: |
| It was surely an acheivable and holdable objective, on its own |
Absolutely no chance. An advance across the Crimean isthmus, with supply lines running all the way back over the Crimea Bridge?
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They had the Sea of Azov, the Black Sea and the Kerch Bridge. How is this more difficult than, say, supplying Crimea before the Kerch Bridge was constructed?
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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1. Russia occupied the Crimea without opposition
2. Russia could not occupy the Crimea Canal without opposition so didn't
3. Russia built the Crimea Bridge to supply Crimea
4. Russia found Crimea untenable without the Crimea Canal
5. Russia decides to launch war against Ukraine to get the canal
6. This could be done using the Wiley Plan, a small bespoke military campaign to capture dam and canal by advancing across the Crimean isthmus with forces in the Crimea and with supply lines running back across Crimea to the Crimea bridge, against Ukrainian forces who might or might not be beaten by these local forces, might or might not have allowed the dam or the canal to fall intact to the Russians, might or might not accept a fait accompli if everything went well for the Russians.
7. Adopt the Harper Plan.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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Prigozhin did not address this as far as I know, his criticism was that he thought they were fighting and dying heroically for one thing, ie against Nazis, against an imminent western attack with Ukraine used as a western base, and it wasn't the case. He believed Putin was being misinformed about the situation on the ground. It was Prigozhin's belief that Shoigu was the prime instigator. I treat this claim seriously. I may be wrong. Prigozhin was a known liar.
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Wile E. Coyote
In: Arizona
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The genius of the Xi plan has to be able to turn what is left of the Russian Empire into vassals of the Chinese.
The Russians could have easily continued to turn westwards, the economy was going well, infrastructure was in place and ready to be expanded, oil and gas pipelines were being constructed, there were extensive rail connections, convenient ports. The Russian middle class was buying western consumer goods, they were going on wetsern holidays, the wealthy few had homes in London, New York, they were wearing latest Paris fashion, their money was hidden in Switzerland and Cyprus, their children were attending private western schools and universities. Life was good.
No longer. Whatever the outcome of the Russo Ukrainian war, the big winner will be the Chinese. They have secured cheap oil. They will get cheap gas eventually, as a Trans Siberian pipeline will eventually be built on very favourable terms for the Chinese. Shoigu's proposed new cities will be built in his native Siberia to support the new gas lines, each will be homes to millions of people. The Russian middle classes will be forced to opt for Chinese-made consumer goods. China will secure favourable trade deals. Russia will end up using Chinese micro chips, mobile phones. Life might be good for Russians but only if they do what the Chinese want. They will have to have a more eastern perspective, not a western one.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| Prigozhin did not address this as far as I know, his criticism was that he thought they were fighting and dying heroically for one thing, ie against Nazis, against an imminent western attack with Ukraine used as a western base, and it wasnt the case. |
I refuse to believe he was that naive.
| He believed Putin was being misinformed about the situation on the ground. |
I refuse to believe Prigozhin believes that Putin is that naive.
| It was Prigozhin's belief that Shoigu was the prime instigator. |
I refuse to believe that Prigozhin is so naïve as to believe that Shoigu was the prime instigator.
| Prigozhin was a known liar. |
I'm not so naive as to use the past tense without qualification.
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Mick Harper
Site Admin
In: London
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| The genius of the Xi plan has to be able to turn what is left of the Russian Empire into vassals of the Chinese. |
If it's a plan do we know yet whether it is a genius one?
| The Russians could have easily continued to turn westwards, the economy was going well, infrastructure was in place and ready to be expanded, oil and gas pipelines, were being constructed, there were extensive rail connections, convenient ports. The Russian middle class was buying western consumer goods they were going on western holidays, the wealthy few had homes in London, New York, they were wearing latest Paris fashion, their money was hidden in Switzerland and Cyprus, their children were attending private western schools and universities. Life was good. |
I feel a but coming on...
| No longer. Whatever the outcome of the Russo Ukrainian war, the big winner will be the Chinese. |
If it was their plan were you expecting them to be the big losers?
| They have secured cheap oil. |
Alas, no. The Chinese pay the same price as everyone else, which went up a lot, down a lot and has settled down to up a bit. They presumably get a bit off for the relatively small amounts of Russian oil they import as part of some overall package.
| They will get cheap gas eventually, as a Trans Siberian pipeline will eventually be built on very favourable terms for the Chinese. |
I can only comment nearer the time.
| Shoigu's proposed new cities will be built in his native Siberia to support the new gas lines, each will be homes to millions of people. |
Russians will be incentivised to live in Siberia in exchange for cheap gas? Rather them than me.
| The Russian middle classes will be forced to opt for Chinese-made consumer goods. |
Like the rest of us.
| China will secure favourable trade deals. Russia will end up using Chinese micro chips, mobile phones. Life might be good for Russians but only if they do what the Chinese want. They will have to have a more eastern perspective, not a western one. |
Like the rest of us.
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