Questions Of The Day (Politics)

[Mick Harper]

The transition from America to China as the Hegemon Power is happening much more rapidly than was thought possible in the absence of a war. Traditionally it costs states a lot to become Top Dog, so far China hasn't paid a penny. Even worse news, from the point of view of the rest of the world, is that it is quite evident from Xi's policies that China is not prepared to be a Mercantilist Hegemon, on the twentieth century model of the US or the nineteenth century one of the UK. And just to round off the bad news: the Chinese are vastly more proficient than either of the two previous candidates, Russia and Germany.

The outcome cannot be prevented, the process though can be managed. America has to be in there pitching, the big question is why are Britain and Australia involved?

[Grant]

What are these non-mercantile policies of Xi? He hasn’t bombed any countries as far as I can see, and any territorial disputes are with neighbours. China has never bothered with expanding beyond its borders except to protect the nation, ie Tibet.

Pretty soon we are going to see a Russia-China pact. Russia supplies the oil and food; China the weapons.

[Ishmael]

[Mick Harper]

Yes, I see I worded that wrongly. What I meant was that the USA has failed the last few times it tried.

[Mick Harper]

[Mick Harper]

This is the key to it all.

[Mick Harper]

You will recall this all harks back to last year when Australia 'suddenly' announced it was ending its long-standing programme of buying/building French nuclear submarines and switching over to buying/building US/UK nuclear submarines. The French were furious, not just at the loss of such a lucrative contract, but because it had been sprung on them out of a clear blue sky. The French being furious with the Australians could be borne, their being furious with the Brits and the Americans was serious Great Power politics.

Why did the Australians do it? Why did they switch and why didn't they go through the usual process of "Je m'excuse, Marianne, but domestic and international considerations means, regretfully, we must part. Let us discuss a severance package so we can stay good friends"? Only something big, something super-secret could possibly account for this.

[Mick Harper]

Super-secret means even I don't know so from here on in we are in the realms of learned speculation. The Americans understand they cannot take on the Chinese

1. In the Americas -- where the Chinese are largely absent
2. In Europe -- where the Chinese are largely absent
3. In the Middle East -- where the Chinese are largely absent
4. In Central Asia -- where the Americans are (now) largely absent
5. In Africa -- where the Chinese are racing away

Which leaves the Far East, Australasia and the bits in between. Here at least the Chinese are most certainly present and the Americans are not just present, they have a stackful of allies and a vast military infrastructure to go with it. So now what?

[Mick Harper]

The one area the west still has a lead over China is in submarine technology -- not just nuke missile ones, all sorts. So a deal was done. These are the basics:

1. The Americans need Perth/Freemantle as a submarine base (like it was in WW2)
2. The Australians would prefer not to advertise to the Chinese they have become Airstrip One for the Yanks
3. The Brits want to talk the talk but they can't afford to walk the walk so they've been contracted to build some of the new subs
4. To camouflage everything a bit of sub-fitting out has been sub-contracted to the Australians
5. Everything basically is going to paid for by the Yanks
6. All submarines in the Far East, whichever flag happens to be flying on the conning tower, will be under American control

Look out China, the barbie-dolls are coming!

[Mick Harper]

The DUP are a right spectacle. No matter how disgusting the Ulster Unionists have been since day one, one always had to admire their political astuteness. Not any more. Wandering around like headless chickens.

Everyone knows the Windsor deal is the best deal anyone's ever going to get
Everyone knows it puts Ulster into a spectacularly advantageous position -- a foot in both camps without having to do the splits
Everyone knows the real objection is that by accepting Windsor the DUP will have to powershare under not over Sinn Fein

Actually, now I come to think of it, the DUP have been rather astute. They'll get Windsor but not Sinn Fein. Who cares if Northern Ireland won't have a government? It's not their problem. The Brits will come to the rescue, as they always do. Though now it's the EU and the Brits.

[Mick Harper]

This demand for 'the complete re-organisation of the Met' is getting weirder and weirder. The latest reason? "It's racist, sexist and homophobic" according to a report from Lady Somebody or Other. I bet she's right at the sharp end. Can I just point out one or two inescapable facts about the police

1. They're always a bit behind the times. Nobody else would want to put on a uniform and walk about doing nothing very much.
2. They are never a long way behind the times. Policing involves consent so they can't afford to be too dinosaurish.

When it comes to racism, sexism and homophobism, the Met Police are about average. More enlightened than some provincial forces, less enlightened than some foreign forces. If they were completely re-organised they would come out the other side 'about average'. If Baroness von Hampstead had said the Met Police were 'inefficient, corrupt and overpowerful' then maybe I would support a demand for their complete re-organisation. But not for this. Sorry, illiberal police are just something you have to put up with.

[Wile E. Coyote]

It is really a bit of a bugger, when most other nations are seeking to improve their Police, they can send off their researchers to a world leader, like England, to resolve this, yet we are denied that possibility so we end up trying to model ourselves on the United States (not so good from what I hear). Still, we could maybe hop across the Channel as I understand they have very good diversity programmes amongst the gendarmerie around Marseilles, that is apart from when they are batoning Africans. Italy is another fine example of enlightened police work, I hear from my friends in the Mafia, they are remarkably sesnsitive and don't want to convict you. Spain unfortunately is a no gracias, err, look at what they did to the Catalonian nationalists. Still, Canadian police are remarkably good in some diversity areas, eg the Mounties do love their transexuals, but damn, they still hates their truckers, and we Brits have lots of those heading off to Dover.

Not as easy as I first thought.

[Grant]

Ulster is growing faster than the rest of the UK. That’s not much of course, but maybe not having another element of devolved government is a good thing?

[Grant]

The Met business is crazy. If you examine the emails of 10,000 people of course you are going to find racists, bigots, psychos etc.

The funniest thing is the wretch of a commissioner. Does he really think that the way to improve the Met is to slag off his serving officers?

[Mick Harper]

This is the great fallacy of heresy hunts. Every individual has said heretical things in the past without being a heretic themselves. All organisations have heretics within them without being heretic themselves.

All societies have heresy-hunters that love burning heretics at the stake.