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War on Terrorism (Politics)
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Boreades


In: finity and beyond
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If you go down to the woods today, you're sure of a big surprise.

Preparing for Putin... in the woods of Wiltshire: Ukrainian soldiers undergo battle training on Salisbury Plain. Troops have been training with the UK’s military in Wiltshire before they are sent to the frontline against invading Russian forces.

Actually that's not the surprising part, this is:

They are being helped by Australian armed forces, who are providing the training alongside British soldiers. Praising Australia as a ‘close and valued defence partner’, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: ‘Australian armed forces are providing vital training for the brave Ukrainian men and women here in the UK, learning the skills they will need to return and defend their country.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11703541/In-woods-Wiltshire-Ukrainian-soldiers-undergo-battle-training-Salisbury-Plain.html

Well. I knew there's a New Zealand in Wiltshire. Having Australia too is a surprise.

He added: ‘We are also progressing our collaboration over the Aukus programme, promoting security and prosperity across the Indo-Pacific.’

Err, what's this Aukus programme then?

A landmark defence and security partnership has been agreed by the leaders of the UK, the United States and Australia today which will protect and defend our shared interests in the Indo-Pacific.

The sun never sets on the Aukus Empire

Under the ‘AUKUS’ alliance, we will enhance the development of joint capabilities and technology sharing, ensuring our people are kept safe from harm and reinforcing our shared goals. AUKUS will foster deeper integration of security and defence-related science, technology, industrial bases and supply chains.

By making Australia part of NATO?

The first initiative under AUKUS will be a collaboration on future nuclear-powered submarines for the Royal Australian Navy. This capability will promote stability in the Indo-Pacific and will be deployed in support of our shared values and interests.The UK has built and operated world-class nuclear-powered submarines for over 60 years. We will therefore bring deep expertise and experience to the project through, for example, the work carried out by Rolls Royce near Derby and BAE Systems in Barrow.

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-us-and-australia-launch-new-security-partnership

Suddenly sitting up and taking notice. I really don't know why nuclear-powered Australians are roaming round Wiltshire woods and upgrading Ukrainians.

Any ideas?

I know Australia is in the Eurovision Song Contest, but NATO too?
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Mick Harper
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As I understand it, this is all cover for the infamous 'submarine swindle'. Australia had entered into a long term contract to buy French submarines and El Froggos had geared up their industry accordingly. After one (two? three?) had been duly delivered, it was suddenly announced -- without consultation with the French -- the dingo-botherers were welching on the deal and going for US/UK submarines instead.

But what that was really all about is something even my sources are tight-lipped about.
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Mick Harper
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The BBC series Putin vs The West is slowly but surely uncovering the fact that recent geopolitics has been mostly triumphs for Putin and disasters for The West. The reason is, naturally, an AE one. The West, being composed of liberal democracies, is obliged to follow a 'moral foreign policy', Russia isn't and doesn't. AE says (a) it is never wise to follow a fixed policy and (b) there is no such concept as 'moral', it is just what you're used to.

The current round began, as the series says, with The Arab Spring. The West spoke with one voice: "Look! Dictatorships are being overthrown in favour of democracies, we must wade in to support this." So in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Syria broadly pro-Western and efficiently nasty dictators were replaced by utter and deadly mayhem (at worst) and slightly nastier dictators with a less western orientation (at best).

And not a single person in a liberal western democracy even thought they had done anything wrong....
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Boreades


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Well, maybe some of us were hesitant to mention Nord or the big “who did it” question. Because we’re never sure which TLA’s are scanning stuff. But it seems like it’s out in the open now. Or to see what little fishes (like us) take the bait.

How America took out the Nord Stream
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

One curiosity is that there were two separate explosions, at separate times, about 17 hours apart. The first at 02:03 in the morning, the second at 19:03 later the same day. Might be me, but it seems like Seymour only mentions one event. Why’s that? Was there a separate team that’s not known to his source?

The other curiosity is who is the source? Is the TLA that did it now the same TLA that’s leaking the story?

If it’s a “limited hangout” operation via a trusted media person, why now?

Dissent in the ranks? Damage limitation? Or what?

Is someone "rehearsing their excuses" because they know something bigger's coming down the pipeline? (sic)
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Mick Harper
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Since we cannot know the ins and outs at this stage we have to be guided by cui bono? Yes, it's true you can construct a case for either side benefitting but the consequences would be so catastrophic if it was found to be the Americans, we can (nearly) rule them out.
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Wile E. Coyote


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Boreades wrote:
Well, maybe some of us were hesitant to mention Nord or the big “who did it” question. Because we’re never sure which TLA’s are scanning stuff. But it seems like it’s out in the open now. Or to see what little fishes (like us) take the bait.

How America took out the Nord Stream
https://seymourhersh.substack.com/p/how-america-took-out-the-nord-stream

One curiosity is that there were two separate explosions, at separate times, about 17 hours apart. The first at 02:03 in the morning, the second at 19:03 later the same day. Might be me, but it seems like Seymour only mentions one event. Why’s that? Was there a separate team that’s not known to his source?

The other curiosity is who is the source? Is the TLA that did it now the same TLA that’s leaking the story?

If it’s a “limited hangout” operation via a trusted media person, why now?

Dissent in the ranks? Damage limitation? Or what?

Is someone "rehearsing their excuses" because they know something bigger's coming down the pipeline? (sic)


Wow, this report by an investigative reporter is getting sooo much publicity. Everybody is being guided by Cui Bono bonkers?

The official German investigation is getting less traction.

Autorney General Peter Frank from The Federal Public Prosecutor's Office said in the interview that the investigation was not yet complete.

"But what I can say is that the suspicion that this was a foreign sabotage action has not yet been substantiated."


Cripes, he is part of the cover up, as this clearly masterminded by an Evil Genius Mastermind called, err, Joe Biden.

You have to admire Joe as he then went on to sabotage the German rail network.

https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20221008-rail-traffic-in-northern-germany-disrupted-by-sabotage
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Mick Harper
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Seymour Hersh used to have a good track record but he seems to be flailing around a bit in recent years. According to Al-Jazeera, he has only one 'source' for the Americans-dunnit theory.

I still can't see what's in for them since even if they want to stop Russian oil exports to the Europeans, the pipeline will be up and running anytime the Europeans and the Russians want it.
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Wile E. Coyote


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To be fair the latest update, on the German invesitgation was quite prominent on the bottom of page 6 of the Shepton Sentinel, so this cannot be anything to do with sensationalist reporting at the expense of real journalism.
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Boreades


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Cui Bono?

The silence on Nordstream says everything, it was in the news for something like one day and then vanished. If there was any evidence Russia was guilty we'd still be hearing about it. Why would Russia blow up its own gas pipe, especially when it offered them an opportunity to apply pressure on Germany and a temptation to Germany to promote a peace settlement? Not to mention the fact that at least two US officials (including Sleepy Joe himself) publicly threatened to destroy it.

“.. As long as Europe remained dependent on the pipelines for cheap natural gas, Washington was afraid that countries like Germany would be reluctant to supply Ukraine with the money and weapons it needed to defeat Russia…"

So the US decided to tell the Germans "You need protection". Shame if that pipeline with cheap gas got damaged. Oh dear, it did, whoops! Now you'll have to buy our shale gas and Norwegian gas (at two or three times the old price). And now that we own you, give us some of those tanks.

As Harpo might say : "Careful ignoral" is the biggest clue.
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Wile E. Coyote


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"But what I can say is that the suspicion that this was a foreign sabotage action has not yet been substantiated."

There was an immediate suspicion, which came, I think from Sweden, that this was sabotage, the Germans have found no evidence up to now to substantiate this. By now they would be in possession of why Sweden thought it was sabotage.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_pipeline_accidents

What is remarkable in this list is the fantastic safety record of the Russians.
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Boreades


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The bigger story (beyond this disaster) which the western MSM has largely ignored is the shift in global economic power. The sanctions on Russia have largely failed - or backfired - and most of the world continues to trade with Russia normally.

From 1945 to nearly now, USA was the biggest bully in the playground. 30 or even 20 years ago the US/EU sanctions could have destroyed the Russian economy as no countries outside a hard core of professional non-conformists like Cuba, North Korea and Venezuela would have risked their relationship with the US and Europe.

Now China is pretty much at parity with the US in geopolitical importance, the EU has demonstrated its impotence, India is increasingly important, and neither India or China have taken any notice of western sanctions. And that has provided the critical cloak to allow Latin America, Africa and most of Asia to ignore us (US/UK/EU). The world is no longer scared of the US and Europe.

The bigger danger is the old playground bully getting increasingly desperate.

Outside US/UK/EU, a lot of countries now have more respect for China than the US. They know China wants to grab the mineral assets (just like US), but China isn't bombing countries to do it. They're doing it via trade deals, like all the Commonwealth countries in Africa that are now covered in Chinese infrastructure, telecoms and transport.

BRICS is expanding.
https://impakter.com/brics-expansion-five-new-members-in-2023/

Not that folks in the UK would know. No doubt Ukraine and Russia have their own very active equivalents of the Iraqi Minister of Information - but we've got Boris Johnson, clown-in-chief.

"The Show Must Go On"
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Wile E. Coyote


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Boreades wrote:
The bigger story (beyond this disaster) which the western MSM has largely ignored is the shift in global economic power. The sanctions on Russia have largely failed - or backfired - and most of the world continues to trade with Russia normally.


Not really. Before the War, Russia had a high trade surplus, and a strong for them economy. Therefore they could weather the shock of western sanctions. You can get round sanctions if you have money and are willing to pay over the odds and work with new but untested supply chains. The problem is though that you can't grow your economy like that. You can't also get western imports and spares that middle class and rich Russians used to really like. But to be fair, they can and did avoid austerity. Can they keep going like this? Probably. It's going to be a slow decline.
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Boreades


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Wile E. Coyote wrote:
You can get round sanctions, if you have money, and are willing to pay over the odds and work with new but untested supply chains..

Exactly, that's how come the price of oil in the UK is coming down. We're still buying Russian oil, it just comes indirect from places like India and Malaysia.

Wile E. Coyote wrote:
You can't also get western imports and spares that middle class and rich Russians used to really like.


That's nonsense. You just said "You can get round sanctions".

If we can still buy Russian goods (despite sanctions), so can Russia still buy Western goods, via third parties. That's if we're still able to produce these Western goods, as one of the unintended results of the sanctions has been to cripple German manufacturing, and other key manufacturing industries just stop. Because things like the cost of electricity (x3 or x4) make it impossible to be competitive.
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Mick Harper
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All this is irrelevant on timescales relevant to the Ukraine War. Western sanctions are a prime example of democracies having to be seen to be punishing the bad guy. Irrespective of whether it does, irrespective of whether it hurts the good guys more.
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Boreades


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Mick Harper wrote:
AWestern sanctions are a prime example of democracies having to be seen to be punishing the bad guy.


As the sanctions are hurting us most, we're the bad guys, punishing ourselves.

Karma is a bitch.
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